Robert M. Weinstock

Risk of cataract after exposure to low doses of ionizing radiation: a 20-year prospective cohort study among US radiologic technologists.

The study aim was to determine the risk of cataract among radiologic technologists with respect to occupational and nonoccupational exposures to ionizing radiation and to personal characteristics. A prospective cohort of 35,705 cataract-free US radiologic technologists aged 24-44 years was followed for nearly 20 years (1983-2004) by using two follow-up questionnaires. During the study period, 2,382 cataracts and 647 cataract extractions were reported. Cigarette smoking for >or=5 pack-years; body mass index of >or=25 kg/m(2); and history of diabetes, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, or arthritis at baseline were significantly (p <or= 0.05) associated with increased risk of cataract. In multivariate models, self-report of >or=3 x-rays to the face/neck was associated with a hazard ratio of cataract of 1.25 (95% confidence interval: 1.06, 1.47). For workers in the highest category (mean, 60 mGy) versus lowest category (mean, 5 mGy) of occupational dose to the lens of the eye, the adjusted hazard ratio of cataract was 1.18 (95% confidence interval: 0.99, 1.40). Findings challenge the National Council on Radiation Protection and International Commission on Radiological Protection assumptions that the lowest cumulative ionizing radiation dose to the lens of the eye that can produce a progressive cataract is approximately 2 Gy, and they support the hypothesis that the lowest cataractogenic dose in humans is substantially less than previously thought.

Malignant Neoplasms after Radiation Therapy for Peptic Ulcer

Abstract Carr, Z. A., Kleinerman, R. A., Stovall, M., Weinstock, R. M., Griem, M. L. and Land, C. E. Malignant Neoplasms after Radiation Therapy for Peptic Ulcer. Radiat. Res. 157, 668–677 (2002). Most information on radiation-related cancer risk comes from the Life Span Study (LSS) of the Japanese atomic bomb survivors. Stomach cancer mortality rates are much higher in Japan than in the U.S., making the applicability of LSS findings to the U.S. population uncertain. A unique cohort of U.S. patients who were irradiated for peptic ulcer to control gastric secretion provides a different perspective on risk. Cancer mortality data were analyzed and relative risks estimated for 3719 subjects treated by radiotherapy (mean stomach dose 14.8 Gy) and/or by surgery and medication during the period 1936–1965 and followed through 1997 (average 25 years). Compared to the U.S. rates, stomach cancer mortality was significantly increased for irradiated and nonirradiated patients (observed/expected = 3.20 and 1.52, respectively). We observed strong evidence of exposure-related excess mortality from cancer of the stomach (RR 2.6, 95% CI 1.3, 5.1), pancreas (RR 2.7, 95% CI 1.5, 5.1), and lung (RR 1.5, 95% CI 1.1, 2.1), with commensurate radiation dose responses in analyses that included nonexposed patients. However, the dose responses for these cancers were not significant when restricted to exposed patients. Our excess relative risk per gray estimate of 0.20 at doses ≤10 Gy (95% CI 0, 0.73) is consistent with the estimate of 0.24 (95% CI 0.10, 0.40) obtained from the LSS study with the linear model.

Estimating Historical Radiation Doses to a Cohort of U.S. Radiologic Technologists

Abstract Simon, S. L., Weinstock, R. M., Doody, M. M., Neton, J., Wenzel, T., Stewart, P., Mohan, A. K., Yoder, C., Freedman, M., Hauptmann, M., Bouville, A., Cardarelli, J., Feng, H. A. and Linet, M. Estimating Historical Radiation Doses to a Cohort of U.S. Radiologic Technologists. Radiat. Res. 166, 174– 192 (2006). Data have been collected and physical and statistical models have been constructed to estimate unknown occupational radiation doses among 90,000 members of the U.S. Radiologic Technologists cohort who responded to a baseline questionnaire during the mid-1980s. Since the availability of radiation dose data differed by calendar period, different models were developed and applied for years worked before 1960, 1960– 1976 and 1977–1984. The dose estimation used available film-badge measurements (approximately 350,000) for individual cohort members, information provided by the technologists on their work history and protection practices, and measurement and other data derived from the literature. The dosimetry model estimates annual and cumulative occupational badge doses (personal dose equivalent) for each technologist for each year worked from 1916 through 1984 as well as absorbed doses to organs and tissues including bone marrow, female breast, thyroid, ovary, testes, lung and skin. Assumptions have been made about critical variables including average energy of X rays, use of protective aprons, position of film badges, and minimum detectable doses. Uncertainty of badge and organ doses was characterized for each year of each technologists working career. Monte Carlo methods were used to generate estimates of cumulative organ doses for preliminary cancer risk analyses. The models and predictions presented here, while continuing to be modified and improved, represent one of the most comprehensive dose reconstructions undertaken to date for a large cohort of medical radiation workers.

