Robert G. King

Finance and Growth: Schumpeter Might Be Right

Joseph Schumpeter argued in 1911 that the services provided by financial intermediaries - mobilizing savings, evaluating projects, managing risk, monitoring managers, and facilitating transactions -stimulate technological innovation and economic development. The authors present evidence that supports this view. Examining a cross-section of about 80 countries for the period 1960-89, they find that various measures of financial development are strongly associated with both current and later rates of economic growth. Each measure has shortcomings but all tell the same story: finance matters. They present three main findings, which are robust to many specification tests: The average level of financial development for 1960-89 is very strongly associated with growth for the period. Financial development precedes growth. For example, financial depth in 1960 (the ratio of broad money to GDP) is positively and significantly related to real per capita GDP growth over the next 30 years even after controlling for a variety of country-specific characteristics and policy indicators. Financial development is positively associated with both investment rate and the efficiency with which economies use capital. Much work remains to be done, but the data are consistent with Schumpeters view that the services provided by financial intermediaries stimulate long-run growth.

Finance, entrepreneurship and growth☆

Abstract How do financial systems affect economic growth? We construct an endogenous growth model in which financial systems evaluate prospective entrepreneurs, mobilize savings to finance the most promising productivity-enhancing activities, diversify the risks associated with these innovative activities and reveal the expected profits from engaging in innovation rather than the production of existing goods using existing methods. Better financial systems improve the probability of successful innovation and thereby accelerate economic growth. Similarly, financial sector distortions reduce the rate of economic growth by reducing the rate of innovation. A broad battery of evidence suggests that financial systems are important for productivity growth and economic development.

Production, growth and business cycles: I. The basic neoclassical model

This paper presents the neoclassical model of capital accumulation augmented by choice of labor supply as the basic framework of modern real business cycle analysis. Preferences and production possibilities are restricted so that the economy displays steady state growth. Then we explore the implications of the basic model for perfect foresight capital accumulation and for economic fluctuations initiated by impulses to technology. We argue that the neoclassical approach holds considerable promise for enhancing our understanding of fluctuations. Nevertheless, the basic model does have some important shortcomings. In particular, substantial persistence in technology shocks is required if the model economy is to exhibit periods of economic activity that persistently deviate from a deterministic trend.

LOW FREQUENCY FILTERING AND REAL BUSINESS CYCLES

This paper discusses in detail the Hodrick-Prescott (1980) filter from time and frequency domain perspectives, motivating it as a generalization of the exponential smoothing filter. We show that the HP filter — when applied to large samples — contains a centered fourth difference and hence renders stationary time series that are ‘difference-stationary’ and, indeed, integrated of higher order. However, our application of the HP filter to U.S. time series and to the simulated outcomes of real business cycle models leads us to question its widespread use as a unique method of trend elimination. We provide examples of how HP filtering dramatically alters measures of persistence, variability, and comovement.

State-Dependent Pricing and the General Equilibrium Dynamics of Money and Output

Economists have long suggested that nominal product prices are changed infrequently because of fixed costs. In such a setting, optimal price adjustment should depend on the state of the economy. Yet, while widely discussed, statedependent pricing has proved difficult to incorporate into macroeconomic models. This paper develops a new, tractable theoretical state-dependent pricing framework. We use it to study how optimal pricing depends on the persistence of monetary shocks, the elasticities of labor supply and goods demand, and the interest sensitivity of money demand.

Production, growth and business cycles: II. New directions

Abstract This paper outlines new directions for investigations of real business cycle models: consideration of stochastic growth of exogenous and endogenous forms, analysis of suboptimal outcomes arising due to externalities of distorting taxes, and implications of labor market heterogeneity.

