Robert Inklaar

Will business cycles in the Euro Area converge: a critical survey of empirical research

This survey of business cycle synchronization in the European monetary union focuses on two issues: have business cycles become more similar, and which factors drive business cycle synchronization. We conclude that business cycles in the euro area have gone through periods of both convergence and divergence. Still, there is quite some evidence that during the 1990s business cycle synchronization in the euro area has increased. Higher trade intensity is found to lead to more synchronization, but the point estimates vary widely. The evidence for other factors affecting business cycle synchronization is very mixed.

ICT and Europe's productivity performance : Industry-level growth account comparisons with the United States

In this paper we present a new industry-level database to analyze sources of growth in four major European countries: France, Germany, Netherlands and the United Kingdom (EU-4), in comparison with the United States for the period 1979-2000. Aggregate labor productivity growth is decomposed into industry-level contributions of labor quality, ICT and non-ICT capital deepening and TFP. A small set of service industries is mainly responsible for the acceleration in ICT capital deepening in both regions, but their contribution to growth is lower in the EU-4 than in the U.S. TFP in these ICT-intensive services accelerated in the U.S. in the 1990s, but not in Europe. In addition, widespread deceleration in non-ICT capital deepening in the EU-4 has led to a European labor productivity slowdown.

Market Services Productivity Across Europe and the US

Since the mid-1990s, market services have positively influenced labor productivity growth in the US, but not in most European countries. We analyze these cross-country differences in growth dynamics using industry-level measures of output, inputs, and multifactor productivity (MFP) from the new EU KLEMS database. We find that using detailed data has important implications for empirical analysis of policy influences on growth. Increased investment in information and communication technology (ICT) capital and growth in human capital contributed substantially to labor productivity growth in market services across all European countries and the US. However, countries differ most strongly in the rates of efficiency improvement in the use of inputs. We find no evidence of an externality-driven relationship between such efficiency changes and the growth of ICT use or of employment of university-educated workers. We also find that entry liberalization has been beneficial for productivity growth in telecommunications, but not in other service industries. Copyright (c) CEPR, CES, MSH, 2008..

Have Business Cycles Become More Synchronized

Will further integration make business cycles in EMU countries more similar? This article answers the question by analysing to what extent business cycles in US and German states have become more synchronized and by examining whether synchronization in OECD countries is affected by trade intensity and exchange rate stability. Using long-run data for the US we find only mixed evidence for synchronization. However, post-war data for Germany suggest that business cycles behave more similarly over time. The evidence for OECD countries is mixed: trade intensity has led to more, and exchange rate stability to less, synchronization.

THE VALUE OF RISK : MEASURING THE SERVICE OUTPUT OF U.S. COMMERCIAL BANKS

Rather than charging direct fees, banks often charge implicitly for their services via interest spreads. As a result, much of bank output has to be estimated indirectly. In contrast to current statistical practice, dynamic optimizing models of banks argue that compensation for bearing systematic risk is not part of bank output. We apply these models and find that between 1997 and 2007, in the U.S. National Accounts, on average, bank output is overestimated by 21 percent and GDP is overestimated by 0.3 percent. Moreover, compared with current methods, our new estimates imply more plausible estimates of the share of capital in income and the return on fixed capital.(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Cyclical Productivity in Europe and the United States: Evaluating the Evidence on Returns to Scale and Input Utilization

This paper studies procyclical productivity growth at the industry level in the United States and three European countries (France, Germany and the Netherlands). Industry-specific demand-side instruments are used to examine the prevalence of non-constant returns to scale and unmeasured input utilization. For the aggregate US economy, unmeasured input utilization seems to explain procyclical productivity. However, this correction still leaves one in three US industries with procyclical productivity. This failure of the model can also be seen in Europe and is mostly concentrated in services industries.

Real Output of Bank Services: What Counts is What Banks Do, Not What They Own

We argue that models of banks as processors of information and transactions imply a quantity measure of bank output based on transaction counts instead of balances of loans and deposits. Compiling new and comparable real output measures for the USA and a range of European countries, we show that counts‐based output series exhibit substantially different growth patterns than balances‐based output series. Since the US official statistics rely on counts while European statistics rely on balances, this implies that comparisons of bank output growth between Europe and the USA are biased.

Bank Output Measurement in the Euro Area: A Modified Approach

Banks do not charge explicit fees for many of the services they provide, bundling the service payment with the offered interest rates. This output therefore has to be imputed using estimates of the opportunity cost of funds. We argue that rather than using the single short‐term, low‐risk interest rate as in current official statistics, reference rates should match the risk characteristics of loans and deposits. This would lower euro area imputed bank output by, on average, 28–54 percent compared with the current methodology, implying that euro area GDP (at current prices) is overstated by 0.11–0.18 percent. This adjustment also leads to more plausible shares in value added of income from fixed capital in the banking industry.

The Employment Effects of the 'New Economy' A Comparison of the European Union and the United States

This paper provides an analysis of the trends in labour productivity and employment growth at industry level in the European Union and the United States during the 1990s. We analyse relationships for groups of industries, i.e. industries that produce ICT products and services, those that invest strongly in ICT, and those that make less intensive use of ICT. The main findings are that the inverse relationship between employment and productivity growth has been much more prominent in manufacturing industries than in services industries. Secondly, during the 1990s, this relationship has turned positive in many industries, in particular in ICT-producing industries and in ICT-using industries in the service sector. Finally, the employment-reducing effects of productivity growth have remained considerably stronger in Europe than in the US.

Did Technology Shocks Drive the Great Depression? Explaining Cyclical Productivity Movements in U.S. Manufacturing, 1919–1939

Technology shocks and declining productivity have been advanced as important factors driving the Great Depression in the United States, based on real business cycle theory. We estimate an improved measure of technology for interwar manufacturing, using data from the U.S. census reports. There is clear evidence of increasing returns to scale and we find no statistical proof that technology shocks led to changes in hours worked or other inputs. This contradicts a key prediction of real business cycle theory. We find that increasing returns to scale are not due to market power but to labor and capital hoarding.