Robert Mulvaney

Eight glacial cycles from an Antarctic ice core

The Antarctic Vostok ice core provided compelling evidence of the nature of climate, and of climate feedbacks, over the past 420,000 years. Marine records suggest that the amplitude of climate variability was smaller before that time, but such records are often poorly resolved. Moreover, it is not possible to infer the abundance of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere from marine records. Here we report the recovery of a deep ice core from Dome C, Antarctica, that provides a climate record for the past 740,000 years. For the four most recent glacial cycles, the data agree well with the record from Vostok. The earlier period, between 740,000 and 430,000 years ago, was characterized by less pronounced warmth in interglacial periods in Antarctica, but a higher proportion of each cycle was spent in the warm mode. The transition from glacial to interglacial conditions about 430,000 years ago (Termination V) resembles the transition into the present interglacial period in terms of the magnitude of change in temperatures and greenhouse gases, but there are significant differences in the patterns of change. The interglacial stage following Termination V was exceptionally long—28,000 years compared to, for example, the 12,000 years recorded so far in the present interglacial period. Given the similarities between this earlier warm period and today, our results may imply that without human intervention, a climate similar to the present one would extend well into the future.The Antarctic Vostok ice core provided compelling evidence of the nature of climate, and of climate feedbacks, over the past 420,000 years. Marine records suggest that the amplitude of climate variability was smaller before that time, but such records are often poorly resolved. Moreover, it is not possible to infer the abundance of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere from marine records. Here we report the recovery of a deep ice core from Dome C, Antarctica, that provides a climate record for the past 740,000 years. For the four most recent glacial cycles, the data agree well with the record from Vostok. The earlier period, between 740,000 and 430,000 years ago, was characterized by less pronounced warmth in interglacial periods in Antarctica, but a higher proportion of each cycle was spent in the warm mode. The transition from glacial to interglacial conditions about 430,000 years ago (Termination V) resembles the transition into the present interglacial period in terms of the magnitude of change in temperatures and greenhouse gases, but there are significant differences in the patterns of change. The interglacial stage following Termination V was exceptionally long—28,000 years compared to, for example, the 12,000 years recorded so far in the present interglacial period. Given the similarities between this earlier warm period and today, our results may imply that without human intervention, a climate similar to the present one would extend well into the future.

One-to-one coupling of glacial climate variability in Greenland and Antarctica.

Precise knowledge of the phase relationship between climate changes in the two hemispheres is a key for understanding the Earth’s climate dynamics. For the last glacial period, ice core studies have revealed strong coupling of the largest millennial-scale warm events in Antarctica with the longest Dansgaard–Oeschger events in Greenland through the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. It has been unclear, however, whether the shorter Dansgaard–Oeschger events have counterparts in the shorter and less prominent Antarctic temperature variations, and whether these events are linked by the same mechanism. Here we present a glacial climate record derived from an ice core from Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica, which represents South Atlantic climate at a resolution comparable with the Greenland ice core records. After methane synchronization with an ice core from North Greenland, the oxygen isotope record from the Dronning Maud Land ice core shows a one-to-one coupling between all Antarctic warm events and Greenland Dansgaard–Oeschger events by the bipolar seesaw6. The amplitude of the Antarctic warm events is found to be linearly dependent on the duration of the concurrent stadial in the North, suggesting that they all result from a similar reduction in the meridional overturning circulation.

