Robert G. Abbott

Simulating the Hallmarks of Cancer

Cancer can be viewed as the loss of cooperative cell behaviors that normally facilitate multicellularity, including the formation of tissues and organs. Hanahan and Weinberg describe the phenotypic differences between healthy and cancerous cells in an article titled The Hallmarks of Cancer (Cell, 100, 5770, 2000). Here the authors propose six phenotypic changes at the cellular level as the essential hallmarks of cancer. They investigate the dynamics and interactions of these hallmarks in a model known as CancerSim. They describe how CancerSim implements the hallmarks in an agent-based simulation which can help test the hypotheses put forth by Hanahan and Weinberg. Experiments with CancerSim are described that study the interactions of cell phenotype alterations, and in particular, the likely sequences of precancerous mutations, known as pathways. The experiments show that sequencing is an important factor in tumorigenesis, as some mutations have preconditionsthey are selectively advantageous only in combination with other mutations. CancerSim enables a modeler to study the dynamics of a developing tumor and simulate how progression can be altered by tuning model parameters.

Multiple target tracking with lazy background subtraction and connected components analysis

Background subtraction, binary morphology, and connected components analysis are the first processing steps in many vision-based tracking applications. Although background subtraction has been the subject of much research, it is typically treated as a stand-alone process, dissociated from the subsequent phases of object recognition and tracking. This paper presents a method for decreasing computational cost in visual tracking systems by using track state estimates to direct and constrain image segmentation via background subtraction and connected components analysis. We also present a multiple target tracking application that uses the technique to achieve a large reduction in computation costs.

Individual Differences in Multitasking Ability and Adaptability

Objective: The aim of this study was to identify the cognitive factors that predictability and adaptability during multitasking with a flight simulator. Background: Multitasking has become increasingly prevalent as most professions require individuals to perform multiple tasks simultaneously. Considerable research has been undertaken to identify the characteristics of people (i.e., individual differences) that predict multitasking ability. Although working memory is a reliable predictor of general multitasking ability (i.e., performance in normal conditions), there is the question of whether different cognitive faculties are needed to rapidly respond to changing task demands (adaptability). Method: Participants first completed a battery of cognitive individual differences tests followed by multitasking sessions with a flight simulator. After a baseline condition, difficulty of the flight simulator was incrementally increased via four experimental manipulations, and performance metrics were collected to assess multitasking ability and adaptability. Results: Scholastic aptitude and working memory predicted general multitasking ability (i.e., performance at baseline difficulty), but spatial manipulation (in conjunction with working memory) was a major predictor of adaptability (performance in difficult conditions after accounting for baseline performance). Conclusion: Multitasking ability and adaptability may be overlapping but separate constructs that draw on overlapping (but not identical) sets of cognitive abilities. Application: The results of this study are applicable to practitioners and researchers in human factors to assess multitasking performance in real-world contexts and with realistic task constraints. We also present a framework for conceptualizing multitasking adaptability on the basis of five adaptability profiles derived from performance on tasks with consistent versus increased difficulty.

Automated expert modeling for automated student evaluation

This paper presents automated expert modeling for automated student evaluation, or AEMASE (pronounced “amaze”). This technique grades students by comparing their actions to a model of expert behavior. The expert model is constructed with machine learning techniques, avoiding the costly and time-consuming process of manual knowledge elicitation and expert system implementation. A brief summary of after action review (AAR) and intelligent tutoring systems (ITS) provides background for a prototype AAR application with a learning expert model. A validation experiment confirms that the prototype accurately grades student behavior on a tactical aircraft maneuver application. Finally, several topics for further research are proposed.

Experimental Assessment of Accuracy of Automated Knowledge Capture

The U.S. armed services are widely adopting simulation-based training, largely to reduce costs associated with live training. However simulation-based training still requires a high instructor-to-student ratio which is expensive. Intelligent tutoring systems target this need, but they are often associated with high costs for knowledge engineering and implementation. To reduce these costs, we are investigating the use of machine learning to produce models of expert behavior for automated student assessment. A key concern about the expert modeling approach is whether it can provide accurate assessments on complex tasks of real-world interest. This study evaluates of the accuracy of model-based assessments on a complex task. We trained employees at Sandia National Laboratories on a Navy simulator and then compared their simulation performance to the performance of experts using both automated and manual assessment. Results show that automated assessments were comparable to the manual assessments on three metrics.