Retrospective Biodosimetry among United States Radiologic Technologists

Abstract Parveen, B., Preston, D. L., Doody, M. M., Hauptmann, M., Kampa, D., Alexander, B. H., Petibone, D., Simon, S. L., Weinstock, R. M., Bouville, A., Yong, L. C., Freedman, D. M., Mabuchi, K., Linet, M. S., Edwards, A. A., Tucker, J. D. and Sigurdson, A. J. Retrospective Biodosimetry among United States Radiologic Technologists. Radiat. Res. 167, 727–734 (2007). Measurement of chromosome translocations in peripheral blood lymphocytes has been used to quantify prior exposure to ionizing radiation, including for workers exposed to low, chronic doses. We assessed translocation frequencies in a subset of U.S. radiologic technologists to substantiate ionizing radiation dose estimates developed for 110,418 technologists who worked between 1916 and 1984. From 3,441 cohort members known to have begun working before 1950, we selected a sample of 152, stratified by estimated cumulative dose, oversampling from higher-dose categories and excluding persons with a prior cancer diagnosis, a personal or family history of chromosomal instability disorders, or a current history of smoking. Estimates of film-badge dose ranged from less than 10 cSv to more than 30 cSv. Blood samples, obtained in 2004, were analyzed by fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) whole chromosome painting by simultaneously labeling chromosomes 1, 2 and 4 in red and 3, 5 and 6 in green. Translocations were scored in 1800 well-spread metaphase cells and expressed per 100 cell equivalents (CE) per person. Linear Poisson regression models with allowance for overdispersion were used to assess the relationship between estimated occupational red bone marrow absorbed dose in cGy and translocation frequency, adjusted for age, gender and estimated red bone marrow absorbed dose score from personal diagnostic procedures. We observed 0.09 excess translocations per 100 CE per cGy red bone marrow dose (95% CI: −0.01, 0.2; P = 0.07), which is similar to the expected estimate based on previous cytogenetic studies (0.05 excess translocations per 100 CE per cGy). Despite uncertainty in the estimates of occupational red bone marrow absorbed doses, we found good general agreement between the doses and translocation frequencies, lending support to the credibility of the dose assessment for this large cohort of U.S. radiologic technologists.

Radiation Organ Doses Received in a Nationwide Cohort of U.S. Radiologic Technologists: Methods and Findings

In this article, we describe recent methodological enhancements and findings from the dose reconstruction component of a study of health risks among U.S. radiologic technologists. An earlier version of the dosimetry published in 2006 used physical and statistical models, literature-reported exposure measurements for the years before 1960, and archival personnel monitoring badge data from cohort members through 1984. The data and models previously described were used to estimate annual occupational radiation doses for 90,000 radiological technologists, incorporating information about each individuals employment practices based on a baseline survey conducted in the mid-1980s. The dosimetry methods presented here, while using many of the same methods as before, now estimate 2.23 million annual badge doses (personal dose equivalent) for the years 1916–1997 for 110,374 technologists, but with numerous methodological improvements. Every technologists annual dose is estimated as a probability density function to reflect uncertainty about the true dose. Multiple realizations of the entire cohort distribution were derived to account for shared uncertainties and possible biases in the input data and assumptions used. Major improvements in the dosimetry methods from the earlier version include: A substantial increase in the number of cohort member annual badge dose measurements; Additional information on individual apron usage obtained from surveys conducted in the mid-1990s and mid-2000s; Refined modeling to develop lognormal annual badge dose probability density functions using censored data regression models; Refinements of cohort-based annual badge probability density functions to reflect individual work patterns and practices reported on questionnaires and to more accurately assess minimum detection limits; and Extensive refinements in organ dose conversion coefficients to account for uncertainties in radiographic machine settings for the radiographic techniques employed. For organ dose estimation, we rely on well-researched assumptions about critical exposure-related variables and their changes over the decades, including the peak kilovoltage and filtration typically used in conducting radiographic examinations, and the usual body location for wearing radiation monitoring badges, the latter based on both literature and national recommendations. We have derived organ dose conversion coefficients based on air-kerma weighting of photon fluences from published X-ray spectra and derived energy-dependent transmission factors for protective lead aprons of different thicknesses. Findings are presented on estimated organ doses for 12 organs and tissues: red bone marrow, female breast, thyroid, brain, lung, heart, colon, ovary, testes, skin of trunk, skin of head and neck and arms, and lens of the eye.

