Robert E. Chapman

Interaction effects of information technologies and best practices on construction project performance

AbstractBuilding from considerable empirical research in the general business literature, this paper quantitatively explores the view that the benefits of information technologies manifest themselves through improvement in work processes. In turn, better work processes lead to increased project performance. Using an overall sample of 133 projects (missing data make specific correlation sample sizes smaller) from the Construction Industry Institute Benchmarking and Metrics database, this paper analyzes correlations between technology use and integration, best practices, and project performance measured with cost, schedule, and rework metrics. Data are also used to assess the complementary interaction between technology use, work processes as measured by best practices, and performance. The findings show that there are limited significant beneficial correlations between information technology use and performance, slightly more significant beneficial correlations between best practice use and performance, an...

Evaluating the risks of solid waste management programs: A suggested approach

Abstract The Resource Recovery Planning Model (RRPLAN) is used to illustrate an approach for evaluating the risks associated with alternative solid waste management programs. The paper first discusses how RRPLAN uses a detailed cost accounting framework to weigh the consequences of decisions affecting siting, routing, marketing and financing. A case study of the tri-county area surrounding Jackson, Mississippi, where two waste-to-energy facilities are compared to an all-landfill option, is then introduced. The case study shows how the results of a sensitivity analysis can be used to develop a cost estimating relationship between the discounted cost per Mg (ton) of processing at a waste-to-energy facility and three explanatory variables: (1) the capital cost of the facility; (2) the volume of waste processed; and (3) revenues from the sale of recoverable materials and any associated tipping fees. A Monte Carlo experiment is then performed to show how variations about the expected values for the three explanatory variables affect the risk of the program. The probability that the discounted cost per Mg of the waste-to-energy facility exceeds that of the all-landfill option is used as a risk assessment mechanism.

Code compliance at lower costs: A mathematical programming approach

The identification of cost-effective levels of fire safety in health care facilities is a major concern to hospital administrators, fire safety engineers and public policy makers.

Analyzing the Economic Impacts of a Military Mobilization

A military mobilization is a complex series of events, which if modeled adequately, can specify how a national economy makes the transition from a peace-time to a war-time footing. Problems in modeling such situations have highlighted the importance of evaluating large-scale, policy-oriented models prior to their use by decision makers. The current study outlines a generic procedure for conducting such an evaluation. Specifically, macro- economic modeling and a structured sensitivity analysis can be combined to measure and evaluate the economic impacts of a military mobilization.

Assessing the costs of fire protection in health care facilities

The identification of cost-effective levels of fire safety in health care facilities is a major concern to hospital administrators, fire safety engineers, and public policy-makers. Rising construction and operating costs coupled with more stringent building codes and continuing advances in medical and building technology have complicated the issue, forcing health care facility administrators to assess carefully the alternative means through which they can design, construct, or update their facilities. This paper illustrates how the use of a performance-based approach to fire safety can dramatically reduce the costs of code compliance without reducing the safety and well-being of those housed in health care facilities.

Development and Interpretation of the Security Rating Index

AbstractThis paper documents the second phase of a three-phase research effort to develop and deploy best practices for project security on industrial construction projects. Specifically, it details the development and interpretation and initial validation of the security rating index, which provides a means of quantitatively assessing the level of implementation of security practices for a project. The security rating index must be used in the context of threat and consequence levels. The threat level quantifies the intention and capability of an adversary to undertake detrimental actions, whereas the consequence level quantifies potential impacts of a security breach over the facility life cycle. This approach allows comparisons to be made between projects with similar security considerations. The security rating index is the first tool to integrate and quantify risk, consequence, and security best practice implementation. It can also be used as a checklist to integrate the appropriate security measures...