Recent rapid regional climate warming on the Antarctic Peninsula

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) confirmed that mean global warming was 0.6 ± 0.2 °C during the 20th century and cited anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gases as the likely cause of temperature rise in the last 50 years. But this mean value conceals the substantial complexity of observed climate change, which is seasonally- and diurnally-biased, decadally-variable and geographically patchy. In particular, over the last 50 years three high-latitude areas have undergone recent rapid regional (RRR) warming, which was substantially more rapid than the global mean. However, each RRR warming occupies a different climatic regime and may have an entirely different underlying cause. We discuss the significance of RRR warming in one area, the Antarctic Peninsula. Here warming was much more rapid than in the rest of Antarctica where it was not significantly different to the global mean. We highlight climate proxies that appear to show that RRR warming on the Antarctic Peninsula is unprecedented over the last two millennia, and so unlikely to be a natural mode of variability. So while the station records do not indicate a ubiquitous polar amplification of global warming, the RRR warming on the Antarctic Peninsula might be a regional amplification of such warming. This, however, remains unproven since we cannot yet be sure what mechanism leads to such an amplification. We discuss several possible candidate mechanisms: changing oceanographic or changing atmospheric circulation, or a regional air-sea-ice feedback amplifying greenhouse warming. We can show that atmospheric warming and reduction in sea-ice duration coincide in a small area on the west of the Antarctic Peninsula, but here we cannot yet distinguish cause and effect. Thus for the present we cannot determine which process is the probable cause of RRR warming on the Antarctic Peninsula and until the mechanism initiating and sustaining the RRR warming is understood, and is convincingly reproduced in climate models, we lack a sound basis for predicting climate change in this region over the coming century.

Southern Ocean sea-ice extent, productivity and iron flux over the past eight glacial cycles

Sea ice and dust flux increased greatly in the Southern Ocean during the last glacial period. Palaeorecords provide contradictory evidence about marine productivity in this region, but beyond one glacial cycle, data were sparse. Here we present continuous chemical proxy data spanning the last eight glacial cycles (740,000 years) from the Dome C Antarctic ice core. These data constrain winter sea-ice extent in the Indian Ocean, Southern Ocean biogenic productivity and Patagonian climatic conditions. We found that maximum sea-ice extent is closely tied to Antarctic temperature on multi-millennial timescales, but less so on shorter timescales. Biological dimethylsulphide emissions south of the polar front seem to have changed little with climate, suggesting that sulphur compounds were not active in climate regulation. We observe large glacial–interglacial contrasts in iron deposition, which we infer reflects strongly changing Patagonian conditions. During glacial terminations, changes in Patagonia apparently preceded sea-ice reduction, indicating that multiple mechanisms may be responsible for different phases of CO2 increase during glacial terminations. We observe no changes in internal climatic feedbacks that could have caused the change in amplitude of Antarctic temperature variations observed 440,000 years ago.Sea ice and dust flux increased greatly in the Southern Ocean during the last glacial period. Palaeorecords provide contradictory evidence about marine productivity in this region, but beyond one glacial cycle, data were sparse. Here we present continuous chemical proxy data spanning the last eight glacial cycles (740,000 years) from the Dome C Antarctic ice core. These data constrain winter sea-ice extent in the Indian Ocean, Southern Ocean biogenic productivity and Patagonian climatic conditions. We found that maximum sea-ice extent is closely tied to Antarctic temperature on multi-millennial timescales, but less so on shorter timescales. Biological dimethylsulphide emissions south of the polar front seem to have changed little with climate, suggesting that sulphur compounds were not active in climate regulation. We observe large glacial–interglacial contrasts in iron deposition, which we infer reflects strongly changing Patagonian conditions. During glacial terminations, changes in Patagonia apparently preceded sea-ice reduction, indicating that multiple mechanisms may be responsible for different phases of CO2 increase during glacial terminations. We observe no changes in internal climatic feedbacks that could have caused the change in amplitude of Antarctic temperature variations observed 440,000 years ago.Its a long story...At over 3 km long, the ice core drilled at Dome C in Antarctica represents a record of 740,000 years, or eight glacial cycles. This will be the longest climate record available for years to come, so information gleaned from it will become a benchmark for Antarctic climate research. An examination of the core shows that sea ice around Antarctica waxed and waned in line with temperature over multimillennial timescales, but less so over shorter periods. During cold periods, larger amounts of dust were produced from a drier Patagonia, landing in the Southern Ocean where they probably affected marine productivity. Oceanic production of sulphur compounds, which might affect cloud nucleation, was remarkably constant throughout the period.Data from the Southern Ocean sea-ice extent, the biological productivity of the ocean, and atmospheric iron flux over the past eight glacial cycles indicate that during glacial terminations, changes in Patagonia apparently preceded Antarctic sea-ice reduction — showing that multiple mechanisms may be responsible for different phases of CO2 increase during glacial terminations.

