Robert D. Plotnick

A Politico-Economic Theory of Income Redistribution

This study integrates models of income redistribution developed by economists, who suggest that citizens voluntarily redistribute because of interdependent preferences and rely on the state for implementation owing to the public-good nature of redistribution, and political scientists, who focus on conditions that lead to demands that the state intervene to assist the poor and on the development of institutions that facilitate such demands. We propose a testable theory of redistribution and apply it to data from the American states.The empirical analysis addresses determinants of the Aid to Families with Dependent Children guarantee, adjusted for Medicaid and food stamps to which a family receiving the guarantee would be entitled. We posit significant links between the guarantee and both observable explanatory variables, such as per-capita income, and latent constructs, such as liberal party control. We specify observable indicators for the latent constructs and use the LISREL method to estimate parameters for the indicators and structural coefficients. The findings show that both political and economic variables significantly affect the level of the guarantee.

The Effects of Attitudes on Teenage Premarital Pregnancy and Its Resolution.

Drawing on problem behavior theory and complementary models of behavior, I examine the influence of attitudes and related personality variables on the probability of teenage premaritalpregnancy and, when a pregnancy occurs, whether it is resolved by abortion, having an out-of-wedlock birth, or marrying before the birth. A sample of non-Hispanic white adolescents is drawn from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth and analyzed using the nested logit method. The estimates show that self-esteem, locus of control, attitudes toward womens family roles, attitudes toward school, educational aspirations, and religiosity are associated with premarital pregnancy and its resolution in directions predicted by theory. The effects of self-esteem, attitudes toward school, attitudes toward womens family roles, and educational expectations are substantively important. Attitudes and related personality variables are important paths through which family background characteristics influence adolescent sexual and marriage behavior.

How Does Adolescent Fertility Affect the Human Capital and Wages of Young Women

We estimate the relationship between teenage childbearing, human capital investment, and wages in early adulthood, using a sample of women from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth and a large set of potential instruments for fertility-principally state and county-level indicators of the costs of fertility and fertility control. Adolescent fertility substantially reduces years of formal education and teenage work experience and, for white women only, early adult work experience. Through reductions in human capital, teenage childbearing has a significant effect on market wages at age 25. Our results suggest that public policies which reduce teenage childbearing are likely to have positive effects on the economic well-being of many young mothers.

Adolescent fertility and the educational attainment of young women.

Analyses based on a sample of 2,795 women interviewed annually from 1979 through 1991 in the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth show that early childbearing lowers the educational attainment of young women. After controls for an extensive set of personal and community characteristics are taken into account, having a child before age 20 significantly reduces schooling attained by almost three years among whites, blacks and Hispanics. Having a child before age 18 has a significant effect only among blacks, reducing years of schooling by 1.2 years.

Turnover in the AFDC Population: An Event History Analysis

The control group of families with female heads, from the Denver Income Maintenance Experiment, is utilized in this analysis of AFDC turnover. This study uses event history techniques, a methodology that is more appropriate for exploring welfare dynamics than the logit approach of earlier work. Increases in age and the wage have significant, negative effects on the rate of entering AFDC. A higher guarantee raises this rate significantly. Age and the guarantee have significant effects, with opposite signs, on the exit rate. Other variables are not systematically related to turnover. The estimates are applied to projected changes in lengths of time spent on and off AFDC and in AFDC caseloads due to changes in the explanatory variables.

Effects of State Welfare, Abortion and Family Planning Policies on Premarital Childbearing Among White Adolescents

This study develops an empirical model that measures the influence of state welfare, abortion and family planning policies on decisions concerning premarital pregnancy, abortion and single parenthood. Data are based on the fertility and marital experiences of white females from the three youngest cohorts of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, for 1979-1986. The results show that laws restricting contraceptive availability are associated with a higher risk of pregnancy. Restrictive policies on public funding of abortions reduce the likelihood of abortion, while greater availability of abortion services is associated with a higher likelihood that adolescents will obtain abortions. Finally, the estimates indicate that higher welfare benefits reduce the probability that pregnant adolescents will marry before bearing their children.

Effects of enhanced foster care on the long-term physical and mental health of foster care alumni

CONTEXT Child maltreatment is a significant risk factor for adult mental disorders and physical illnesses. Although the child welfare system routinely places severely abused and/or neglected children in foster care, no controlled studies exist to determine the effectiveness of this intervention in improving the long-term health of maltreated youth. OBJECTIVE To present results of the first quasi-experimental study, to our knowledge, to evaluate the effects of expanded foster care treatment on the mental and physical health of adult foster care alumni. DESIGN We used a quasi-experimental design to compare adult outcomes of alumni of a model private foster care program and 2 public programs. The latter alumni were eligible for but not selected by the private program because of limited openings. Propensity score weights based on intake records were adjusted for preplacement between-sample differences. Personal interviews administered 1 to 13 years after leaving foster care assessed the mental and physical health of alumni. SETTING/ PARTICIPANTS A representative sample of 479 adult foster care alumni who were placed in foster care as adolescents (14-18 years of age) between January 1, 1989, and September 30, 1998, in private (n = 111) or public (n = 368) foster care programs in Oregon and Washington. More than 80% of alumni were traced, and 92.2% of those traced were interviewed. INTERVENTION Caseworkers in the model program had higher levels of education and salaries, lower caseloads, and access to a wider range of ancillary services (eg, mental health counseling, tutoring, and summer camps) than caseworkers in the public programs. Youth in the model program were in foster care more than 2 years longer than those in the public programs. RESULTS Private program alumni had significantly fewer mental disorders (major depression, anxiety disorders, and substance use disorders), ulcers, and cardiometabolic disorders, but more respiratory disorders, than did public program alumni. CONCLUSION Public sector investment in higher-quality foster care services could substantially improve the long-term mental and physical health of foster care alumni.

The concept and measurement of horizontal inequity

Abstract This paper discusses the concept of horizontal equity and presents three formal principles as a basis for making comparisons of the extent of horizontal inequity produced by different redistributions. A condition analogous to the Lorenz criterion used for inequality comparisons is established under which the horizontal inequities of redistributions can be ranked without recourse to a cardinal measure of inequity. Ordinal comparisons are not possible in many cases. The three principles suggest three properties that ‘reasonable’ measures of horizontal inequity should possess. A class of measures which satisfies the properties is proposed. Most other existing measures are found not to satisfy them.

Better Child Support Enforcement Can It Reduce Teenage Premarital Childbearing

Stricter child support enforcement may reduce unwed childbearing by raising the costs of fatherhood. The authors investigate this hypothesis using a sample of young women from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, to which they add information on state child support enforcement. Models of the probability of a teenage premarital birth and of teenage premarital pregnancy and pregnancy resolution provide tentative evidence that during the early 1980s, teens living in states with higher rates of paternity establishment were less likely to become unwed mothers. This relationship is stronger for non-Hispanic Whites than for non-Hispanic Blacks. The findings suggest that policies that shift more costs of premarital child-bearing to men may reduce this behavior, at least among non-Hispanic Whites.

An Interest Group Model of Direct Income Redistribution

An interest group model of the determinants of policies which directly re distribute income to low income persons is developed and tested. The model assum es that altruistic taxpayers, nonaltruistic taxpayers, and needy beneficiaries f orm separate interest groups from which politicians seek support. Benefit levels depend on variables such as taxpayer income and the price of benefits but, unlike median voter models, the model also implies a role for interest group strengt h and competition between political parties. The author uses latent variable met hods and data on the Aid to Families with Dependent Children program to demonstr ate empirical support forthe model. Copyright 1986 by MIT Press.