Robert J. Pabst

Potential effects of forest policies on terrestrial biodiversity in a multi-ownership province.

We used spatial simulation models to evaluate how current and two alternative policies might affect potential biodiversity over 100 years in the Coast Ranges Physiographic Province of Oregon. This 2.3-million-ha province is characterized by a diversity of public and private forest owners, and a wide range of forest policy and management objectives. We evaluated habitat availability for seven focal species representing different life histories. We also examined how policies affected old-growth stand structure, age distributions relative to the historical range of variability, and landscape patterns of forest types. Under the current policy scenario, the area of habitat for old-growth forest structure and associated species increased over time, the habitat for some early-successional associates remained stable, and the area of hardwood vegetation and diverse early-successional stages declined. The province is projected to move toward but not reach the historical range of variation of forest age classes that may have occurred under the wildfire regimes of the pre-Euroamerican settlement period. Ownership explained much of the pattern of biodiversity in the province, and under the current policy scenario, its effect increased over time as the landscape diverged into highly contrasting forest structures and ages. Patch type diversity declined slightly overall but declined strongly within ownerships. Most of the modeled change in biodiversity over time resulted from policies on public forest lands that were intended to increase the area of late-successional forests and species. One of the alternative policies, increased retention of wildlife trees on private lands, reduced the contrast between ownerships and increased habitat availability over time for both early- and late-successional species. Analysis of another alternative, stopping thinning of plantations on federal lands, indicated that current thinning regimes improve habitat for the Olive-sided Flycatcher, but the no-thinning alternative had no effect on the habitat scores for the late-successional species in the 100-year simulation. A comparison of indicators of biological diversity suggests that using focal species and forest structural measures can provide complementary information on biodiversity. The multi-ownership perspective provided a more complete synthesis of province-wide biodiversity patterns than assessments based on single ownerships.

Using an agent-based model to examine forest management outcomes in a fire-prone landscape in Oregon, USA

Fire-prone landscapes present many challenges for both managers and policy makers in developing adaptive behaviors and institutions. We used a coupled human and natural systems framework and an agent-based landscape model to examine how alternative management scenarios affect fire and ecosystem services metrics in a fire-prone multiownership landscape in the eastern Cascades of Oregon. Our model incorporated existing models of vegetation succession and fire spread and information from original empirical studies of landowner decision making. Our findings indicate that alternative management strategies can have variable effects on landscape outcomes over 50 years for fire, socioeconomic, and ecosystem services metrics. For example, scenarios with federal restoration treatments had slightly less high-severity fire than a scenario without treatment; exposure of homes in the wildland-urban interface to fire was also slightly less with restoration treatments compared to no management. Treatments appeared to be more effective at reducing high-severity fire in years with more fire than in years with less fire. Under the current management scenario, timber production could be maintained for at least 50 years on federal lands. Under an accelerated restoration scenario, timber production fell because of a shortage of areas meeting current stand structure treatment targets. Trade-offs between restoration outcomes (e.g., open forests with large fire-resistant trees) and habitat for species that require dense older forests were evident. For example, the proportional area of nesting habitat for northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis) was somewhat less after 50 years under the restoration scenarios than under no management. However, the amount of resilient older forest structure and habitat for white-headed woodpecker (Leuconotopicus albolarvatus) was higher after 50 years under active management. More carbon was stored on this landscape without management than with management, despite the occurrence of high-severity wildfire. Our results and further applications of the model could be used in collaborative settings to facilitate discussion and development of policies and practices for fire-prone landscapes.

Varying densities of Pacific madrone in a young stand in Oregon alter soil water potential, plant moisture stress, and growth of Douglas fir.

Abstract Soil water-potential and Douglas fir [Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco] moisture stress and growth were studied on a droughty, 2-ha site in southwest Oregon where Pacific madrone (Arbutus menziesii Pursh) and associated shrub and herbaceous vegetation were thinned to represent the following range of conditions: high-density madrone (H), with associated shrubs and herbs controlled; medium-density madrone (M), shrubs and herbs controlled; low-density madrone (L), shrubs and herbs controlled; no madrone (N), shrubs and herbs controlled; and no madrone (U), shrubs and herbs predominate. Soil water-potential (Ψs) at a depth of 0–30 cm was consistently higher in treatment N than in all other treatments; in 1987 this difference was significant (P Predawn plant moisture stress ( pms ) of Douglas fir was significantly (P=0.0001) less in treatment N than in all other treatments. Seasonal moisture-stress relief ( smsr ) of Douglas fir was significantly related to madrone leaf area index (L) (r2=0.75, P=0.003), and was greatest in treatment N. Seasonal moisture-stress relief of madrone was also significantly correlated with L (r2=0.66, P=0.03). There were highly significant linear relationships between both predawn and midday pms and soil water-potential for Douglas fir (r2=0.76 and 0.75) and madrone (r2=0.69 and 0.79). Results clearly show that conditions for maximum Douglas-fir growth occurred in treatment N, in which all madrone and the associated vegetation were controlled. Average diameter growth of Douglas fir was greatest in treatment N, although not significantly different from that in treatment U, and least in treatment H. In 1987, Douglas-fir growth in diameter, stem basal-area, and stem volume was strongly related to smsr (r2=0.62–0.81) and madrone L (r2=0.66–0.87), and to a lesser extent, seasonal soil tension relief ( sstr ) (r2=0.51–0.62).