Time-Separable Preferences and Intertemporal-Substitution Models of Business Cycles

Time-separability of utility means that past work and consumption do not influence current and future tastes. This form of preferences does not restrict the size of intertemporal-substitution effects--notably, we can still have a strong response of labor supply to temporary changes in wages. However, there are important constraints on the relative responses of leisure and consumption to changes in relative-price and in permanent income. When the usual aggregation is permissible, time-separability has some important implications for equilibrium theories of the business cycle. Neglecting investment, we, find that changes in perceptions about the future -- which night appear currently as income effects -- have no influence on current equilibrium output. With investment included, no combination of income effects and shifts to the perceived profitability of investment will yield positive co-movements of output, employment, investment and consumption. Therefore, misperceived monetary disturbances or other sources of changed beliefs about the future cannot be used to generate empirically recognizable business cycles. Some richer specifications of intertemporal production opportunities may eventually yield more satisfactory answers. Because of the positive correlation between cyclical movements of consumption and work, equilibrium theories with time-separable preferences inevitably predict a procyclical behavior for the real wage rate, arising from shifts to labors marginal product. Empirically, we regard the cyclical behavior of real wages as an open question. Aside from analyzing autonomous real shocks to productivity, we suggest that such shifts may occur as firms vary their capital utilization in response to intertemporal relative prices. However, we still lack some parts of a complete theory.

Money demand in the United States: A quantitative review

Abstract There have been hundreds—perhaps thousands— of theoretical and empirical studies of the demand for money since the publication of Meltzers (1963) work. In the graduate courses that I took during the mid-1970s, surveys of the literature on the demand for money included batteries of specifications that were distinguished by choice of (i) monetary aggregate studied; (ii) interest rates differing by term and issuer; (iii) scale variable; (iv) lag structure; and (v) imposition of homogeneity additional issues has emerged concerning the implicaions of financial deregulation and currency substitution under flexible exchange rates.

Financial deregulation, monetary policy, and central banking

The paper analyzes the need for financial regulations in the implementation of central bank policy. It emphasizes that a central bank serves two functions. Central banks function as monetary authorities, managing high-powered money to influence the price level and real activity; and they engage in regular and emergency lending to financial institutions. The authors term these functions monetary and banking policies, respectively. They emphasize that regulations are not essential for the execution of monetary policy because high-powered money can be managed with open market operations in government bonds. By its very nature, however, banking policy involves a swap of government securities for claims on individual banks. Just as private lenders must restrict and monitor individual borrowers, a central bank must regulate and supervise the institutions that borrow from it. Virtually all economists agree that there is an important role for monetary policy to stabilize prices and real activity. Banking policy has been rationalized as a source of funds for temporarily illiquid but solvent banks. To assess that rationale, the authors develop the distinction between illiquidity and insolvency in detail, showing the distinction to be meaningful precisely because information about the value of bank assets is incomplete and costly to obtain. Nevertheless, they explain why the cost of information per se cannot rationalize banking policy. On the basis of such considerations, they find it difficult to make a case for banking policy and the regulatory and supervisory activities that support it.

The post-war U.S. phillips curve: a revisionist econometric history

In 1958, A.W. Phillips discovered a strong negative correlation between inflation and unemployment in United Kingdom data. Continuing controversy surrounds the long-run trade-off suggested by a curve he drew through these observations. We conduct a wide-ranging investigation of the post-war U.S. Phillips correlations and Phillips curve. Many economists view the Phillips correlations as chimerical, given the rise in both inflation and unemployment during the 197Os, and the Phillips curve as plagued by subtle identification difficulties raised by Lucas and Sargent. Yet, a strikingly stable negative correlation exists over the business cycle, and recent theory indicates the Lucas-Sargent critique may not be empirically relevant. When we estimate the long-run trade-off as Gordon and Solow did, we find it is roughly one-for-one. This traditional Keynesian identification also makes business cycles entirely due to demand shocks. However, the Gordon-Solow model is not the only one that fits the data well. Alternative identifications lead to much more modest effects of demand on business cycles and essentially negligible long-run trade-offs. *We have received many constructive comments on this paper: we particularly thank Charles Evans, Robert J. Gordon, Bennett McCallum, and Charles Plosser. Support was provided by the National Science Foundation via grant NSF-91-22463.