Robert Dunn

Subsidies for Childbearing and Fertility Rates

Subsidies and tax incentives have become such an important policy tool in the United States and elsewhere that we often exaggerate their effectiveness. This author examines the effect of such policies on fertility rates. They may have some impact, he believes, but they by no means dominate family decisions about having children.Subsidies and tax incentives have become such an important policy tool in the United States and elsewhere that we often exaggerate their effectiveness. This author examines the effect of such policies on fertility rates. They may have some impact, he believes, but they by no means dominate family decisions about having children.

An Easy Monetary Policy in the European Union

the European Central Bank (ECB) began operations in January 1999, there was a widespread expectation that its monetary policy would be firm and that its currency, the euro, would be strong. That expectation is now in some doubt; interest rates have been cut faster than expected and the euro depreciated by about 10 percent relative to the dollar in its first three months of its existence. Although there are good arguments for monetary expansion in Europe under present circumstances, there are also reasons to believe that monetary policy in Europe may remain more expansionary than has been expected, at least in the short to medium term. This tendency toward expansion grows out of a problem that is inherent in the operation of the European Monetary Union (EMU): How is the European Central Bank to set a single monetary policy for eleven separate national economies?

The Age Bias in Academic Publishing

Academic publishing in economics is dominated by younger professors. Why is that so? As more tenured professors stay in their positions well beyond normal retirement age, will less be published in general? The author presents the evidence.Academic publishing in economics is dominated by younger professors. Why is that so? As more tenured professors stay in their positions well beyond normal retirement age, will less be published in general? The author presents the evidence.

Has the U.S. economy really been globalized

The globalized U.S. economy is largely a myth. U.S. society and culture have become more connected to the world, but the economy has remained largely independent. Here are four indicators to prove it.

EMU Convergence: Reason for Encouragement

One long-standing problem with currency and trading unions is the varying timing of their business cycles. These variations make adopting uniform fiscal and monetary policies difficult, with some nations bearing more of the pain than others. But over time, these business cycles should converge. Do they? This economist, a member of our board, finds that in the European Union, they have indeed converged.

Does the Big Mac Predict Exchange Rates

Traders, political analysts, and even tourists are always looking for ways to forecast changes in the value of currencies. But this economist finds that no models predict well, including the Economists Big Mac Index.

EMU without Britain: reasons for scepticism

This paper applies the theory of optimum currency areas to the question of which countries could be expected to be successful members of EMU if the monetary union does not include Britain, and is therefore led by the Bundesbank. Correlation matrices are prepared for potential members of EMU for recent years to see which countries would have tended to agree on a monetary policy and which would frequently disagree. The statistics strongly suggest that the Bank of England would be a far more successful leader of EMU than would the Bundesbank. Only Austria and the Netherlands have had macroeconomic cycles which closely follow those of Germany. Far more countries have had cycles which parallel those of Britain. With EMU being led by the Bundesbank, because Britain has not joined, the prospects for monetary union are quite poor.

Why Won't the European Central Bank Ease?

If Alan Greenspan were running the central bank in Europe, perhaps the economy there would he doing better. But policy-making is subject to more conflicts in a federation of nations than in a unified one. This economist explains why policy has been too tight in the past. But, he adds, policy is tighter than even he expects. Is the young central bank too concerned with maintaining an anti-inflation image?If Alan Greenspan were running the central bank in Europe, perhaps the economy there would be doing better. But policy-making is subject to more conflicts in a federation of nations than in a unified one. This economist explains why policy has been too tight in the past. But, he adds, policy is tighter than even he expects. Is the young central bank too concerned with maintaining an anti-inflation image?

The Routes to Crisis Contagion

This economist argues that financial crises can easily spread through the international capital markets. Thus, arguments that we do not need a lender of last resort, such as the International Monetary Fund, are misdirected. He also argues for better financial information, reformed bankruptcy laws, and more moderate use of short-term debt.This economist argues that financial crises can easily spread through the international capital markets. Thus, arguments that we do not need a lender of last resort, such as the International Monetary Fund, are misdirected. He also argues for better financial information, reformed bankruptcy laws, and more moderate use of short-term debt.