Robert E. T. Ward

Good and bad practice in the communication of uncertainties associated with the relationship between climate change and weather-related natural disasters

Abstract There is evidence that climate change is affecting the frequency, intensity and geographical distribution of weather-related natural disasters. However, the exact details of this relationship are subject to varying degrees of uncertainty. Scientists, policy-makers and others have recognized how this connection could influence public support for decisions and policies around climate change, such as measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This has led to a number of cases in which stakeholders in the public policy debate about climate change have overstated or understated uncertainties, relative to the scientific assessments of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Although such distortions in the expression of uncertainties are motivated by a desire to justify particular policy positions, they could instead undermine the credibility of, and trust in, information sources and diminish public support.

Comment: ‘knock knock: where is the evidence for dangerous human-caused global warming?’ by Robert M. Carter

Carter (2008) notes that for climate change “sound science [sic] understanding is an essential prerequisite to any meaningful economic analysis”. Unfortunately his paper contains serious and systematic errors and misrepresentations about the causes and potential consequences of climate change, the overall effect of which is to convey an inaccurate and misleading impression of the scientific evidence. Indeed, the overall tone of Carter (2008) is one of a polemic rather than an objective analysis of the facts. An itemisation of all the inaccuracies in Carter (2008) would require a great deal of space, so this paper identifies and corrects some of the most important errors.

How national science academies in developed countries can assist development in sub-Saharan Africa

There is good evidence that training skilled scientists and carrying out research make a positive contribution to economic growth and development of nations in sub-Saharan Africa. National science academies of developed nations are supporting development primarily by promoting the growth of science academies in sub-Saharan nations, and also by analysing and advising on the contribution of science to development, and establishing exchanges and collaborations with African scientists. In future, the activities of national science academies in developed countries may need to be more explicitly coordinated, between individual initiatives and with the plans of African nations and international organisations.

Policy Brief—Recommendations for Improving the Treatment of Risk and Uncertainty in Economic Estimates of Climate Impacts in the Sixth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report

Large discrepancies persist between projections of the physical impacts of climate change and economic damage estimates. These discrepancies increase with increasing global average temperature projections. Based on this observation, we recommend that in its Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) improve its approach to the management of the uncertainties inherent in climate policy decisions. In particular, we suggest that the IPCC (1) strengthen its focus on applications of decision making under risk, uncertainty, and outright ambiguity and (2) estimate how the uncertainty itself affects its economic and financial cost estimates of climate damage and, ultimately, the optimal price for each ton of carbon dioxide released. Our hope is that by adopting these recommendations, AR6 will be able to resolve some of the documented inconsistencies in estimates of the physical and economic impacts of climate change and more effectively fulfill the IPCC’s mission to provide policymakers with a robust and rigorous approach for assessing the potential future risks of climate change.

Comment on ‘impact of current climate proposals’

The results cited by Lomborg (2015) are almost entirely due to the assumptions he makes about the post-2030 annual emissions from the United States, European Union and China. In each of these cases, annual emissions are assumed not to reduce any further, and in most cases, to rise.