Robert Detrano

Coronary calcium as a predictor of coronary events in four racial or ethnic groups.

BACKGROUND In white populations, computed tomographic measurements of coronary-artery calcium predict coronary heart disease independently of traditional coronary risk factors. However, it is not known whether coronary-artery calcium predicts coronary heart disease in other racial or ethnic groups. METHODS We collected data on risk factors and performed scanning for coronary calcium in a population-based sample of 6722 men and women, of whom 38.6% were white, 27.6% were black, 21.9% were Hispanic, and 11.9% were Chinese. The study subjects had no clinical cardiovascular disease at entry and were followed for a median of 3.8 years. RESULTS There were 162 coronary events, of which 89 were major events (myocardial infarction or death from coronary heart disease). In comparison with participants with no coronary calcium, the adjusted risk of a coronary event was increased by a factor of 7.73 among participants with coronary calcium scores between 101 and 300 and by a factor of 9.67 among participants with scores above 300 (P<0.001 for both comparisons). Among the four racial and ethnic groups, a doubling of the calcium score increased the risk of a major coronary event by 15 to 35% and the risk of any coronary event by 18 to 39%. The areas under the receiver-operating-characteristic curves for the prediction of both major coronary events and any coronary event were higher when the calcium score was added to the standard risk factors. CONCLUSIONS The coronary calcium score is a strong predictor of incident coronary heart disease and provides predictive information beyond that provided by standard risk factors in four major racial and ethnic groups in the United States. No major differences among racial and ethnic groups in the predictive value of calcium scores were detected.

Coronary artery calcification compared with carotid intima-media thickness in the prediction of cardiovascular disease incidence: the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA).

BACKGROUND Coronary artery calcium (CAC) and carotid intima-media thickness (IMT) are noninvasive measures of atherosclerosis that consensus panels have recommended as possible additions to risk factor assessment for predicting the probability of cardiovascular disease (CVD) occurrence. Our objective was to assess whether maximum carotid IMT or CAC (Agatston score) is the better predictor of incident CVD. METHODS A prospective cohort study of subjects aged 45 to 84 years in 4 ethnic groups, who were initially free of CVD (n = 6698) was performed, with standardized carotid IMT and CAC measures at baseline, in 6 field centers of the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA). The main outcome measure was the risk of incident CVD events (coronary heart disease, stroke, and fatal CVD) over a maximum of 5.3 years of follow-up. RESULTS There were 222 CVD events during follow-up. Coronary artery calcium was associated more strongly than carotid IMT with the risk of incident CVD. After adjustment for each other (CAC score and IMT) and age, race, and sex [corrected], the hazard ratio of CVD increased 2.1-fold (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.8-2.5) for each 1-standard deviation (SD) increment of log-transformed CAC score, vs 1.3-fold (95% CI, 1.1-1.4) for each 1-SD increment of the maximum IMT. For coronary heart disease, the hazard ratios per 1-SD increment increased 2.5-fold (95% CI, 2.1-3.1) for CAC score and 1.2-fold (95% CI, 1.0-1.4) for IMT. A receiver operating characteristic curve analysis also suggested that CAC score was a better predictor of incident CVD than was IMT, with areas under the curve of 0.81 vs 0.78, respectively. CONCLUSION Although whether and how to clinically use bioimaging tests of subclinical atherosclerosis remains a topic of debate, this study found that CAC score is a better predictor of subsequent CVD events than carotid IMT.

Ethnic Differences in Coronary Calcification The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA)

Background—There is substantial evidence that coronary calcification, a marker for the presence and quantity of coronary atherosclerosis, is higher in US whites than blacks; however, there have been no large population-based studies comparing coronary calcification among US ethnic groups. Methods and Results—Using computed tomography, we measured coronary calcification in 6814 white, black, Hispanic, and Chinese men and women aged 45 to 84 years with no clinical cardiovascular disease who participated in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA). The prevalence of coronary calcification (Agatston score >0) in these 4 ethnic groups was 70.4%, 52.1%, 56.5%, and 59.2%, respectively, in men (P<0.001) and 44.6%, 36.5%, 34.9%, and 41.9%, respectively, (P<0.001) in women. After adjustment for age, education, lipids, body mass index, smoking, diabetes, hypertension, treatment for hypercholesterolemia, gender, and scanning center, compared with whites, the relative risks for having coronary calcification were 0.78 (95% CI 0.74 to 0.82) in blacks, 0.85 (95% CI 0.79 to 0.91) in Hispanics, and 0.92 (95% CI 0.85 to 0.99) in Chinese. After similar adjustments, the amount of coronary calcification among those with an Agatston score >0 was greatest among whites, followed by Chinese (77% that of whites; 95% CI 62% to 96%), Hispanics (74%; 95% CI 61% to 90%), and blacks (69%; 95% CI 59% to 80%). Conclusions—We observed ethnic differences in the presence and quantity of coronary calcification that were not explained by coronary risk factors. Identification of the mechanism underlying these differences would further our understanding of the pathophysiology of coronary calcification and its clinical significance. Data on the predictive value of coronary calcium in different ethnic groups are needed.