Transfer of 131I into human breast milk and transfer coefficients for radiological dose assessments.

Data on transfer of radioiodine into human milk are rare in the literature. Data from sixteen publications were reviewed and analyzed to estimate the transfer coefficient (fhm*, having units of d L−1). The data on the radioiodine concentration in breast milk were analyzed by two methods: direct numerical integration and integration of a fitted exponential model. In general, the integrated fitted functions were greater. The fitted functions likely better describe the transfer into milk since few data sets sampled mothers’ milk near the time of maximum excretion. The derived transfer coefficient values seem to represent two populations. The first group was those individuals who had very low excretions, including those where thyroid and mammary uptake was impaired by the administration of stable iodine or iodinated compounds. The second group included those with much higher excretions. The second group, termed the “normal-excretion” group, had transfers of iodine to milk that were more than ten-fold higher than in the “low-excretion” group. The derived milk transfer coefficient data for the low- and normal-excretion groups fitted to lognormal distributions gave geometric means, (geometric standard deviations), of 0.043 d L−1 (2.1, n = 14) and 0.37 d L−1 (1.5, n = 12), respectively. Estimates of the effective half-time (time from maximum concentration to half the value) were determined for the low- and normal-excretion groups separately. There was evidence that the effective half-time was longer for the normal- than for the low-excretion group; the geometric mean (and geometric standard deviation) were 12 (1.7) and 8.5 (2.6) h, respectively, though the difference was not statistically significant. The geometric mean times to maximum milk concentration in the low- and normal-excretion groups were nearly identical, 9.4 (3.1) and 9.0 (1.6) h, respectively. The data show that administration of large doses of stable iodine (commonly used to block uptake of iodine into the thyroid) is also an effective means to block radioiodine transfer into milk. Thus, protecting the mother’s thyroid also protects the nursing infant. Despite inadequacies of available data describing the transfer of radioiodine to human milk within a healthy population of women, the values of fhm* provided here are believed to be the best available for use in radiological assessments. These values are particularly applicable to lactating women having normal diets and availability to stable iodine, as in the United States.

Acute and chronic intakes of fallout radionuclides by Marshallese from nuclear weapons testing at Bikini and Enewetak and related internal radiation doses.

Annual internal radiation doses resulting from both acute and chronic intakes of all important dose-contributing radionuclides occurring in fallout from nuclear weapons testing at Bikini and Enewetak from 1946 through 1958 have been estimated for the residents living on all atolls and separate reef islands of the Marshall Islands. Internal radiation absorbed doses to the tissues most at risk to cancer induction (red bone marrow, thyroid, stomach, and colon) have been estimated for representative persons of all population communities for all birth years from 1929 through 1968, and for all years of exposure from 1948 through 1970. The acute intake estimates rely on a model using, as its basis, historical urine bioassay data, for members of the Rongelap Island and Ailinginae communities as well as for Rongerik residents. The model also utilizes fallout times of arrival and radionuclide deposition densities estimated for all tests and all atolls. Acute intakes of 63 radionuclides were estimated for the populations of the 20 inhabited atolls and for the communities that were relocated during the testing years for reasons of safety and decontamination. The model used for chronic intake estimates is based on reported whole-body, urine, and blood counting data for residents of Utrik and Rongelap. Dose conversion coefficients relating intake to organ absorbed dose were developed using internationally accepted models but specifically tailored for intakes of particulate fallout by consideration of literature-based evidence to choose the most appropriate alimentary tract absorption fraction (f1) values. Dose estimates were much higher for the thyroid gland than for red marrow, stomach wall, or colon. The highest thyroid doses to adults were about 7,600 mGy for the people exposed on Rongelap; thyroid doses to adults were much lower, by a factor of 100 or more, for the people exposed on the populated atolls of Kwajalein and Majuro. The estimates of radionuclide intake and internal radiation dose to the Marshallese that are presented in this paper are the most complete available anywhere and were used to make projections of lifetime cancer risks to the exposed populations, which are presented in a companion paper in this volume.

