Robert M. Schmidt

Saving dependency and development.

The widely-observed finding in the literature showing little or no relationship between population growth (and dependency) and saving requires modification based on panel and cross-section estimation of aggregate country data. While such a relationship is still weak in the hybrid Leff-type model, it is now found consistently over time and by stage of development in the Mason variable-growth life-cycle framework, where changes in demographic factors account for a notable part of saving.

Economic and Demographic Change: A Synthesis of Models, Findings, and Perspectives

Building upon recent Barro models that account for the impacts of various economic and political factors conditioning the pace of economic growth, we evaluate the merits of alternative specifications that expose the impacts of demographic change. For a sample of 89 countries, we arrive at the qualified judgment that rapid population growth exerted a fairly strong, adverse impact, on the pace of economic growth over the period 1960-1995. The positive impacts of density, size, and labor force entry were swamped by the costs of rearing children and maintaining an enlarged youth-dependency age structure.

Modeling Institutional Production of Higher Education.

Abstract The article examines the relative contributions of human and physical resources in the production of private undergraduate education. The research methods are noteworthy in three respects. First, the theoretical orientation emphasizes interdependence among inputs and outputs in higher education. The significance of simultaneity among quality students, faculty and institutional output is demonstrated via a three-stage least-squares technique. Second, the study introduces an output variable reflecting the quantity and quality of institutional production. Finally, the exclusive emphasis on private undergraduate institutions offers a well focused perspective for policy decisions in this area of higher education.

Assessing the impact of expenditure on achievement: Some methodological and policy considerations

Abstract The article examines the relationship between achievement and expenditure in primary and secondary public education. The estimation methods are noteworthy in three respects: (1) socioeconomic effects are treated via an “unobservable variables” technique; (2) measures of school district expenditure are valued in constant dollars by constructing locality-level price indices; and (3) we correct for heteroscedasticity, a problem which may be common in estimations using aggregate data. The data are from Virginia, a four-year cross-sectional panel aggregated at the school district level. The results reveal the importance of heteroscedasticity correction and the usefulness of an unobservable variables approach to modeling socioeconomic effects. The results are relatively insensitive to cost-of-living adjustment. Among the policy inferences, we find that expenditure effects on achievement may be stronger at the primary school level.

Toward a Cure for the Myopia and Tunnel Vision of the Population Debate: A Dose of Historical Perspective

A survey of the literature by economists specializing in population issues reveals a distinctly non-alarmist assessment of the impacts of rapid population growth. This is contrary to the assessments by non-specialists, and those in other fields. Economists tend to emphasize longer-run impacts, where feedbacks tend to attenuate negative short-run impacts of rapid demographic change.

Evaluating the Vocational Rehabilitation Program Using Longitudinal Data Evidence for a Quasiexperimental Research Design

The study presents benefit-cost ratios for 14 disability cohorts served by the Vocational Rehabilitation (VR) Program. The earnings impacts are estimated in a quasiexperimental framework using an internal comparison group. The earnings data are from a unique national panel constructed by linking client data of the Rehabilitative Services Administration with earnings histories from the Social Security Administration. These earnings data accommodate a series of statistical tests that allow us to identify and control for the presence of selection bias when estimating treatment impacts. The results indicate that the VR program is cost-effective in general, although not universally so across specific disabilities.

The Effects of Vocational Rehabilitation for People with Cognitive Impairments

This article utilizes administrative data to examine both short‐ and long‐term employment impacts for people with cognitive impairments who applied for vocational rehabilitation services in Virginia in 2000. These data provide long‐term quarterly information on services and employment outcomes. We model behavior, allow for multiple service choices, use long‐run labor market data, and use valid instruments. Results imply that services generally have positive long‐run labor market outcome effects that appear to substantially exceed the cost of providing services.

State Vocational Rehabilitation Programs and Federal Disability Insurance: An Analysis of Virginia's Vocational Rehabilitation Program

We examine the association between the receipt of vocational rehabilitation (VR) services and Federal Disability Insurance using a unique panel data source on persons who applied for assistance from Virginia’s VR program in 2000. Three central findings emerge: first, VR services are associated with lower rates of participation in disability insurance programs-a nearly 2 point drop in SSDI receipt and 1 point drop in SSI receipt. Second, VR service receipt is associated with lower take-up rates of SSDI/SSI. Finally, among VR applicants on SSDI/SSI, those who receive substantive VR services are more likely to be employed.JEL codesH51, I13, J24

The Impact of Class Size on Outcomes in Higher Education

Abstract Numerous studies have investigated the impact of class size on student outcomes. This analysis contributes to this discussion by isolating the impact of class size on student outcomes in higher education by utilizing a natural experiment at a selective institution which enables the estimation of class size effects conditional on the total number of students taught by a faculty member. We find that class size negatively impacts student assessments of courses and instructors. Large classes appear to prompt faculty to alter their courses in ways deleterious to students.

Risk adjustment and hospital cost-based resource allocation, with an application to El Salvador.

Ignorance about the costs, case loads and case mixes of different hospitals within the public health system constitutes an important obstacle to reforming health care spending in many developing countries. National (tertiary) hospitals generally receive significantly larger budgets, per patient, than lower-level (district) hospitals. One reason for these differential allocations is the widely held belief that national hospitals treat persons with more difficult illnesses and persons who are more severely ill than do other, non-national, hospitals. This belief is but a presumption and one that warrants investigation. This paper analyzes expenditures among public hospitals in El Salvador over a 12-year period to address this question. While controlling for patient morbidity, outputs and other characteristics, district hospitals are found to be substantially underfunded relative to national hospitals. Four policy options to redress this situation are examined.