Robert B. Durand

An Intimate Portrait of the Individual Investor

We examine a range of investment decisions, and ensuing portfolio performance, and established that they have statistically significant associations with personality traits captured by Costa and McRaes [1992] operationalization of Normans [1963] ‘Big Five’ (Negative Emotion, Extraversion, Openness to Experience, Agreeableness and Conscientiousness), Bems [1977] psychological gender traits (Masculinity and Femininity) and Jacksons [1976] personality traits of Preference for Innovation and Risk Taking Propensity.

Momentum in Australia—A Note

Our note examines the momentum effect in Australia using the J-month/K-month methodology of Jegadeesh and Titman (1993, 2001). Our sample consists of stocks listed on the Australian stock exchange from January 1980 to December 2001. We do not find evidence for a momentum effect in Australia during this period. Rather, we find evidence of significantly positive returns for ‘loser’ portfolios in July-the first month of the Australian financial year.

Is Liquidity the Missing Link

Durand et al. (2006a) argue that the Australian market is both internationally integrated and domestically segmented. They find that the US-based three-factor model captures returns of the largest stocks in Australia (evidence of international integration), but that it is unable to account for the returns of the smallest stocks (evidence of domestic segmentation). This study resolves the puzzle left by Durand et al. (2006a). Incorporating a liquidity factor provides the missing link in their analysis: it results in a model that permits both the international integration of the largest stocks and the model can account for the returns of the smallest stocks. Our analysis highlights the important role of liquidity in Australian asset pricing.

Who Moved Asian-Pacific Stock Markets? A Further Consideration Of The Impact of the US and Japan

This paper extends prior research by jointly incorporating market indices, interest rates (both short- and long-term) and spot cross exchange rates, to investigate the relationship among seven Pacific-Rim (Australia, Hong Kong, South Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand) markets, to changes in financial variables in the US and Japan, We find that the US stock market Granger-caused movements in all the markets being considered and that the Japanese stock market had a significant effect in half of the markets included in the study. Other financial variables play no, or little, part in influencing the markets being studied.

iShares Australia: a clinical study in international behavioral finance

Abstract Using iShares Australia returns as a proxy for the influence of overseas investors in the Australian market, we found that U.S.-based investors in the Australian market overreact to contemporaneous and lagged returns of the U.S. equity market, the U.S.–Australian dollar exchange rate, and past iShares Australia returns. In response to changing conditional risk, however, investors behave rationally: increasing (decreasing) expected risk is associated with falling (rising) prices. In light of these findings, we hypothesize that behavioral finance might explain the observed correlations between international equity markets.

Overconfidence, overreaction and personality

Purpose - – The purpose of this paper is to systematically profile investors’ personality traits to examine if, and how, those traits are associated with phenomena observed in financial markets. In particular, the paper looks at overconfidence and overreaction in an experimental foreign exchange market. Design/methodology/approach - – The paper measures the personality of the subjects using the short form of the NEO-PIR instrument, the NEO-FFI developed by Costa and McRae (1992) which is based on Normans (1963) “Big Five” personality constructs of Findings - – The paper demonstrates that personality traits are associated with overconfidence and overreaction in financial markets. The paper presents meta-analysis which facilitates the development of a posteriori theories of how particular traits affect investment; there are important roles for Originality/value - – A typical behavioral finance paper might find an empirical regularity in prices and, on the basis of such patterns, infer the underlying psychology motivating the behavior of investors. The approach differs from this caricature of the “typical” behavioral finance paper. The paper does not infer the underlying psychology of investors from patterns in prices. Rather, the paper learns about investors by systematically profiling their personality traits. The paper then demonstrates how those traits are associated with the prices generated by the investors the authors study. In focussing on the role of individual personality, the paper refocusses behavioral finance on the individuals who set prices.

Financial distress: Lifecycle and corporate restructuring

A firms lifecycle consists of birth, growth, maturity and decline. We examine the strategies that firms choose when facing financial distress and present evidence that these choices are influenced by the corporate lifecycle. This influence is most pronounced in the choice of financial restructuring strategies such as reducing dividends or changing capital structure. We also examine if the way firms face financial distress affects the likelihood of recovery. We find that reducing investment and dividends are associated with recovery for all firms, but there is little influence of lifecycle.

The flight-to-quality effect: a copula-based analysis

We derive and estimate a copula combining the features of the Frank and Gumbel copulas to analyse the relationship between equity and long-term bond returns. Our analysis of quarterly returns from 1952 to 2003 finds that, in general, there is a positive relationship between equity returns and bond returns. In extreme situations, however, there is approximately a one-in-seven chance of a flight-to-quality effect where large negative equity returns are associated with large positive bond returns.

Are ethical investments good

Our study considers whether ethical investments are also good investments. In contrast with previous studies, we utilize long-run event study methodology to examine abnormal returns associated with firms being included in, and dropped from, the MSCI KLD400 Social Index (MSCI KLD400). We find that there are positive and statistically significant long-run abnormal returns for firms being included in the MSCI KLD400. These abnormal returns are associated with higher shareholdings by institutional investors (who are subject to higher public scrutiny), higher analyst coverage and higher growth opportunities.

On the performance of the minimum VaR portfolio

Alexander and Baptista [2002. Economic implications of using a mean-value-at-risk (VaR) model for portfolio selection: A comparison with mean–variance analysis. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 26: 1159–93] develop the concept of mean-VaR efficiency for portfolios and demonstrate its very close connection with mean–variance efficiency. In particular, they identify the minimum VaR portfolio as a special type of mean–variance efficient portfolio. Our empirical analysis finds that, for commonly used VaR breach probabilities, minimum VaR portfolios yield ex post returns that conform well with the specified VaR breach probabilities and with return/risk expectations. These results provide a considerable extension of evidence supporting the empirical validity and tractability of the mean-VaR efficiency concept.