Distribution of Coronary Artery Calcium by Race, Gender, and Age Results from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA)

Background— Coronary artery calcium (CAC) has been demonstrated to be associated with the risk of coronary heart disease. The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) provides a unique opportunity to examine the distribution of CAC on the basis of age, gender, and race/ethnicity in a cohort free of clinical cardiovascular disease and treated diabetes. Methods and Results— MESA is a prospective cohort study designed to investigate subclinical cardiovascular disease in a multiethnic cohort free of clinical cardiovascular disease. The percentiles of the CAC distribution were estimated with nonparametric techniques. Treated diabetics were excluded from analysis. There were 6110 included in the analysis, with 53% female and an average age of 62 years. Men had greater calcium levels than women, and calcium amount and prevalence were steadily higher with increasing age. There were significant differences in calcium by race, and these associations differed across age and gender. For women, whites had the highest percentiles and Hispanics generally had the lowest; in the oldest age group, however, Chinese women had the lowest values. Overall, Chinese and black women were intermediate, with their order dependent on age. For men, whites consistently had the highest percentiles, and Hispanics had the second highest. Blacks were lowest at the younger ages, and Chinese were lowest at the older ages. At the MESA public website (http://www.mesa-nhlbi.org), an interactive form allows one to enter an age, gender, race/ethnicity, and CAC score to obtain a corresponding estimated percentile. Conclusions— The information provided here can be used to examine whether a patient has a high CAC score relative to others with the same age, gender, and race/ethnicity who do not have clinical cardiovascular disease or treated diabetes.

Active Serum Vitamin D Levels Are Inversely Correlated With Coronary Calcification

BACKGROUND Arterial calcification is a common feature of atherosclerosis, occurring in >90% of angiographically significant lesions. Recent evidence from this and other studies suggests that development of atherosclerotic calcification is similar to osteogenesis; thus, we undertook the current investigation on the potential role of osteoregulatory factors in arterial calcification. METHODS AND RESULTS We studied two human populations (173 subjects) at high and moderate risk for coronary heart disease and assessed them for associations between vascular calcification and serum levels of the osteoregulatory molecules osteocalcin, parathyroid hormone, and 1alpha,25-dihydroxyvitamin D3 (1,25-vitamin D). Our results revealed that 1,25-vitamin D levels are inversely correlated with the extent of vascular calcification in both groups. No correlations were found between extent of calcification and levels of osteocalcin or parathyroid hormone. CONCLUSIONS These data suggest a possible role for vitamin D in the development of vascular calcification. Vitamin D is also known to be important in bone mineralization; thus, 1,25-vitamin D may be one factor to explain the long observed association between osteoporosis and vascular calcification.

Coronary Artery Calcium Evaluation by Electron Beam Computed Tomography and Its Relation to New Cardiovascular Events

Electron beam computed tomography is widely used to screen for coronary artery calcium (CAC). We evaluated the relation of CAC to future cardiovascular disease events in 926 asymptomatic persons (735 men and 191 women, mean age 54 years) who underwent a baseline electron beam computed tomographic scan. All subjects included in this report returned a follow-up questionnaire 2 to 4 years (mean 3.3) after scanning, inquiring about myocardial infarction, stroke, and revascularizations. Sixty percent of men and 40% of women had a positive scan at baseline. Twenty-eight cardiovascular events occurred and were confirmed by blinded medical record review. The presence of CAC (a total calcium score of >0) and increasing score quartiles were related to the occurrence of new myocardial infarction (p <0.05), revascularizations (p <0.001), and total cardiovascular events (p <0.001). Those with scores at or above the median (score of 5) had a relative risk of 4.5 (p <0.01) for new events. From Cox regression models, adjusted for age, gender, and coronary risk factors, the relative risks for those with scores of 81 to 270 and -271 (compared with 0) for cardiovascular events were 4.5 (p <0.05) and 8.8 (p <0.001), respectively. These data support previous reports showing CAC to be a modest predictor of future cardiovascular events.

Risk factors for the progression of coronary artery calcification in asymptomatic subjects: results from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA).

Background— The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) provides an opportunity to study the association of traditional cardiovascular risk factors with the incidence and progression of coronary artery calcium (CAC) in a large community-based cohort with no evidence of clinical cardiovascular disease. Methods and Results— Follow-up CAC measurements were available for 5756 participants with an average of 2.4 years between scans. The incidence of newly detectable CAC averaged 6.6% per year. Incidence increased steadily across age, ranging from <5% annually in those <50 years of age to >12% in those >80 years of age. Median annual change in CAC for those with existing calcification at baseline was 14 Agatston units for women and 21 Agatston units for men. Most traditional cardiovascular risk factors were associated with both the risk of developing new incident coronary calcium and increases in existing calcification. These included age, male gender, white race/ethnicity, hypertension, body mass index, diabetes mellitus, glucose, and family history of heart attack. Factors also existed that were related only to incident CAC risk, such as low- and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and creatinine. Diabetes mellitus had the strongest association with CAC progression for blacks and the weakest for Hispanics, with intermediate associations for whites and Chinese. Conclusions— This is the first large multiethnic study reporting on the incidence and progression of CAC. Standard coronary risk factors were generally related to both CAC incidence and progression. Whites had more incident CAC and CAC progression than the other 3 racial/ethnic groups. Except for diabetes mellitus, risk factor relationships were similar across racial/ethnic groups.

