Robert Aps

Smart management of the Baltic Sea fishery system: Myth or reality?

System is smart if its negative feedback loop is constantly working to reduce the difference between the actual and desired states (goals) of the system. Goals itself should be SMART — specific, measurable, agreed upon, realistic and time-based. A precondition for smart management is the availability of a negative feedback loop based regulatory measure that can move the system towards desired state. Fishing fleet overcapacity and the associated low economic resilience impose a high political pressure to increase short-term fishing opportunities at the expense of the future sustainability of the industry. This pressure is leading to overfishing and it is hampering the efficiency of the systems negative feedback process. However, it is believed that introducing the Individual Transferable Quotas (ITQ) system as a basis for the Baltic Sea fisheries management would contribute into achieving both the Maximum Sustainable Yield (MSY) and the Maximum Economic Yield (MEY) objectives through the actual removal of excess fishing capacity. It is believed also that the ITQ system would create and enforce the missing negative feedback loop that will be constantly pushing the fishery system towards higher economic efficiency and ecological sustainability. In addition, wider implementation of the Marine Stewardship Councils (MSC) environmental standard for sustainable fishing could be seen as an important step towards smart fishery management system. MSC certification could enforce the market/consumer pressure for matching the fishing capacity and available fishery resources. Move towards smarter fishery management would contribute also to the success of emerging Marine Spatial Planning activities and to development of the climate change related special adaptation strategies.

The Baltic Sea circulation modelling and assessment of marine pollution

Abstract The problem of mathematical modelling of the large-scale circulation of the Baltic Sea is considered. Marine hydrodynamics equations are written in the spherical coordinate system with a displaced point of the North Pole. The geographical North Pole is shifted to the vicinity of St. Petersburg to increase the spatial resolution of the Gulf of Finland. The free surface, sigma-coordinate primitive equation model under the Boussinesq, continuity, and hydrostatic assumptions is solved numerically. The problem of estimation of the pollution of some ‘protected’ marine sub-area by a passive tracer by means of the introducing an adjoint equation for the sensitivity function is formulated. The sensitivity function specifies the contribution of each basin point to the total pollution of the ‘protected area’.

Regional Environmental Sensitivity Index (RESI) Classification of Estonian Shoreline (Baltic Sea)

ABSTRACT Aps, R.; Tõnisson, H.; Suursaar, Ü., and Orviku, K, 2016. Regional Environmental Sensitivity Index (RESI) Classification of Estonian Shoreline (Baltic Sea). In: Vila-Concejo, A.; Bruce, E.; Kennedy, D.M., and McCarroll, R.J. (eds.), Proceedings of the 14th International Coastal Symposium (Sydney, Australia). Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue, No. 75, pp. 972 - 976. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208. Despite improving navigation safety measures, there is a growing risk of accidental oil spills and associated oil pollution on the Baltic Sea, an area which has been designated as a Particularly Sensitive Sea Area by the International Maritime Organization. Environmental Sensitivity Index (ESI) maps have been an integral component of oil-spill contingency planning and response in the United States since 1979, serving as a quick reference for oil spill responders. The ESI ranks shoreline into 10 classes in relation to sensitivity, natural persistence of oil, and ease of clean-up. Some countries outside the US have adopted the ESI approach to classify their own shorelines for similar oil spill contingency planning, the resulting maps being referred to as Regional Environmental Sensitivity Index (RESI) maps. However, problems arise when applying the classification system. This article highlights the difficulties of applying the standard ESI classification to the Estonian shoreline and suggests a potential RESI classification scheme for Estonia that would divide cliff shores among sensitivity classes 1 and 5, with most of them into class 5, the designation for those that are the most difficult to clean up (mixed sediments on the beach and no access from the land). An Estonian RESI map layers are integrated into the SmartResponse Web - an analytical tool for emergency response and recovery that is used to combine the information related to the accident, development of an oil spill and information on environmental sensitivity of the Baltic Sea shoreline. The SmartResponse Web enables the identification and dynamic assessment of environmental risks as a continuous process for purposes of determining best practices for reducing or even eliminating the risks, and it is used by the Estonian oil spill response authorities for contingency planning, training and in emergency situation.

