Robert Bornstein

Urban heat islands and summertime convective thunderstorms in Atlanta: three case studies

Data from both 27 sites in the Atlanta mesonet surface meteorological network and eight National Weather Service sites were analyzed for the period from 26 July to 3 August 1996. Analysis of the six precipitation events over the city during the period (each on a different day) showed that its urban heat island (UHI) induced a convergence zone that initiated three of the storms at different times of the day, i.e., 0630, 0845, and 1445 EDT. Previous analysis has shown that New York City (NYC) effects summer daytime thunderstorm formation and/or movement. That study found that during nearly calm regional flow conditions, the NYC UHI initiates convective activity. Moving thunderstorms, however, tended to bifurcate and to move around the city, due to its building barrier effect. The current Atlanta results thus agree with the NYC results with respect to thunderstorm initiation.

Urban-rural wind velocity differences☆

Abstract Wind speeds along a streamflow line through New York City are found to be decreased below (increased above) those at sites outside of the city during periods with regional wind speeds above (below) about 4 m/s. The decrease is attributed to increased values of the surface roughness parameter in the city, as compared to values in nearby non-urban regions. The increase is associated with accelerations produced by a well-developed urban heat island. Cyclonic turning of the flow along the streamflow line through the city during the high wind speed periods results from decreases in the value of the Coriolis force associated with the increased urban frictional drag. During periods of acceleration over the city, either cyclonic or anticyclonic turning was found, due to a combination of two effects. The origin of the flow was found to influence the direction of the turning over the city during night-time heat island hours. For easterly flows the origin is a highly stable rural region, while for westerly flows it is most likely one of the less stable, but aerodynamically smooth, water bodies around New York City.

Effects of uncertainties in meteorological inputs on urban airshed model predictions and ozone control strategies

Abstract Although well-recognized within the photochemical modeling community, the effect of uncertainties in meteorological input on the urban airshed model (UAM) output has not been systematically evaluated. In this study, the UAM has been applied to investigate the sensitivity of ozone predictions to the choices in wind fields and mixing height profiles for the data-sparse New York metropolitan area. A set of three wind fields, in combination with spatially varying and spatially invariant mixing heights, is investigated for the July 1988 ozone episode. In general, model-predicted ozone levels were higher under the spatially varying mixing height (SVM) option than under the spatially invariant mixing height (SIM) option. SVM based UAM simulations provided better agreement between the predicted and measured ozone concentrations than SIM-based UAM simulations. However, from the regulatory standpoint, predicted ozone concentrations based on either of these mixing height options are within the range considered as acceptable. UAM simulations with emission reductions of 75% NOx and 25% VOCs (NOx-focused) reveal that the improvement in peak ozone levels under the SIM option is larger than that under the SVM option, whereas the emission reduction scenario of 25% NOx and 75% VOCs (VOC-focused) yields greater improvement in peak ozone under the SVM option than with the SIM option. Given the strong influence of mixing heights and wind fields on UAM model predictions in data-sparse areas, it is imperative that uncertainties in development of ozone abatement plans be quantified.

Observed 1970-2005 cooling of summer daytime temperatures in coastal California.

Abstract This study evaluated 1950–2005 summer [June–August (JJA)] mean monthly air temperatures for two California air basins: the South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB) and the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA). The study focuses on the more rapid post-1970 warming period, and its daily minima temperature Tmin and maxima temperature Tmax values were used to produce average monthly values and spatial distributions of trends for each air basin. Additional analyses included concurrent SSTs, 40-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-40) sea level coastal pressure gradients, and GCM-downscaled average temperature Tave values. Results for all 253 California National Weather Service (NWS) Cooperative Observer Program (COOP) sites together showed increased Tave values (0.23°C decade−1); asymmetric warming, as Tmin values increase faster than Tmax values (0.27° versus 0.04°C decade−1) and thus decreased daily temperature range (DTR) values (0.15°C decade−1). The spatial distribution of...

The Nature, Theory, and Modeling of Atmospheric Planetary Boundary Layers

This work was sponsored by NATO Programme No. 982062, “Security through Science.” Additional support came from the Croatian Meteorological and Hydrological Service (CMHS), the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), the Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI), the Croatian Ministry of Science, and the EU Marie Curie Chair Project MEXC-CT-2003-509742 on “Theory, Modelling, and Roles in Earth Systems.”

