Robert H. Edelstein

Global Financial Integration and Real Estate Security Returns

Have globalization and increasing economic and financial integration affected the rates of return of publicly traded real estate companies around the world? Using a set of multi-factor models for annual data for 946 firms from 16 countries over the sample period, 1995-2002, we estimate the impact of a countrys economic openness on returns of publicly traded real estate firms, controlling for the effects of global capital markets, domestic macro-economic, and firm-specific variables. We find that a countrys real estate security excess (risk-adjusted) returns are negatively related to its openness. The results are robust across different multi-factor model specifications, and suggest that real property market efficiency may have been enhanced for non-tradable goods such as real estate in globalizing economies.

A tale of two sectors: Upward mobility and the private housing market in Singapore

Abstract Our paper examines the determinants of new private residential units sold in Singapore during the 1990s. The Singapore housing market is characterized by the coexistence of a dominant public sector and a small, growing private sector with relatively higher quality housing. The distinguishing feature of our model is that we account for the impact of the former on the latter, and the interaction between the two. Our analysis generates three principal conclusions: first, there is a statistically significant “wealth effect” driving the sales of new private residential properties. Second, the real loan interest rates have a statistically significant negative impact on these sales. Finally, an increase in the rate of change of public housing resale prices has an important and significant positive impact on the sales of private residential units. This is due in part to mitigation of downpayment constraints of upwardly mobile households.

Dynamic Residential Housing Cycles Analysis

This paper develops and tests a theoretical model for residential housing market cyclical dynamics. The model employs an interactive supply and demand framework to engender housing price dynamics. Under our set of assumptions, the two equation system is econometrically identified: the first equation, housing demand, relates rent, property values, and capitalization rates with demand fundamentals. The second equation, housing supply, relates housing investment and property values with supply fundamentals. Using the model, we analyze empirically the cyclical dynamics for residential properties in Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Diego and Sacramento for the 1988-2003 time period. The theoretical and econometric design represents improvements and/or modifications of previous studies in at least four ways. First, many of the earlier commercial cyclical analyses have focused on office appraisal and have relied on sparse transactions data, which are likely to be less reliable than the copious amount of residential transactions data. Second, the cyclical volatility and timing of single-family housing is different than that of commercial real estate. Third, by examining different local MSA markets in California, our study distinguishes and isolates national-macro, regional and local market variable effects upon cycles. Finally, utilizing quarterly data (versus annual data) sharpens our ability to focus upon cyclical behaviour. Our empirical analyses suggest that fundamentals, such as employment growth and interest rates are key determinants of the residential real estate cycles. However, in general, local fundamentals tend to have greater cyclical impacts than those of national or regional fundamentals.

Real Estate Income and Value Cycles: A Model of Market Dynamics

We develop a theoretical real estate cycles model linking economic fundamentals to real estate income and value. We estimate and test an econometric model specification, based on the theoretical model, using MSA level data for twenty office markets in the United States. Our major conclusion is that cities that exhibit seemingly different cyclical office market behavior may be statistically characterized by our three-parameter econometric specification. The parameters are MSA-specific amplitude, through the CAP rate, cycle duration (peak-to-peak), via the rate of partial adjustments to changing expectations about stabilized NOI and the market trend.

Determinants of the Rate of Return for Nonresidential Real Estate: Inflation Expectations and Market Adjustment Lags

This paper analyzes the economic forces that determine the real rate of return for nonresidential real estate. Our analysis shows that the intermarket variation in the real rate of return is statistically significant, and the rate of return differs by land use and market area, as well as over time in response to changes in macro-economic conditions. We use inflation variables as surrogates for changes in macroeconomic conditions over time. In contrast to earlier studies, we find that nonresidential real estate may not outperform expected inflation. We believe that the impact of expected inflation (and other macroeconomic variables) on real estate rates of return depends upon the interaction of the macro-environment and specific local real estate market conditions. Finally, our empirical evidence suggests that the effects of a given shock dissipate rather quickly in most markets when we take into account locational and property use differences. Copyright American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association.

Does Credit Rationing Affect Residential Investment? Deja Vu All Over Again

This paper develops an empirical model to examine the impacts of credit rationing on residential investment for the 1960–1984 period. Our statistical results strongly support the position that noninterest rate variables affect mortgage activity and housing construction. Though we find a structural change in the housing construction and mortgage markets in the early 1980s, probably attributable to capital market integration and financial institutional deregulation, noninterest rate terms continue to matter. In other words, credit rationing continues to be an “allocative device” in the housing and mortgage markets.

Optimal Loan Interest Rate Contract Design

This paper analyzes optimal loan interest rate contracts under conditions of risky, symmetric information for one-period (static) and multi-period (dynamic) models. The optimal loan interest rate depends upon the volatility of, and co-variation among the market interest rate, borrower collateral, and borrower income, as well as the time horizon and the risk preferences of lenders and borrowers. For a risk-averse borrower with stochastic collateral, variable interest rate contracts are, in general, Pareto optimal. For plausible assumptions, the optimal loan interest rate for the multi-period model often exhibits “muted” responses to changes in market interest rates, making fixed rate loans a reasonable approximation for the optimal loan. Hence, in the absence of optimal contracts, long-term (short-term) borrowers tend to prefer fixed rate (variable) contracts.

Towards a Real Estate Land use Modeling Paradigm

This article develops a conceptual research-oriented framework for understanding how land uses are allocated in the marketplace. The analyses highlight the crucial roles that market information and transaction costs play in determining the outcomes of transactions between real estate users and suppliers and the dynamics of real estate land uses and prices. Copyright American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association.

Interest Rate Risk and Optimal Design of Mortgage Instruments

This article develops and analyzes a simple expected utility model for interest rate risk and mortgage choice. The model demonstrates how the risks of interest rate changes should be allocated between borrowers and lenders through varying mortgage payments. In general, we conclude that full protection against interest rate risk, as a normative guideline, is likely to be suboptimal for the typical household. Our results show that the optimal design of adjustable rate mortgages should include an interest rate CAP provision.

Ownership Dynamics with Multiple Insiders: The Case of Reits

We study ownership dynamics of multiple strategic risk-averse insiders facing a moral hazard problem. We show that, when insiders cannot commit, ex ante, to an ownership policy, the aggregate insider stake gradually declines toward the competitive market allocation. Both the speed of adjustment and the long-term equilibrium aggregate insider ownership level are greater for companies with a larger number of insiders, ceteris paribus. Using data from U.S. real estate investment trusts, we then test the model and find that the predictions of the model are verified empirically.