Timing and climate forcing of volcanic eruptions for the past 2,500 years

Volcanic eruptions contribute to climate variability, but quantifying these contributions has been limited by inconsistencies in the timing of atmospheric volcanic aerosol loading determined from ice cores and subsequent cooling from climate proxies such as tree rings. Here we resolve these inconsistencies and show that large eruptions in the tropics and high latitudes were primary drivers of interannual-to-decadal temperature variability in the Northern Hemisphere during the past 2,500 years. Our results are based on new records of atmospheric aerosol loading developed from high-resolution, multi-parameter measurements from an array of Greenland and Antarctic ice cores as well as distinctive age markers to constrain chronologies. Overall, cooling was proportional to the magnitude of volcanic forcing and persisted for up to ten years after some of the largest eruptive episodes. Our revised timescale more firmly implicates volcanic eruptions as catalysts in the major sixth-century pandemics, famines, and socioeconomic disruptions in Eurasia and Mesoamerica while allowing multi-millennium quantification of climate response to volcanic forcing.

Recent Antarctic Peninsula warming relative to Holocene climate and ice-shelf history

Rapid warming over the past 50 years on the Antarctic Peninsula is associated with the collapse of a number of ice shelves and accelerating glacier mass loss. In contrast, warming has been comparatively modest over West Antarctica and significant changes have not been observed over most of East Antarctica, suggesting that the ice-core palaeoclimate records available from these areas may not be representative of the climate history of the Antarctic Peninsula. Here we show that the Antarctic Peninsula experienced an early-Holocene warm period followed by stable temperatures, from about 9,200 to 2,500 years ago, that were similar to modern-day levels. Our temperature estimates are based on an ice-core record of deuterium variations from James Ross Island, off the northeastern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula. We find that the late-Holocene development of ice shelves near James Ross Island was coincident with pronounced cooling from 2,500 to 600 years ago. This cooling was part of a millennial-scale climate excursion with opposing anomalies on the eastern and western sides of the Antarctic Peninsula. Although warming of the northeastern Antarctic Peninsula began around 600 years ago, the high rate of warming over the past century is unusual (but not unprecedented) in the context of natural climate variability over the past two millennia. The connection shown here between past temperature and ice-shelf stability suggests that warming for several centuries rendered ice shelves on the northeastern Antarctic Peninsula vulnerable to collapse. Continued warming to temperatures that now exceed the stable conditions of most of the Holocene epoch is likely to cause ice-shelf instability to encroach farther southward along the Antarctic Peninsula.

Absence of 21st century warming on Antarctic Peninsula consistent with natural variability.

Since the 1950s, research stations on the Antarctic Peninsula have recorded some of the largest increases in near-surface air temperature in the Southern Hemisphere. This warming has contributed to the regional retreat of glaciers, disintegration of floating ice shelves and a ‘greening’ through the expansion in range of various flora. Several interlinked processes have been suggested as contributing to the warming, including stratospheric ozone depletion, local sea-ice loss, an increase in westerly winds, and changes in the strength and location of low–high-latitude atmospheric teleconnections. Here we use a stacked temperature record to show an absence of regional warming since the late 1990s. The annual mean temperature has decreased at a statistically significant rate, with the most rapid cooling during the Austral summer. Temperatures have decreased as a consequence of a greater frequency of cold, east-to-southeasterly winds, resulting from more cyclonic conditions in the northern Weddell Sea associated with a strengthening mid-latitude jet. These circulation changes have also increased the advection of sea ice towards the east coast of the peninsula, amplifying their effects. Our findings cover only 1% of the Antarctic continent and emphasize that decadal temperature changes in this region are not primarily associated with the drivers of global temperature change but, rather, reflect the extreme natural internal variability of the regional atmospheric circulation.

