Robert Fein

Threat assessment: defining an approach for evaluating risk of targeted violence.

Although the field of risk assessment has made tremendous advances in the past 20 years, assessments of targeted violence continue to pose a significant challenge to law enforcement, mental health, and other professionals. These specific and critical assessments require an innovative approach. The threat assessment model, developed and refined by the U.S. Secret Service, provides a useful framework for thinking about assessments of potential for targeted violence. In this paper, we attempt to define this approach as it has been developed by the Secret Service, and apply it within the existing professional/scientific literature on risk assessment. We begin with a brief review of existing models and approaches in risk assessment, and identification of some gaps in our existing knowledge as it relates to assessments of targeted violence. We then proceed with an outline of the threat assessment approach, including a review of principles and guiding operational questions, and discussion of its use in assessment of targeted violence.

Assassination in the United States: An Operational Study of Recent Assassins, Attackers, and Near-Lethal Approachers

This study is the first operational exploration of the thinking and behavior of all 83 persons known to have attacked, or approached to attack, a prominent public official or public figure in the United States since 1949. In addition to data about each attack or near-attack and each subjects demographic and background characteristics, information was gathered about each subjects ideas and actions in the days and weeks before their attacks or near-lethal approaches. Questions were examined about each subjects movement from the idea of attack to actual attack, motives, selection of targets, planning, communication of threat and intent, symptoms of mental illness, and significant life experiences. In every case, the attack or near-attack was the end result of an understandable, and often discernible, process of thinking and action. Implications for protectors, investigators, and researchers are discussed.

The Role of Operational Research in Counterterrorism

In the post 11 September 2001 security environment, federal, state, and local law enforcement personnel in the United States are asked regularly to maintain a state of ‘‘heightened alert.’’ Intelligence professionals have also been mobilized to increase data collection and information-sharing efforts to prevent terrorist attacks against U.S. interests. But understanding the threat of the ‘‘new terrorism’’ and its implications for investigation and

The Psychology of Foreign Fighters

ABSTRACT The recent influx of foreign fighters into Syria, particularly those aligning with the Islamic State, has brought renewed attention to the security threat posed by people who cross borders to participate in armed conflict. Although foreign fighters have rarely, if ever, constituted the majority of combatants in a war or insurgency, understanding their role is critical for conflict analysis and prevention. This review focuses on behavioral aspects of the foreign fighter phenomenon. Although other books and articles have focused wholly, or in part, on historical dimensions, the behavioral and social science literature on foreign fighters is much more limited. This review first explores the definitions of “foreign fighter” terminology, then analyzes what is known about their motivations and their pathways toward engaging in armed conflict on foreign soil. It examines recruitment strategies and the role of “radicalization” in feeding the transnational insurgent supply, and finally describes more specifically, the nature of foreign fighter involvement in more recent armed conflicts (e.g., Syria, Chechnya, Iraq, and Afghanistan), and speculates about the prospects for their future involvement.

Preventing Targeted Violence Against Judicial Officials and Courts

Attacks against judicial officials and the courts are rare events but carry the potential for tremendous impact on the American judiciary. In this article, the authors describe a systematic approach to prevent targeted violence against judges and their courts. They begin with a brief overview of findings from operational research on assassinations and attacks against public officials, including judges. They then review the threat assessment approach, a fact-based risk assessment method developed to prevent assassinations, and examine its utility for evaluating risk of targeted violence toward judges and courts. The authors conclude with a discussion of research recommendations to better understand and prevent targeted violence in the judiciary.