Robert D. Emerson

Imports and the Supply of Winter Tomatoes: An Application of Rational Expectations

A model of the Florida tomato industry is formulated under the hypothesis that growers make production decisions as rational economic agents. This assumption implies that anticipated Mexican tomato imports as well as other economic variables are taken into account when the planting decision is made. Maximum likelihood estimation methods are used to solve the simultaneous equations model, and the implications of the models reduced form are analyzed. The empirical findings are consistent with the rational expectations hypothesis that producers respond to market information in its entirety when making acreage decisions.

Migratory Labor and Agriculture

Farm workers are shown to respond strongly to economic incentives to seasonally migrate for work. The economic model is specified with separate earnings structures for migratory and nonmigratory work, and a reservation wage for migration is specified to reflect the choice between migratory and nonmigratory work. The empirical model adjusts for self-selectivity in the sample and demonstrates that domestic farm workers sort themselves into migratory and nonmigratory workers in a manner consistent with the theory of comparative advantage. Implications for immigration and government employment and training programs are considered.

U.S.-Canadian Tomato Wars: An Economist Tries to Make Sense Out of Recent Antidumping Suits

U.S. growers filed an antidumping case against Canadian growers of greenhouse-grown tomatoes, alleging that U.S. growers were being injured, or threatened with material injury, by imports from Canada. The U.S. Department of Commerce determined that imports of greenhouse-grown tomatoes were being sold in U.S. markets at less than fair market value. The U.S. International Trade Commission determined the “like product” to be all fresh market tomatoes, concluding the domestic industry was not materially injured. Anecdotal evidence used by the Commission Department in determining like product ignores the wealth of knowledge that economics can add. An economic model is proposed for purposes of determining like product.

ENTREPRENEURSHIP, SANCTIONS, AND LABOR CONTRACTING

Entrepreneurs innovate their individual business organizations not only to deal with production and price risks, but also to cope with the risk of sanctions or penalties imposed by societys laws and regulations. More specifically, labor-intensive agricultural firms, faced with potentially large fines for violation of immigration and labor laws, increasingly modify the organization of their firms by shifting the management of routine seasonal labor jobs to independent farm labor contractors. The use of labor contracting is further intensified because of the effectiveness of labor contractors in the recruitment of illegal aliens.

CRITICAL ISSUES IN AGRICULTURAL LABOR MARKETS

Hired farm and family workers, including LABOR AS A PART OF AGRICULTURE owner-operators, are two distinct compoowner-operators, ar two distinct compoThe 1982 Census of Agriculture gives some nents of agricultural labor markets. Primary informaon o th c urrt rle givs some information on the current role of labor in emphasis in this paper is given to the hired mpnent but some observations on the agriculture. The Census data reveal that 38 component, but some observations on the famiomponeut ame alsoerenseon. the percent of farms in the South hired labor in family component are also presented. The related to agricultural labor 1982 as compared to 39 percent for the two major issues related to agricultural labor United States as a whole.Seven percent of markets at this juncture are immigration and st n as tilie contrct forthcoming 1985 a riculture bill The southern farms utilized contract labor as comthe forthcoming 1985 agriculture bill. The formerimpactsmostdirectlyonthe fort.hired pared to 6 percent for the United States former impacts most directly on the hired (United States Department of Commerce). component while the latter will exert the (United States Department of Cmmerc. co t w e te l r w e t Selected items are summarized in Table 1 for greatest influence on the family component. the South and the United States though the South and the United States.2 Although A third issue influencing each of the labor there is a disproportionate concentration of there is a disproportionate concentration of market components is international trade. labor expenditures in fruits, vegetables and Questions related to the structure of agrispecialty crops (27 percent) relative to the culture and labor markets are also briefly number of farms, the proportion is considaddressed. erably less than for the United States (37 Before considering the issues set forth, percent). An important difference between summary data on agricultural labor markets the South and the United States is the greater from the 1982 Census of Agriculture (United importance of field crops. These represent States Department of Commerce) and The 20 percent of farms in the South as compared Hired Farm Working Force of 1981 (United to 11 percent in the United States. The labor States Department of Agriculture, 1983) are expenditure proportions are roughly the same presented in the following section. An imin each case as the number of farms. Fruit, portant point to be made at the outset is the vegetable and specialty crops plus field crops remarkable transformation in agricultural larepresent 48 percent of the labor expendibor markets that has taken place over the ture in the South and 24 percent of farms. past 30 years, dramatically reducing the numTable 2 summarizes the leading states in ber of farm workers. This has nowhere been terms of labor expenditures. Three of the top more dramatic than in the South. It is now six states are in the South: Florida, Texas, apparent that the combined forces of techand North Carolina. The South with 40 pernology and nonfarm labor policy have been cent of the farms represents 31 percent of major stimuli for this transformation (Cototal labor expenditures in agriculture gan). An even more fundamental component (United States Department of Commerce). is the rising value of human time. And, it is California clearly overshadows all other states this rising value of time which will continue with 23 percent of labor expenditures. Elimto transform the labor market. inating California from the data, the South

THE MARKET FOR CITRUS HARVESTING LABOR

A number of aggregate agricultural labor market studies exist, typically concentrated on data at the national level. The Florida agricultural labor market, however, differs substantially from that of the rest of the nation, excepting California. In Florida, a large portion of the labor force is employed as harvesting labor. This is not only highly seasonal work, but also among the least demanding of skill. Also, over the period 1953-57 to 1967-69, the total number of farm workers declined in 49 states and by 43 percent nationally. During this time, Florida, however, experienced a 53 percent increase in hired labor usage, more than offsetting a 38 percent decline in family labor.