Dust and sea salt variability in central East Antarctica (Dome C) over the last 45 kyrs and its implications for southern high-latitude climate

A detailed record of non-sea-salt calcium, a proxy for dust, and sea-salt sodium, a proxy for sea salt, covering the last 45 kyr is presented. It shows that in the first part of the transition from the last glacial period to the Holocene (18-15 kyr BP), the changes in dust flux mainly reflect changes at the dust source, namely vegetation cover and local climate. The changes in the later part of the transition (12-11 kyr BP) are similar in extent to the changes seen in sea salt and most likely reflect a reorganization of the atmospheric circulation. During the last glacial period, considerable variation of dust but not of sea salt is observed, pointing to climatic changes in Patagonia, the main dust source for Dome C. A comparison of the glacial records from Dome C and Taylor Dome suggests that similar influences controlled aerosol input at both sites during this period.

A new bipolar ice core record of volcanism from WAIS Divide and NEEM and implications for climate forcing of the last 2000 years

Volcanism is a natural climate forcing causing short-term variations in temperatures. Histories of volcanic eruptions are needed to quantify their role in climate variability and assess human impacts. We present two new seasonally resolved, annually dated non-sea-salt sulfur records from polar ice cores - WAIS Divide (WDC06A) from West Antarctica spanning 408 B.C.E. to 2003 C.E. and NEEM (NEEM-2011-S1) from Greenland spanning 78 to 1997 C.E. - both analyzed using high-resolution continuous flow analysis coupled to two mass spectrometers. The high dating accuracy allowed placing the large bi-hemispheric deposition event ascribed to the eruption of Kuwae in Vanuatu (previously thought to be 1452/1453 C.E. and used as a tie-point in ice core dating) into the year 1458/1459 C.E. This new age is consistent with an independent ice core timescale from Law Dome and explains an apparent delayed response in tree rings to this volcanic event. A second volcanic event is detected in 1453 C.E. in both ice cores. We show for the first time ice core signals in Greenland and Antarctica from the strong eruption of Taupo in New Zealand in 232 C.E. In total, 133 volcanic events were extracted from WDC06A and 138 from NEEM-2011-S1, with 50 ice core signals - predominantly from tropical source volcanoes - identified simultaneously in both records. We assess the effect of large bipolar events on temperature-sensitive tree ring proxies. These two new volcanic records, synchronized with available ice core records to account for spatial variability in sulfate deposition, provide a basis for improving existing time series of volcanic forcing.

Factors controlling nitrate in ice cores : Evidence from the Dome C deep ice core

In order to estimate past changes in atmospheric NOx concentration, nitrate, an oxidation product of NOx, has often been measured in polar ice cores. In the frame of the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica (EPICA), a high-resolution nitrate record was obtained by continuous flow analysis (CFA) of a new deep ice core drilled at Dome C. This record allows a detailed comparison of nitrate with other chemical trace substances in polar snow under different climatic regimes. Previous studies showed that it would be difficult to make firm conclusions about atmospheric NOx concentrations based on ice core nitrate without a better understanding of the factors controlling NO3− deposition and preservation. At Dome C, initially high nitrate concentrations (over 500 ppb) decrease within the top meter to steady low values around 15 ppb that are maintained throughout the Holocene ice. Much higher concentrations (averaging 53 ppb) are found in ice from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Combining this information with data from previous sampling elsewhere in Antarctica, it seems that under climatic conditions of the Holocene, temperature and accumulation rate are the key factors determining the NO3− concentration in the ice. Furthermore, ice layers with high acidity show a depletion of NO3−, but higher concentrations are found before and after the acidity layer, indicating that NO3− has been redistributed after deposition. Under glacial conditions, where NO3− shows a higher concentration level and also a larger variability, non-sea-salt calcium seems to act as a stabilizer, preventing volatilization of NO3− from the surface snow layers.