Coronary Calcium Does Not Accurately Predict Near-Term Future Coronary Events in High-Risk Adults

BACKGROUND Prognostic risk models have had limited success in predicting coronary events in subjects with multiple risk factors. We and others have proposed an alternative approach using radiographically detectable coronary calcium. We evaluated and compared the predictive value of these 2 approaches for determining coronary event risk in asymptomatic adults with multiple coronary risk factors. In addition, we assessed the predictive value of a risk model that included calcium score and cardiac risk-factor data. METHODS AND RESULTS We recruited 1196 asymptomatic high-coronary-risk subjects who then underwent risk-factor assessment and cardiac electron-beam CT (EBCT) scanning and were followed up for 41 months with a 99% success rate. We applied the Framingham model and our data-derived risk model to determine the 3-year likelihood of a coronary event. The mean age of our cohort was 66 years, and mean 3-year Framingham risk was 3.3+/-3.6%. Sixty-eight percent (818 subjects) had detectable coronary calcium. There were 17 coronary deaths (1.4%) and 29 nonfatal infarctions (2. 4%). The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve areas calculated from the Framingham model, our data-derived risk model, and the calcium score were 0.69+/-0.05, 0.68+/-0.05, and 0.64+/-0.05, respectively (P=NS). When calcium score was included as a variable in the data-derived model, the ROC area did not change significantly (0.68+/-0.05 to 0.71+/-0.04; P=NS). CONCLUSIONS Neither risk-factor assessment nor EBCT calcium is an accurate event predictor in high-risk asymptomatic adults. EBCT calcium score does not add significant incremental information to risk factors, and its use in clinical screening is not justified at this time.

Calcification in atherosclerosis: Bone biology and chronic inflammation at the arterial crossroads

Dystrophic or ectopic mineral deposition occurs in many pathologic conditions, including atherosclerosis. Calcium mineral deposits that frequently accompany atherosclerosis are readily quantifiable radiographically, serve as a surrogate marker for the disease, and predict a higher risk of myocardial infarction and death. Accelerating research interest has been propelled by a clear need to understand how plaque structure, composition, and stability lead to devastating cardiovascular events. In atherosclerotic plaque, accumulating evidence is consistent with the notion that calcification involves the participation of arterial osteoblasts and osteoclasts. Here we summarize current models of intimal arterial plaque calcification and highlight intriguing questions that require further investigation. Because atherosclerosis is a chronic vascular inflammation, we propose that arterial plaque calcification is best conceptualized as a convergence of bone biology with vascular inflammatory pathobiology.

Coronary Calcium Predicts Events Better With Absolute Calcium Scores Than Age-Sex-Race/Ethnicity Percentiles: MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis)

OBJECTIVES In this study, we aimed to establish whether age-sex-specific percentiles of coronary artery calcium (CAC) predict cardiovascular outcomes better than the actual (absolute) CAC score. BACKGROUND The presence and extent of CAC correlates with the overall magnitude of coronary atherosclerotic plaque burden and with the development of subsequent coronary events. METHODS MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) is a prospective cohort study of 6,814 asymptomatic participants followed for coronary heart disease (CHD) events including myocardial infarction, angina, resuscitated cardiac arrest, or CHD death. Time to incident CHD was modeled with Cox regression, and we compared models with percentiles based on age, sex, and/or race/ethnicity to categories commonly used (0, 1 to 100, 101 to 400, 400+ Agatston units). RESULTS There were 163 (2.4%) incident CHD events (median follow-up 3.75 years). Expressing CAC in terms of age- and sex-specific percentiles had significantly lower area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) than when using absolute scores (women: AUC 0.73 versus 0.76, p = 0.044; men: AUC 0.73 versus 0.77, p < 0.001). Akaikes information criterion indicated better model fit with the overall score. Both methods robustly predicted events (>90th percentile associated with a hazard ratio [HR] of 16.4, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 9.30 to 28.9, and score >400 associated with HR of 20.6, 95% CI: 11.8 to 36.0). Within groups based on age-, sex-, and race/ethnicity-specific percentiles there remains a clear trend of increasing risk across levels of the absolute CAC groups. In contrast, once absolute CAC category is fixed, there is no increasing trend across levels of age-, sex-, and race/ethnicity-specific categories. Patients with low absolute scores are low-risk, regardless of age-, sex-, and race/ethnicity-specific percentile rank. Persons with an absolute CAC score of >400 are high risk, regardless of percentile rank. CONCLUSIONS Using absolute CAC in standard groups performed better than age-, sex-, and race/ethnicity-specific percentiles in terms of model fit and discrimination. We recommend using cut points based on the absolute CAC amount, and the common CAC cut points of 100 and 400 seem to perform well.