Robert J. Glass

A General Model of Resource Production and Exchange in Systems of Interdependent Specialists

Infrastructures are networks of dynamically interacting systems designed for the flow of information, energy, and materials. Under certain circumstances, disturbances from a targeted attack or natural disasters can cause cascading failures within and between infrastructures that result in significant service losses and long recovery times. Reliable interdependency models that can capture such multi-network cascading do not exist. The research reported here has extended Sandias infrastructure modeling capabilities by: (1) addressing interdependencies among networks, (2) incorporating adaptive behavioral models into the network models, and (3) providing mechanisms for evaluating vulnerability to targeted attack and unforeseen disruptions. We have applied these capabilities to evaluate the robustness of various systems, and to identify factors that control the scale and duration of disruption. This capability lays the foundation for developing advanced system security solutions that encompass both external shocks and internal dynamics.

Complex Adaptive System of Systems (CASoS) Engineering Applications. Version 1.0.

Complex Adaptive Systems of Systems, or CASoS, are vastly complex eco-socio-economic-technical systems which we must understand to design a secure future for the nation and the world. Perturbations/disruptions in CASoS have the potential for far-reaching effects due to highly-saturated interdependencies and allied vulnerabilities to cascades in associated systems. The Phoenix initiative approaches this high-impact problem space as engineers, devising interventions (problem solutions) that influence CASoS to achieve specific aspirations. CASoS embody the worlds biggest problems and greatest opportunities: applications to real world problems are the driving force of our effort. We are developing engineering theory and practice together to create a discipline that is grounded in reality, extends our understanding of how CASoS behave, and allows us to better control those behaviors. Through application to real-world problems, Phoenix is evolving CASoS Engineering principles while growing a community of practice and the CASoS engineers to populate it.

Modeling Hepatitis C treatment policy.

Chronic infection with Hepatitis C virus (HCV) results in cirrhosis, liver cancer and death. As the nations largest provider of care for HCV, US Veterans Health Administration (VHA) invests extensive resources in the diagnosis and treatment of the disease. This report documents modeling and analysis of HCV treatment dynamics performed for the VHA aimed at improving service delivery efficiency. System dynamics modeling of disease treatment demonstrated the benefits of early detection and the role of comorbidities in disease progress and patient mortality. Preliminary modeling showed that adherence to rigorous treatment protocols is a primary determinant of treatment success. In depth meta-analysis revealed correlations of adherence and various psycho-social factors. This initial meta-analysis indicates areas where substantial improvement in patient outcomes can potentially result from VA programs which incorporate these factors into their design.

Complex Adaptive Systems of Systems (CASOS) engineering environment.

Complex Adaptive Systems of Systems, or CASoS, are vastly complex physical-socio-technical systems which we must understand to design a secure future for the nation. The Phoenix initiative implements CASoS Engineering principles combining the bottom up Complex Systems and Complex Adaptive Systems view with the top down Systems Engineering and System-of-Systems view. CASoS Engineering theory and practice must be conducted together to develop a discipline that is grounded in reality, extends our understanding of how CASoS behave and allows us to better control the outcomes. The pull of applications (real world problems) is critical to this effort, as is the articulation of a CASoS Engineering Framework that grounds an engineering approach in the theory of complex adaptive systems of systems. Successful application of the CASoS Engineering Framework requires modeling, simulation and analysis (MS and A) capabilities and the cultivation of a CASoS Engineering Community of Practice through knowledge sharing and facilitation. The CASoS Engineering Environment, itself a complex adaptive system of systems, constitutes the two platforms that provide these capabilities.

Phoenix : Complex Adaptive System of Systems (CASoS) engineering version 1.0.

Complex Adaptive Systems of Systems, or CASoS, are vastly complex ecological, sociological, economic and/or technical systems which we must understand to design a secure future for the nation and the world. Perturbations/disruptions in CASoS have the potential for far-reaching effects due to pervasive interdependencies and attendant vulnerabilities to cascades in associated systems. Phoenix was initiated to address this high-impact problem space as engineers. Our overarching goals are maximizing security, maximizing health, and minimizing risk. We design interventions, or problem solutions, that influence CASoS to achieve specific aspirations. Through application to real-world problems, Phoenix is evolving the principles and discipline of CASoS Engineering while growing a community of practice and the CASoS engineers to populate it. Both grounded in reality and working to extend our understanding and control of that reality, Phoenix is at the same time a solution within a CASoS and a CASoS itself.