Spatiotemporal dynamics of simulated wildfire, forest management, and forest succession in central Oregon, USA

We use the simulation model Envision to analyze long-term wildfire dynamics and the effects of different fuel management scenarios in central Oregon, USA. We simulated a 50-year future where fuel management activities were increased by doubling and tripling the current area treated while retaining existing treatment strategies in terms of spatial distribution and treatment type. We modeled forest succession using a state-and-transition approach and simulated wildfires based on the contemporary fire regime of the region. We tested for the presence of temporal trends and overall differences in burned area among four fuel management scenarios. Results showed that when the forest was managed to reduce fuels it burned less: over the course of 50 years there was up to a 40% reduction in area burned. However, simulation outputs did not reveal the expected temporal trend, i.e., area burned did not decrease progressively with time, nor did the absence of management lead to its increase. These results can be explained as the consequence of an existing wildfire deficit and vegetation succession paths that led to closed canopy, and heavy fuels forest types that are unlikely to burn under average fire weather. Fire (and management) remained relatively rare disturbances and, given our assumptions, were unable to alter long-term vegetation patterns and consequently unable to alter long-term wildfire dynamics. Doubling and tripling current management targets were effective in the near term but not sustainable through time because of a scarcity of stands eligible to treat according to the modeled management constraints. These results provide new insights into the long-term dynamics between fuel management programs and wildfire and demonstrate that treatment prioritization strategies have limited effect on fire activity if they are too narrowly focused on particular forest conditions.

Evaluating carbon storage, timber harvest, and habitat possibilities for a Western Cascades (USA) forest landscape

Forest policymakers and managers have long sought ways to evaluate the capability of forest landscapes to jointly produce timber, habitat, and other ecosystem services in response to forest management. Currently, carbon is of particular interest as policies for increasing carbon storage on federal lands are being proposed. However, a challenge in joint production analysis of forest management is adequately representing ecological conditions and processes that influence joint production relationships. We used simulation models of vegetation structure, forest sector carbon, and potential wildlife habitat to characterize landscape-level joint production possibilities for carbon storage, timber harvest, and habitat for seven wildlife species across a range of forest management regimes. We sought to (1) characterize the general relationships of production possibilities for combinations of carbon storage, timber, and habitat, and (2) identify management variables that most influence joint production relationships. Our 160 000-ha study landscape featured environmental conditions typical of forests in the Western Cascade Mountains of Oregon (USA). Our results indicate that managing forests for carbon storage involves trade-offs among timber harvest and habitat for focal wildlife species, depending on the disturbance interval and utilization intensity followed. Joint production possibilities for wildlife species varied in shape, ranging from competitive to complementary to compound, reflecting niche breadth and habitat component needs of species examined. Managing Pacific Northwest forests to store forest sector carbon can be roughly complementary with habitat for Northern Spotted Owl, Olive-sided Flycatcher, and red tree vole. However, managing forests to increase carbon storage potentially can be competitive with timber production and habitat for Pacific marten, Pileated Woodpecker, and Western Bluebird, depending on the disturbance interval and harvest intensity chosen. Our analysis suggests that joint production possibilities under forest management regimes currently typical on industrial forest lands (e.g., 40- to 80-yr rotations with some tree retention for wildlife) represent but a small fraction of joint production outcomes possible in the region. Although the theoretical boundaries of the production possibilities sets we developed are probably unachievable in the current management environment, they arguably define the long-term potential of managing forests to produce multiple ecosystem services within and across multiple forest ownerships.

Interactive visual analysis promotes exploration of long-term ecological data

Long-term ecological data are crucial in helping ecologists understand ecosystem function and environmental change. Nevertheless, these kinds of data sets are difficult to analyze because they are usually large, multivariate, and spatiotemporal. Although existing analysis tools such as statistical methods and spreadsheet software permit rigorous tests of pre-conceived hypotheses and static charts for simple data exploration, they have limited capacity to provide an overview of the data and to enable ecologists to explore data iteratively, and interactively, before committing to statistical analysis. These issues hinder how ecologists gain knowledge and generate hypotheses from long-term data. We present Ecological Distributions and Trends Explorer (EcoDATE), a web-based, visual-analysis tool that facilitates exploratory analysis of long-term ecological data (i.e., generating hypotheses as opposed to confirming hypotheses). The tool, which is publicly available online, was created and refined through a user-centered design process in which our team of ecologists and visualization researchers collaborated closely. The results of our collaboration were (1) a set of visual representation and interaction techniques well suited to communicating distribution patterns and temporal trends in ecological data sets, and (2) an understanding of processes ecologists use to explore data and generate and test hypotheses. We present three case studies to demonstrate the utility of EcoDATE and the exploratory analysis processes using long-term data on cone production, stream chemistry, and forest structure collected as part of the H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest (HJA), Long Term Ecological Research (LTER), and US Forest Service Pacific Northwest Research Station programs. We also present results from a survey of 15 participants of a working group at the 2012 LTER All Scientists Meeting that showed that users appreciated the tool for its ease of use, holistic access to large data sets, and interactivity.