Robert D. Baller

The Spatial Patterning of County Homicide Rates: An Application of Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis

The possibility that homicides can spread from one geographic area toanother has been entertained for some time by social scientists, yetsystematic efforts to demonstrate the existence, or estimate the strength,of such a diffusion process are just beginning. This paper uses exploratoryspatial data analysis (ESDA) to examine the distribution of homicides in 78counties in, or around, the St. Louis metropolitan area for two timeperiods: a period of relatively stable homicide (1984–1988) and aperiod of generally increasing homicide (1988–1993). The findingsreveal that homicides are distributed nonrandomly, suggestive of positivespatial autocorrelation. Moreover, changes over time in the distribution ofhomicides suggest the possible diffusion of lethal violence out of onecounty containing a medium-sized city (Macon County) into two nearbycounties (Morgan and Sangamon Counties) located to the west. Althoughtraditional correlates of homicide do not account for its nonrandom spatialdistribution across counties, we find some evidence that more affluentareas, or those more rural or agricultural areas, serve as barriers againstthe diffusion of homicides. The patterns of spatial distribution revealedthrough ESDA provide an empirical foundation for the specification ofmultivariate models which can provide formal tests for diffusion processes.

The Legacy of Lynching and Southern Homicide

This article assesses the influence of the legacy of lynching on homicide levels within the contemporary South. Drawing upon literature relating to the brutalizing effects of capital punishment and “self-help” in the absence of access to formal law, this study hypothesizes that a measure of the frequency of lynching in the past will exhibit positive effects on contemporary homicide levels for the overall population and for race-specific populations (white and black offending). The results of negative binomial regression analyses of counties and county-clusters in the South are generally consistent with expectations. The measure of lynching exhibits consistently positive effects on overall homicide levels and levels of black offending in models with controls for other theoretically relevant covariates. For whites, the effect of lynching emerges for a particular type of homicide: interracial homicides that evolve out of interpersonal conflicts. At a general level, our findings underscore the relevance of the historical context for understanding variation in contemporary levels of homicide.

Contemporary Hate Crimes, Law Enforcement, and the Legacy of Racial Violence

This article investigates the association between past lynchings (1882 to 1930) and contemporary law enforcement responses to hate crimes in the United States. While prior research indicates a positive correlation between past levels of lynching and current social control practices against minority groups, we posit an inverse relationship for facets of social control that are protective of minorities. Specifically, we hypothesize that contemporary hate crime policing and prosecution will be less vigorous where lynching was more prevalent prior to 1930. Analyses show that levels of past lynching are associated with three outcome variables germane to hate crime policing and prosecution, but the effect of lynching is partly contingent on the presence of a minority group threat. That is, past lynching combined with a sizeable black population largely suppresses (1) police compliance with federal hate crime law, (2) police reports of hate crimes that target blacks, and in some analyses (3) the likelihood of prosecuting a hate crime case. Our findings have implications for research on law and intergroup conflict, historical continuity in the exercise of state social control, and theories that emphasize minority group threat.

The Interchangeability of Homicide Data Sources: A Spatial Analytical Perspective

The authors extend the work of Wiersema, Loftin and McDowall (2000) by assessing the interchangeability of Supplemental Homicide Report (SHR) and National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) homicide rates in the context of spatial analysis. Conclusions drawn from spatial analyses may be affected by the choice of data source if the underrecording of homicide tends to cluster in geographic space more strongly in one data source than the other. Such a situation could alter indications of homicide rate clustering and substantive conclusions drawn from multivariate spatial regression models. Results indicate that although these data sources are interchangeable for urban counties, spatial effects and the effects of social structural factors vary by data source for rural counties.

The Heritage of Herding and Southern Homicide Examining the Ecological Foundations of the Code of Honor Thesis

The authors examine the ecological foundations of the thesis of a “code of honor” as an explanation for southern homicide. Specifically, they consider the effects of indicators of ethnic groups that migrated from herding economies (the Scotch-Irish), cattle and pig herding, and the relative importance of agricultural production across different areas in the Old South. Using county-level data on argument-related White male homicide offenders (1983 to 1998) from the Federal Bureau of Investigations Supplementary Homicide Reports, the authors observe the theoretically expected positive interaction between the proxy measure of the presence of Scotch-Irish communities, namely, the percentage of churches that were Presbyterian in 1850, and the number of cattle and pigs per capita in 1850. They also find a negative effect of an index of crop production in 1850 on argument-related offending. The overall pattern of these findings is highly consistent with the herding thesis advanced by Nisbett and Cohen.

Structural Covariates of Violent Crime Rates in Germany: Exploratory Spatial Analyses of Kreise

This research applies the techniques of exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) and spatial regression modeling to explain variation in robbery and assault rates across 413 districts or “Kreise” in Germany. The findings from ESDA reveal a distinct clustering of low rates in southern Germany, especially for robbery. The results of the spatial regression analyses indicate that for the nation at large, Kreise with high robbery and assault rates tend to be those with comparatively high levels of socioeconomic deprivation and a more urbanized environment, findings consistent with those commonly reported with data for areal units in the USA. We also observe net regional effects for the south in the regression models that pose puzzles for further inquiry into the German case, and “null effects” of the eastern region that have implications for more general debates of the potentially criminogenic consequences of the transition to market economies.

Is There Such a Thing as “Defended Community Homicide”?: The Necessity of Methods Triangulation

Abstract Data on homicides in Buffalo, New York, are analyzed to demonstrate the importance of “methods triangulation” for assessing the validity of quantitative measures. Defended community homicides are quantitatively operationalized as acts that occur in the offenders community against a nonlocal victim. Poisson models provide strong support for the existence of defended community homicide, which is significantly more common in residentially stable and racially homogenous neighborhoods. However, subsequent qualitative analyses of the victim and offender characteristics and motives of these homicides undermine the “defended community” concept. Qualitative analyses are necessary to assess the validity of quantitative measures in criminological research.