Forecast Issues in the Urban Zone: Report of the 10th Prospectus Development Team of the U.S. Weather Research Program

The 10th Prospectus Development Team (PDT-10) of the U.S. Weather Research Program was charged with iden- tifying research needs and opportunities related to the short-term prediction of weather and air quality in urban forecast zones. Weather has special and significant impacts on large numbers of the U.S. population who live in major urban areas. It is recognized that urban users have different weather information needs than do their rural counterparts. Further, large urban areas can impact local weather and hydrologic processes in various ways. The recommendations of the team emphasize that human life and well-being in urban areas can be protected and enjoyed to a significantly greater degree. In particular, PDT-10 supports the need for 1) improved access to real-time weather information, 2) improved tailoring of weather data to the specific needs of individual user groups, and 3) more user-specific forecasts of weather and air quality. Specific recommendations fall within nine thematic areas: 1) development of a user-oriented weather database; 2) focused research on the impacts of visibility and icing on transportation; 3) improved understanding and forecasting of winter storms; 4) improved understanding and forecasting of convective storms; 5) improved forecasting of intense/ severe lightning; 6) further research into the impacts of large urban areas on the location and intensity of urban convec- tion; 7) focused research on the application of mesoscale forecasting in support of emergency response and air quality; 8) quantification and reduction of uncertainty in hydrological, meteorological, and air quality modeling; and 9) the need for improved observing systems. An overarching recommendation of PDT-10 is that research into understanding and predicting weather impacts in urban areas should receive increased emphasis by the atmospheric science community at large, and that urban weather should be a focal point of the U.S. Weather Research Program.

Observed Spatial Characteristics of Beijing Urban Climate Impacts on Summer Thunderstorms

AbstractThis study investigates interactive effects from the Beijing urban area on temperature, humidity, wind speed and direction, and precipitation by use of hourly automatic weather station data from June to August 2008–12. Results show the Beijing summer urban heat island (UHI) as a multicenter distribution (corresponding to underlying land-use features), with stronger nighttime than daytime values (averages of 1.7° vs 0.8°C, respectively). Specific humidity was lower in urban Beijing than in surrounding nonurban areas, and this urban dry island is stronger during day than night (maximum of −2.4 vs −1.9 g kg−1). Wind direction is affected by both a mountain–valley-breeze circulation and by urbanization. Morning low-level flows converged into the strong UHI, but afternoon and evening southerly winds were bifurcated by an urban building-barrier-induced divergence. Summer thunderstorms also thus bifurcated and bypassed the urban center because of the building-barrier effect during both daytime and nightt...

Annual and Diurnal Wind Patterns in the City of São Paulo

The major topographic, mesoscale, and urban influences on the wind patterns of the City of São Paulo are characterized using one year of surface wind velocity data observed at 11 surface stations within its urban limits. The data was used to study the diurnal and annual variations of wind velocity and horizontal wind divergence within the city. Results showed that the circulation over the investigated area is dominated by three major factors: sea breeze; mountain-valley circulations; and urban effects, such as roughness, building-barrier, and urban heat island. The sea breeze was found to be the dominant feature of the monthly-averaged diurnal variation of São Paulo surface winds during the eight warmest months of the year. The sea breeze front induces a velocity minimum at the time of its passage and a post-frontal afternoon velocity maximum. Mountain-valley thermal effects on the flow can be seen in the temporal divergence/convergence patterns. These thermal effects tend to be more important during colder months, at night, and when the wind velocities are low. Nighttime downslope convergent flows are present over the city during winter and spring and daytime upslope divergent flows are present over the city during summer months.

Climate Impacts of Land-Cover and Land-Use Changes in Tropical Islands under Conditions of Global Climate Change

AbstractLand-cover and land-use (LCLU) changes have significant climate impacts in tropical coastal regions with the added complexity of occurring within the context of a warming climate. The individual and combined effects of these two factors in tropical islands are investigated by use of an integrated mesoscale atmospheric modeling approach, taking the northeastern region of Puerto Rico as the test case. To achieve this goal, an ensemble of climate simulations is performed, combining two LCLU and global warming scenarios. Reconstructed agricultural maps and sea surface temperatures form the past (1955–59) scenario, while the present (2000–04) scenario is supported with high-resolution remote sensing LCLU data. Here, the authors show that LCLU changes produced the largest near-surface (2-m AGL) air temperature differences over heavily urbanized regions and that these changes do not penetrate the boundary layer. The influence of the global warming signal induces a positive inland gradient of maximum temp...

Research priorities in observing and modeling urban weather and climate

In 2007, the world reached the unprecedented milestone of half of its people living in cities, and that proportion is projected to be 60% in 2030. The combined effect of global climate change and rapid urban growth, accompanied by economic and industrial development, will likely make city residents more vulnerable to a number of urban environmental problems, including extreme weather and climate conditions, sea-level rise, poor public health and air quality, atmospheric transport of accidental or intentional releases of toxic material, and limited water resources. One fundamental aspect of predicting the future risks and defining mitigation strategies is to understand the weather and regional climate affected by cities. For this reason, dozens of researchers from many disciplines and nations attended the Urban Weather and Climate Workshop.1 Twenty-five students from Chinese universities and institutes also took part. The presentations by the workshops participants span a wide range of topics, from the interaction between the urban climate and energy consumption in climate-change environments to the impact of urban areas on storms and local circulations, and from the impact of urbanization on the hydrological cycle to air quality and weather prediction.