Accounting for Shared and Unshared Dosimetric Uncertainties in the Dose Response for Ultrasound-Detected Thyroid Nodules after Exposure to Radioactive Fallout

Dosimetic uncertainties, particularly those that are shared among subgroups of a study population, can bias, distort or reduce the slope or significance of a dose response. Exposure estimates in studies of health risks from environmental radiation exposures are generally highly uncertain and thus, susceptible to these methodological limitations. An analysis was published in 2008 concerning radiation-related thyroid nodule prevalence in a study population of 2,994 villagers under the age of 21 years old between August 1949 and September 1962 and who lived downwind from the Semipalatinsk Nuclear Test Site in Kazakhstan. This dose-response analysis identified a statistically significant association between thyroid nodule prevalence and reconstructed doses of fallout-related internal and external radiation to the thyroid gland; however, the effects of dosimetric uncertainty were not evaluated since the doses were simple point “best estimates”. In this work, we revised the 2008 study by a comprehensive treatment of dosimetric uncertainties. Our present analysis improves upon the previous study, specifically by accounting for shared and unshared uncertainties in dose estimation and risk analysis, and differs from the 2008 analysis in the following ways: 1. The study population size was reduced from 2,994 to 2,376 subjects, removing 618 persons with uncertain residence histories; 2. Simulation of multiple population dose sets (vectors) was performed using a two-dimensional Monte Carlo dose estimation method; and 3. A Bayesian model averaging approach was employed for evaluating the dose response, explicitly accounting for large and complex uncertainty in dose estimation. The results were compared against conventional regression techniques. The Bayesian approach utilizes 5,000 independent realizations of population dose vectors, each of which corresponds to a set of conditional individual median internal and external doses for the 2,376 subjects. These 5,000 population dose vectors reflect uncertainties in dosimetric parameters, partly shared and partly independent, among individual members of the study population. Risk estimates for thyroid nodules from internal irradiation were higher than those published in 2008, which results, to the best of our knowledge, from explicitly accounting for dose uncertainty. In contrast to earlier findings, the use of Bayesian methods led to the conclusion that the biological effectiveness for internal and external dose was similar. Estimates of excess relative risk per unit dose (ERR/Gy) for males (177 thyroid nodule cases) were almost 30 times those for females (571 cases) and were similar to those reported for thyroid cancers related to childhood exposures to external and internal sources in other studies. For confirmed cases of papillary thyroid cancers (3 in males, 18 in females), the ERR/Gy was also comparable to risk estimates from other studies, but not significantly different from zero. These findings represent the first reported dose response for a radiation epidemiologic study considering all known sources of shared and unshared errors in dose estimation and using a Bayesian model averaging (BMA) method for analysis of the dose response.

Reconstruction of Absorbed Doses to Fibroglandular Tissue of the Breast of Women Undergoing Mammography (1960 to the Present)

The assessment of potential benefits versus harms from mammographic examinations as described in the controversial breast cancer screening recommendations of the U.S. Preventive Task Force included limited consideration of absorbed dose to the fibroglandular tissue of the breast (glandular tissue dose), the tissue at risk for breast cancer. Epidemiological studies on cancer risks associated with diagnostic radiological examinations often lack accurate information on glandular tissue dose, and there is a clear need for better estimates of these doses. Our objective was to develop a quantitative summary of glandular tissue doses from mammography by considering sources of variation over time in key parameters, including imaging protocols, X-ray target materials, voltage, filtration, incident air kerma, compressed breast thickness, and breast composition. We estimated the minimum, maximum and mean values for glandular tissue dose for populations of exposed women within 5-year periods from 1960 to the present, with the minimum to maximum range likely including 90% to 95% of the entirety of the dose range from mammography in North America and Europe. Glandular tissue dose from a single view in mammography is presently about 2 mGy, about one-sixth the dose in the 1960s. The ratio of our estimates of maximum to minimum glandular tissue doses for average-size breasts was about 100 in the 1960s compared to a ratio of about 5 in recent years. Findings from our analysis provide quantitative information on glandular tissue doses from mammographic examinations that can be used in epidemiological studies of breast cancer.