Predicting Individual Action Switching in Covert and Continuous Interactive Tasks Using the Fluid Events Model

The Fluid Events Model is aimed at predicting changes in the actions people take on a moment-by-moment basis. In contrast with other research on action selection, this work does not investigate why some course of action was selected, but rather the likelihood of discontinuing the current course of action and selecting another in the near future. This is done using both task-based and experience-based factors. Prior work evaluated this model in the context of trial-by-trial, independent, interactive events, such as choosing how to copy a figure of a line drawing. In this paper, we extend this model to more covert event experiences, such as reading narratives, as well as to continuous interactive events, such as playing a video game. To this end, the model was applied to existing data sets of reading time and event segmentation for written and picture stories. It was also applied to existing data sets of performance in a strategy board game, an aerial combat game, and a first person shooter game in which a participant’s current state was dependent on prior events. The results revealed that the model predicted behavior changes well, taking into account both the theoretically defined structure of the described events, as well as a person’s prior experience. Thus, theories of event cognition can benefit from efforts that take into account not only how events in the world are structured, but also how people experience those events.

Using After-Action Review Based on Automated Performance Assessment to Enhance Training Effectiveness

Training simulators have become increasingly popular tools for instructing humans on performance in complex environments. However, the question of how to provide individualized and scenario-specific assessment and feedback to students remains largely an open question. In this work, we follow-up on previous evaluations of the Automated Expert Modeling and Automated Student Evaluation (AEMASE) system, which automatically assesses student performance based on observed examples of good and bad performance in a given domain. The current study provides a rigorous empirical evaluation of the enhanced training effectiveness achievable with this technology. In particular, we found that students given feedback via the AEMASE-based debrief tool performed significantly better than students given only instructor feedback on two out of three domain-specific performance metrics.

Simulation of Workflow and Threat Characteristics for Cyber Security Incident Response Teams

Within large organizations, the defense of cyber assets generally involves the use of various mechanisms, such as intrusion detection systems, to alert cyber security personnel to suspicious network activity. Resulting alerts are reviewed by the organization’s cyber security personnel to investigate and assess the threat and initiate appropriate actions to defend the organization’s network assets. While automated software routines are essential to cope with the massive volumes of data transmitted across data networks, the ultimate success of an organization’s efforts to resist adversarial attacks upon their cyber assets relies on the effectiveness of individuals and teams. This paper reports research to understand the factors that impact the effectiveness of Cyber Security Incidence Response Teams (CSIRTs). Specifically, a simulation is described that captures the workflow within a CSIRT. The simulation is then demonstrated in a study comparing the differential response time to threats that vary with respect to key characteristics (attack trajectory, targeted asset and perpetrator). It is shown that the results of the simulation correlate with data from the actual incident response times of a professional CSIRT.

Using Psychologically Plausible Operator Cognitive Models to Enhance Operator Performance

Research by Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) is currently being conducted that seeks to embody human-like cognitive capacities in machines by transforming the human-machine interaction so that it more closely resembles a human-to-human interaction. This document reports on the initial phase of research and development by SNL in creating a capability whereby a machine-based cognitive model provides a real-time awareness of the cognitive state of an operator. In the capability referred to as “Discrepancy Detection,” the machine uses an operators cognitive model to monitor its own state and when there is evidence of a discrepancy between the actual state of the machine and the operators perceptions concerning the state of the machine, a discrepancy may be signaled. The current project offers successful evidence that a machine may accurately infer an operators interpretation of situations based on an individualized cognitive model of the operator.

The fluid events model: Predicting continuous task action change:

The fluid events model is a behavioural model aimed at predicting the likelihood that people will change their actions in ongoing, interactive events. From this view, not only are people responding to aspects of the environment, but they are also basing responses on prior experiences. The fluid events model is an attempt to predict the likelihood that people will shift the type of actions taken within an event on a trial-by-trial basis, taking into account both event structure and experience-based factors. The event-structure factors are: (a) changes in event structure, (b) suitability of the current action to the event, and (c) time on task. The experience-based factors are: (a) whether a person has recently shifted actions, (b) how often a person has shifted actions, (c) whether there has been a dip in performance, and (d) a persons propensity to switch actions within the current task. The model was assessed using data from a series of tasks in which a person was producing responses to events. These were two stimulus-driven figure-drawing studies, a conceptually driven decision-making study, and a probability matching study using a standard laboratory task. This analysis predicted trial-by-trial action switching in a person-independent manner with an average accuracy of 70%, which reflects a 34% improvement above chance. In addition, correlations between overall switch rates and actual switch rates were remarkably high (mean r = .98). The experience-based factors played a more major role than the event-structure factors, but this might be attributable to the nature of the tasks.