Robert M. Hirsch

Stationarity Is Dead: Whither Water Management?

Climate change undermines a basic assumption that historically has facilitated management of water supplies, demands, and risks.

Climate change. Stationarity is dead: whither water management?

Climate change undermines a basic assumption that historically has facilitated management of water supplies, demands, and risks.

Monitoring and Understanding Changes in Heat Waves, Cold Waves, Floods, and Droughts in the United States: State of Knowledge

Weather and climate extremes have been varying and changing on many different time scales. In recent decades, heat waves have generally become more frequent across the United States, while cold waves have been decreasing. While this is in keeping with expectations in a warming climate, it turns out that decadal variations in the number of U.S. heat and cold waves do not correlate well with the observed U.S. warming during the last century. Annual peak flow data reveal that river flooding trends on the century scale do not show uniform changes across the country. While flood magnitudes in the Southwest have been decreasing, flood magnitudes in the Northeast and north-central United States have been increasing. Confounding the analysis of trends in river flooding is multiyear and even multidecadal variability likely caused by both large-scale atmospheric circulation changes and basin-scale “memory” in the form of soil moisture. Droughts also have long-term trends as well as multiyear and decadal variability...

Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season (WRTDS), with an Application to Chesapeake Bay River Inputs

A new approach to the analysis of long-term surface water-quality data is proposed and implemented. The goal of this approach is to increase the amount of information that is extracted from the types of rich water-quality datasets that now exist. The method is formulated to allow for maximum flexibility in representations of the long-term trend, seasonal components, and discharge-related components of the behavior of the water-quality variable of interest. It is designed to provide internally consistent estimates of the actual history of concentrations and fluxes as well as histories that eliminate the influence of year-to-year variations in streamflow. The method employs the use of weighted regressions of concentrations on time, discharge, and season. Finally, the method is designed to be useful as a diagnostic tool regarding the kinds of changes that are taking place in the watershed related to point sources, groundwater sources, and surface-water nonpoint sources. The method is applied to datasets for the nine large tributaries of Chesapeake Bay from 1978 to 2008. The results show a wide range of patterns of change in total phosphorus and in dissolved nitrate plus nitrite. These results should prove useful in further examination of the causes of changes, or lack of changes, and may help inform decisions about future actions to reduce nutrient enrichment in the Chesapeake Bay and its watershed. Hirsch, Robert M., Douglas L. Moyer, and Stacey A. Archfield, 2010. Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season (WRTDS), With an Application to Chesapeake Bay River Inputs. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(5):857-880. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00482.x

Has the magnitude of floods across the USA changed with global CO2 levels

Abstract Statistical relationships between annual floods at 200 long-term (85–127 years of record) streamgauges in the coterminous United States and the global mean carbon dioxide concentration (GMCO2) record are explored. The streamgauge locations are limited to those with little or no regulation or urban development. The coterminous US is divided into four large regions and stationary bootstrapping is used to evaluate if the patterns of these statistical associations are significantly different from what would be expected under the null hypothesis that flood magnitudes are independent of GMCO2. In none of the four regions defined in this study is there strong statistical evidence for flood magnitudes increasing with increasing GMCO2. One region, the southwest, showed a statistically significant negative relationship between GMCO2 and flood magnitudes. The statistical methods applied compensate both for the inter-site correlation of flood magnitudes and the shorter-term (up to a few decades) serial correlation of floods. Citation Hirsch, R.M. and Ryberg, K.R., 2012. Has the magnitude of floods across the USA changed with global CO2 levels? Hydrolological Sciences Journal, 57 (1), 1–9.

Nitrate in the Mississippi River and its tributaries, 1980 to 2008: are we making progress?

Changes in nitrate concentration and flux between 1980 and 2008 at eight sites in the Mississippi River basin were determined using a new statistical method that accommodates evolving nitrate behavior over time and produces flow-normalized estimates of nitrate concentration and flux that are independent of random variations in streamflow. The results show that little consistent progress has been made in reducing riverine nitrate since 1980, and that flow-normalized concentration and flux are increasing in some areas. Flow-normalized nitrate concentration and flux increased between 9 and 76% at four sites on the Mississippi River and a tributary site on the Missouri River, but changed very little at tributary sites on the Ohio, Iowa, and Illinois Rivers. Increases in flow-normalized concentration and flux at the Mississippi River at Clinton and Missouri River at Hermann were more than three times larger than at any other site. The increases at these two sites contributed much of the 9% increase in flow-normalized nitrate flux leaving the Mississippi River basin. At most sites, concentrations increased more at low and moderate streamflows than at high streamflows, suggesting that increasing groundwater concentrations are having an effect on river concentrations.