Incorporating dynamic factors to the Environmental Sensitivity Index (ESI) shoreline classification - Estonian and Spanish examples

ABSTRACT Aps, R., Tõnisson, H, Anfuso, G., Perales, J.A., Orviku, K., Suursaar, Ü. 2014. Incorporating dynamic factors to the Environmental Sensitivity Index (ESI) shoreline classification - Estonian and Spanish examples. In: Green, A.N. and Cooper, J.A.G. (eds.), Proceedings 13th International Coastal Symposium (Durban, South Africa), Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 70, pp. 235–240, ISSN 0749-0208. Oil transportation is growing in the Baltic Sea area and especially in the Gulf of Finland where it will reach approximately 180–200 million tons a year by 2020. Growing oil transportation is considerably contributing to the risk of accidental spill-related shoreline oiling. This paper focuses on amending the Environmental Sensitivity Index (ESI) related shoreline classification to local conditions by dynamically changing the categorization of the shoreline in terms of its susceptibility to spilled oil caused by extreme meteorological events. This takes into consideration a number of natural physical factors. The paper presents the results of two European case studies: the Estonian shoreline of the Gulf of Finland (Baltic Sea), and the Spanish coast of the Gibraltar Strait. Susceptibility to spilled oil of some categories of the Estonian shoreline (sandy shores, till shores and gravel shores) occasionally changes over time from low to high sensitivity and back; especially conditioned to the influence of heavy storms. The studies carried out in Spain revealed a well recognizable indirect proportionality between foreshore slope and the tidal range. At many locations, the dynamic morphological characteristics of the beach appeared to be largely determined by contouring and specific conditions that are modifying the initial ESI related categorization of the sandy beaches concerned. The novelty of this work is in attempt to move from the standard ESI related, and locally adapted, static shoreline classification towards more dynamic shoreline monitoring based on characterization of the elements sensitive to oil pollution on shorelines.

Central Baltic Sea herring: effect of environmental trends and fishery management

Uncertainty is an endemic condition of the Baltic Sea herring (Clupea harengus membras, L) fishery management. It is a condition exacerbated by the fishing fleet overcapacity and consequent exploitation of the herring stock at a level believed to be unsustainable. Some sources of uncertainty are mainly related to biology and fishing technique: the unsolved problem of herring assessment and management units, the recruitment–environment relationship and the reduction in mean weights-at-age, uncertain ageing of fish, the problem of unaccounted fishing mortality caused by the fish selection through the trawl net. Fishing fleet overcapacity is believed to be behind of the regulatory overfishing when setting the Total Allowable Catches (TACs) higher than the scientific advice (decision overfishing) and tolerating the extensive underreporting of catches (implementation overfishing). Two scenarios for the Central Baltic Sea herring fishery management options are constructed and the Bayesian networks are used to represent and update uncertainties encountered in the process of the management related situation assessment. First scenario represents the current status of the fishery management resulting in fishing mortality (F) higher than FMSY – the fishing mortality that corresponds to the Maximum Sustainable Yield (MSY). The second scenario demonstrates the assumed potential impact of economic incentives (e.g. zoning, individual transferable quotas (ITQs), territorial use rights etc.) on the reduction of excessive fishing capacity and bringing actual fishing mortality closer to FMSY.

Environmental impact of port construction: Port of Sillamäe case study (Gulf of Finlad, Baltic Sea)

The aim of the study was to assess and map the location and status of environmentally sensitive areas (valuable marine habitats) near the Port of Sillama umle, and to assess the potential impacts from the dredging and disposal operations on the local marine ecology (especially on valuable habitats). The observations and field measurements were carried out there since the time when the dumping site of radioactive substances from the former uranium enrichment plant at Sillama umle was in use. The rate of erosion of the narrow separating dam of the dumping site and the velocities of accumulation of shore sediment were assessed in this study. The monitoring of seashore dynamics in recent years has been focused on an area east of the port. While being an attractive recreation area for the local people, that area is characterized by active natural processes. Repetitive measurements are carried out with the aim of monitoring the impact of the port on shore processes, particularly on increasing erosion of the shores. The most recent investigations since 2004 have not revealed any direct impact of the port facilities on shore dynamics. At the same time, changes caused by extremely strong storms of January 2005 or of winter 2006-2007 are evident. Over the last 30 years, the average freezing date has shifted from December to January and ice break-up begins earlier. As a result, the ice-free period, when wave action can freely access the coast, gets gradually longer, and it happens mainly on account of more stormy autumn and winter months. Dredging and disposal operations may have either direct (removal or burial) or/and indirect effects (enhanced turbidity and sedimentation rates, and changes in hydrographic regime) on benthic invertebrates. Thus, the magnitude and direction of the effects depend on the processes involved. The data obtained before, during and after dredging and disposal revealed the re-establishment of directly affected communities following a year after the cessation of disturbance. The results of special monitoring program concluded that the environmental impact of the dredging operations on the benthic communities was minimal to moderate. Using the results of hydrodynamic modeling of the area at the Port of Sillama umle, the behavior of suspended sediment plumes from dredging and disposal of concrete material was modeled using FRESCO high resolution, sigma coordinate, non-hydrostatic, baroclinic model system. Wind waves are calculated by narrow directional approximation model and the turbulent mixing based on the k-omega turbulence closer model. Numerical experiments have been performed for four nested marine basins with different space resolution. In the highest resolution nested domain the horizontal grid size was approximately 1/10 of nautical miles. Modeling results included spatial information on suspended sediment concentrations and sedimentation rates.