An Economics-Based Intelligence (EI) Tool for Pressure Vessel and Piping (PVP) Failure Consequence Estimation

This paper is built around ASTM E 2506, Standard Guide for Developing a Cost-Effective Risk Mitigation Plan for New and Existing Constructed Facilities. E 2506 establishes a three-step protocol—perform risk assessment, specify combinations of risk mitigation strategies for evaluation, and perform economic evaluation—to insure that the decision maker is provided the requisite information to choose the most cost effective combination of risk mitigation strategies. Because decisions associated with low-probability, high-consequence events involve uncertainty both in terms of appropriate evaluation procedures and event-related measures of likelihood and consequence, NIST developed a Risk Mitigation Toolkit. This paper uses (a) a data center undergoing renovation for improved security, and (b) a PVP-related failure event to illustrate how to perform the E 2506 three-step protocol with particular emphasis on the third step—perform economic evaluation. The third step is built around the Cost-Effectiveness Tool for Capital Asset Protection (CET), which was developed by NIST. Version 4.0 of CET is used to analyze the security- or failure-related event with a focus on consequence estimation and consequence assessment via Monte Carlo techniques. CET 4.0 includes detailed analysis and reporting features designed to identify key cost drivers, measure their impacts, and deliver estimated consequence parameters with uncertainty bounds. Significance of this economics-based intelligence (EI) tool is presented and discussed for security- or failure-consequence estimation to risk assessment of failure of critical structures or components.

A Risk-Uncertainty Formula Accounting for Uncertainties of Failure Probability and Consequence in a Nuclear Powerplant

This paper is a continuation of a recent ASME Conference paper entitled “Design of a Python-Based Plug-in for Benchmarking Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics Computer Codes with Failure Event Data” (PVP2009-77974). In that paper, which was co-authored by Fong, deWit, Marcal, Filliben, Heckert, and Gosselin, we designed a probability-uncertainty plug-in to automate the estimation of leakage probability with uncertainty bounds due to variability in a large number of factors. The estimation algorithm was based on a two-level full or fractional factorial design of experiments such that the total number of simulations will be small as compared to a Monte-Carlo method. This feature is attractive if the simulations were based on finite element analysis with a large number of nodes and elements. In this paper, we go one step further to derive a risk-uncertainty formula by computing separately the probability-uncertainty and the consequence-uncertainty of a given failure event, and then using the classical theory of error propagation to compute the risk-uncertainty within the domain of validity of that theory. The estimation of the consequence-uncertainty is accomplished by using a public-domain software package entitled “Cost-Effectiveness Tool for Capital Asset Protection, version 4.0, 2008” (http://www.bfrl.nist.gov/oae/ or NIST Report NISTIR-7524 ), and is more fully described in a companion paper entitled “An Economics-based Intelligence (EI) Tool for Pressure Vessels & Piping (PVP) Failure Consequence Estimation,” (PVP2010-25226, Session MF-23.4 of this conference). A numerical example of an application of the risk-uncertainty formula using a 16-year historical database of probability and consequence of main steam and hot reheat piping systems is presented. Implication of this risk-uncertainty estimation tool to the design of a risk-informed in-service inspection program is discussed.Copyright

An Economic Assessment of Selected Integration and Automation Technologies

This paper presents a critical analysis of the economic impacts of past, ongoing, and planned research of BFRL’s construction systems integration and automation technologies (CONSIAT) program. The CONSIAT program is an interdisciplinary research effort within BFRL to develop key enabling technologies, standard communication protocols, and advanced measurement technologies needed to facilitate the delivery of fully-integrated and automated project process (FIAPP) products and services to the construction industry. BFRL is participating in a public-private partnership focused on early commercialization of FIAPP products and services. The results of this analysis demonstrate that the use of FIAPP products and services will generate substantial cost savings to the capital facilities industry. The present value of savings nationwide expected from the use of FIAPP products and services in capital facilities over the next 15 years exceeds

Impacts of Design/Information Technology on Project Outcomes

3.5 billion. The present value of cost savings due to the public-private partnership’s efforts focused on early commercialization of FIAPP products and services is expected to exceed