Robert E. Crew

Assessing the value of police pursuit

This article develops a method for assessing the costs and benefits of police pursuit. Using pursuit data from the State of Minnesota and cost and benefit data from both the insurance industry and scholarly efforts to estimate the costs of crime, we create “pursuit tradeoff ratios” for each of five types of pursuits. Using logistic regression, we analyze several factors said to affect pursuit outcomes. We show that the benefits of pursuit outweigh their costs across all five types of chases, but that some types of chases are less beneficial than others.

Political Events in a Model of Gubernatorial Approval

Research on the public approval of American governors has focused almost exclusively on the impact of economic conditions on fluctuations in such approval. This article adds events variables to a model of gubernatorial public approval including the more commonly used economic variables, and tests this model in a time-series analysis in three states. The results suggest that the effect of political events is minimal and mixed. Furthermore, the analysis does not clearly support any general theory of gubernatorial approval. Instead, the factors that influence public support for governors seem to vary across time and state.

Probabilities and odds in hot pursuit: A benefit-cost analysis

Abstract This article provides a cost-benefit assessment of pursuits initiated for five separate reasons. It calculates the probabilities and odds that each pursuit type will result in an arrest and that damages, injuries, and deaths will occur during the pursuit. It develops a “pursuit trade-off ratio” for use in specifying the cost effectiveness of each type of pursuit. The usefulness of the analysis for pursuit policy-making is discussed.

Finding employment and staying employed after leaving welfare

Abstract This paper examines the impact of transportation, childcare, and illness on the ability of former welfare recipients to secure employment and to maintain employment once more “distal” or structural factors are controlled. The impact of these variables on gaining and keeping employment is evaluated in a series of probit regression models. The analysis suggests that the current labor market has transformed securing and maintaining employment into two separate events and that most of the factors traditionally used to predict the ability of welfare recipients to gain employment are now more important to maintaining employment. In particular, the absence of an automobile reduces the probability of keeping a job by 24 points.

Assessing the effects of substance abuse among applicants for TANF benefits: the outcome of a demonstration project in Florida.

Abstract This paper examines an attempt by the State of Florida to devise a mechanism for determining the level of drug use among TANF recipients and to determine the extent to which such use affects employment, earnings and use of government services by TANF beneficiaries. Data from tests administered by substance abuse testing providers were combined with information from Medicaid, Food Stamp, cash assistance and Unemployment Insurance files to examine differences between the two groups. The findings suggest that the procedures employed by the State of Florida did not produce reliable estimates of the level of drug use among TANF beneficiaries. The data did show very small differences in employment, earnings, and use of government services between individuals who tested positively and those who tested negatively for substance abuse. In addition, evidence is presented that suggests that there is very little difference in employment, earnings and use of government services between users of different kinds of drugs.

Evaluating The Efficiency Of Private Sector Organizations In Helping Welfare Beneficiaries Find Employment

This research examines the relative success of private, public, and nonprofit organizations in finding employment for Temporary Assistance for Needy Families beneficiaries in Florida. A variety of data are used to measure success in this endeavor. Type of organization used to assist in finding employment was entered into a regression model that controlled for demographic characteristics of the welfare population. Ordinary least squares regression, analysis of variance, difference of means, and descriptive statistics were employed to test the hypothesis that private service providers were more efficient and effective than were public or nonprofit organizations in finding employment for welfare beneficiaries. The analysis did not support the hypothesis.

The Political Scientist as Local Campaign Consultant

During my 45 years as an academic, I have followed the admonition sometimes attributed to the legendary Jedi warrior Obi-Wan Kenobe that political scientists should “use [their] power for good and not for evil.” In this spirit, I have devoted substantial portions of my career to public service by providing strategic advice and campaign management to candidates for small state and local elective offices—state legislature, county commission, city clerk or treasurer, school board, and the like—and supporters of citizen ballot initiatives. These campaigns generally cannot afford the professional campaign assistance that is now virtually a necessity for winning elections at all levels of government.

Substance Abuse as a Barrier to Employment of Welfare Recipients

Abstract This article evaluates the impact of substance abuse on the employability, earnings, and use of governmental services of individuals receiving welfare cash assistance. Ordered probit and ordinary least squares regression techniques were used to test the hypothesis that use of controlled substances affects the ability of welfare beneficiaries to find employment, to earn wages, to avoid economic hardship, and to take advantage of governmental social service programs. Results show that substance abuse is not the barrier to work for individuals receiving cash assistance that it has been thought to be, nor does such use predict economic hardship, or affect the propensity of welfare beneficiaries to take advantage of government programs.