River chloride trends in snow-affected urban watersheds: increasing concentrations outpace urban growth rate and are common among all seasons

Chloride concentrations in northern U.S. included in this study have increased substantially over time with average concentrations approximately doubling from 1990 to 2011, outpacing the rate of urbanization in the northern U.S. Historical data were examined for 30 monitoring sites on 19 streams that had chloride concentration and flow records of 18 to 49 years. Chloride concentrations in most studied streams increased in all seasons (13 of 19 in all seasons; 16 of 19 during winter); maximum concentrations occurred during winter. Increasing concentrations during non-deicing periods suggest that chloride was stored in hydrologic reservoirs, such as the shallow groundwater system, during the winter and slowly released in baseflow throughout the year. Streamflow dependency was also observed with chloride concentrations increasing as streamflow decreased, a result of dilution during rainfall- and snowmelt-induced high-flow periods. The influence of chloride on aquatic life increased with time; 29% of sites studied exceeded the concentration for the USEPA chronic water quality criteria of 230 mg/L by an average of more than 100 individual days per year during 2006-2011. The rapid rate of chloride concentration increase in these streams is likely due to a combination of possible increased road salt application rates, increased baseline concentrations, and greater snowfall in the Midwestern U.S. during the latter portion of the study period.

On Critiques of “Stationarity is Dead: Whither Water Management?”

We review and comment upon some themes in the recent stream of critical commentary on the assertion that “stationarity is dead,” attempting to clear up some misunderstandings; to note points of agreement; to elaborate on matters in dispute; and to share further relevant thoughts.

U.S. stream flow measurement and data dissemination improve

Stream flow information is essential for many important uses across a broad range of scales, including global water balances, engineering design, flood forecasting, reservoir operations, navigation, water supply, recreation, and environmental management. Growing populations and competing priorities for water, including preservation and restoration of aquatic habitat, are spurring demand for more accurate, timely, and accessible water data. To be most useful, stream flow information must be collected in a standardized manner, with a known accuracy and for a long and continuous time period. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) operates over 7000 stream gauges nationwide, which constitute over 90% of the nations stream gauges that provide daily stream flow records, and that are accessible to the public. Most stream flow records are not based on direct measurement of river discharge, but are derived from continuous measurements of river elevations or stage. These stage data, recorded to 3-mm accuracy are then converted into discharge by use of a stage/discharge relation (rating) that is unique for each stream gauging location. Because stream beds and banks are not static, neither is the stage discharge rating. Much of the effort and cost associated with stream gauging lies in establishing and updating this relation. Ten years ago, USGS personnel would visit stream gauging stations 8 to 10 times a year to make direct measurements of river depth, width, and velocity using mechanical instruments: a sounding rod or cable, a tagline, and a current meter. From these data, flow rates were computed.The range of measured flow and concurrent river stages were then used to build the rating curve for each site and to track changes to the rating curve.

Probability plotting position formulas for flood records with historical information

Abstract For purposes of evaluating fitted flood frequency distributions or for purposes of estimating distributions directly from plots of flood peaks versus exceedance probabilities (either by subjective or objective techniques), one needs a probability plotting position formula which can be applied to all of the flood data available: both systematic and historic floods. Some of the formulas in use are simply extensions of existing formulas (such as Hazen and Weibull) used on systematic flood records. New plotting position formulas proposed by Hirsch and Stedinger (1986) and in this paper are based on a recognition that the flood data arises from partially censored sampling of the flood record. The theoretical appropriateness, bias in probability and bias in discharge of the various plotting position formulas are considered. The methods are compared in terms of their effects on flood frequency estimation when an objective curve-fitting method of estimation is employed. Consideration is also given to the correct interpretation of the historical record length and the effect of incorrectly assuming that record length equals the time since the first known historical flood. This assumption is employed in many flood frequency studies and may result in a substantial bias in estimated design flood magnitudes.