STAMP-Mar based safety management of maritime navigation in the Gulf of Finland (Baltic Sea)

The Baltic Sea Area is a globally unique and sensitive brackish-water ecosystem. More than 2,000 ships are on the way in the Baltic Sea Area on an average day. The Baltic Sea Area was designated as a Particularly Sensitive Sea Area (PSSA) at IMO Marine Environment Protection Committees 53rd session in July 2005. Contemporary hierarchical maritime navigation safety management system from global to local level is considered as a basis for implementation of the System Theoretic Accident Model and Processes (STAMP) approach to architecting the maritime navigation safety control system. This paper introduces the STAMP-Mar research concept and application positions under development aimed at dynamic safety management of eco-socio-technical maritime navigation system that will network existing systems, systems already under development, and systems to be developed to meet the system safety requirements and to enable high levels of joint connectivity, situational awareness and understanding. Issue is exemplified by outlining the systems theoretic STAMP-Mar framework applied to safety management of maritime navigation in the Gulf of Finland (Baltic Sea).

A Concept of Bayesian Regulation in Fisheries Management

Stochastic variability of biological processes and uncertainty of stock properties compel fisheries managers to look for tools to improve control over the stock. Inspired by animals exploiting hidden prey, we have taken a biomimetic approach combining catch and effort in a concept of Bayesian regulation (BR). The BR provides a real-time Bayesian stock estimate, and can operate without separate stock assessment. We compared the performance of BR with catch-only regulation (CR), alternatively operating with N-target (the stock size giving maximum sustainable yield, MSY) and F-target (the fishing mortality giving MSY) on a stock model of Baltic Sea herring. N-targeted BR gave 3% higher yields than F-targeted BR and CR, and 7% higher yields than N-targeted CR. The BRs reduced coefficient of variance (CV) in fishing mortality compared to CR by 99.6% (from 25.2 to 0.1) when operated with F-target, and by about 80% (from 158.4 to 68.4/70.1 depending on how the prior is set) in stock size when operated with N-target. Even though F-targeted fishery reduced CV in pre-harvest stock size by 19–22%, it increased the dominant period length of population fluctuations from 20 to 60–80 years. In contrast, N-targeted BR made the periodic variation more similar to white noise. We discuss the conditions when BRs can be suitable tools to achieve sustainable yields while minimizing undesirable fluctuations in stock size or fishing effort.

Numerical model of the Baltic Sea circulation

Abstract The problem of numerical simulation of the Baltic Sea large-scale circulation is considered. The Baltic Sea numerical model is based on the two previous models: the model of ocean dynamics developed at the Institute of Numerical Mathematics of the RAS and the FRESCO model of marine hydroecosystem developed at the Estonian Marine Institute, University of Tartu. The model is based on primitive equations written in spherical σ coordinates with a free surface in the hydrostatic and Boussinesq approximations. The structure of numerical algorithm is described. The algorithm is based on the method of multicomponent splitting and includes splitting by physical processes and spatial coordinates. The equations of sea dynamics are written in a symmetrized form. The problem is split into several energetically balanced subsystems (splitting by physical processes). Each subsystem can be additionally split into subsystems of a simpler structure (splitting by spatial coordinates). The numerical experiment consists in the calculation of the Baltic Sea hydrodynamic fields with the spatial horizontal resolution of ~3.5 km and 25 vertical σ-levels nonuniformly distributed over the depth. The atmospheric forcing is calculated according to the Era-Interim data, the calculation period is 2 years: 2007 and 2008. The results of numerical simulation demonstrate good resemblance to observation data, as well as the results of the Baltic Sea dynamics computation obtained from other models.

Risk theory based solution to the problem of optimal vessel route

Abstract The problem of ship route optimization is studied in the paper. A functional is introduced so that it includes the terms corresponding to the deviation of the ship trajectory from the preliminary route and to the risk of crossing for the trajectories of the ship and a dynamically moving dangerous object. Theminimization problem of the introduced functional is posed to determine the optimal route of the ship. The problem is studied for the solvability, the existence, and uniqueness conditions are obtained for the solution. Results of numerical experiments are presented.