Robert P. Trost

Estimation of Short-Run and Long-Run Elasticities of Energy Demand From Panel Data Using Shrinkage Estimators

This paper discusses the problem of obtaining short-run and long-run elasticities of energy demand for each of forty-nine states in the United States using data for twenty-one years. Estimation using the time-series data by each state gave several wrong signs for the coefficients. Estimation using pooled data was not valid because the hypothesis of homogeneity of the coefficients was rejected. Shrinkage estimators gave more reasonable results. The paper presents, in a unified framework, the classical, empirical Bayes, and Bayes approaches for deriving these estimators. Coauthors are Robert P. Trost, Hongyi Li, and Frederick Joutz.

Bias in estimates of discrimination and default in mortgage lending: the effects of simultaneity and self-selection

The common practices of estimating single-equation models of mortgage rejection to test for discrimination in mortgage markets or single-equation ex ante mortgage default equations to validate underwriting criteria produce biased and inconsistent parameter estimates. This is due to problems of simultaneous equations bias which arise because, in a world of imperfect information, mortgage terms are not exogenous to the rejection or default decision. In addition, mortgage default estimates are also subject to selection bias. Monte Carlo experiments are used to study the nature and extent of likely bias in single-equation estimation results. We find that rejection equation estimates indicate discrimination when none exists and that estimated coefficients of mortgage terms, such as the loan-to-value ratio, are also subject to significant bias in both rejection and default equations.

The Response of State Government Receipts to Economic Fluctuations and the Allocation of Counter-Cyclical Revenue Sharing Grants

Abstract : This paper estimates the responsiveness of receipts of 49 state governments to fluctuations in economic activity. The concluding sections uses these estimates to evaluate the allocation of counter-cyclical revenue sharing grants among states and makes some suggestions for improvements in the allocating formula.... Allocations, Cycles, Econometrics, Economics, Grants, Local government, State government, Revenue sharing, Unemployment.

Statistical Analysis of Hearing Loss among Navy Personnel

Hearing loss is one of the most common disabilities among sailors. Service members are posted to a variety of stations. Many of these posts have high noise levels, and particular ratings have high exposure. If assignments of higher risk can be identified, then focused prevention programs can be implemented. The focus of this study was to determine how hearing loss relates to service time spent aboard ships. To investigate which duty stations and ratings are at high risk for hearing loss, this study looked at medical hearing test records for nearly 268,000 enlisted sailors over the period of 1979 to 2004. Using both logistic and logarithmic binomial analyses, the study found that enlisted sailors who spent one-half of a 30-year Navy career assigned to a surface warship had a 13-percentage point higher probability of leaving the service with a reduction in the ability to hear, compared with someone who spent his or her whole career in a shore billet. If the same sailor spent two-thirds of his or her 30-year Navy career assigned to a surface warship, then the probability of hearing loss at the end of his or her career would increase by another 5 percentage points.

Modeling and forecasting U.S. Patent application filings

Abstract The U.S. Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) is faced with the task of estimating levels of demand for its products and services both in the short run and the long run. For this reason, tracking historical levels as well as estimating future levels of patent applications is an ongoing activity of considerable significance. The need for reliable forecasts of patent application filings has been accentuated by the recent funding changes affecting the USPTO. Following enactment of the Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1990, the USPTO underwent a transition to a fully fee-funded environment. In addition, the international patent community (including the European Patent and Japanese Patent Offices) has been trying to coordinate efforts to better serve its global clientele. Predicting these trends and growth areas will permit these offices to plan appropriately. As part of this effort, the USPTO constructed annual and quarterly models of U.S. patent application filings. The forecasting capability of naive, ARIMA, and econometric models are compared.

TIRED TITANIUM: A FATIGUE‐BASED APPROACH TO AIRCRAFT INVENTORY MANAGEMENT AND ACQUISITION PLANNING

Airframe fatigue has emerged as a primary determinant of tactical aircraft service life. To investigate the impact of various operational scenarios on airframe fatigue and aircraft stocks, we develop an econometric model of fatigue and arrest landing accumulation for US Naval aircraft. Model forecasts suggest that fatigue‐related attrition threatens to reduce inventories below the level needed to meet operational commitments before planned replacements are available. Changes to training regimes could mitigate the shortfall, but it is likely that acquisition schedules will have to be accelerated, or current service life extension programs expanded to maintain inventories in the future. 1This research was conducted while Chad Meyerhoefer was an economist at The CNA Corporation and Robert Trost was at The CNA Corporation while on Summer Break from The George Washington University (GWU). No official endorsement by the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality or the Department of Health and Human Services, by The CNA Corporation, or by GWU is intended or should be inferred. Programming assistance by Kletus Lawler and Geoffrey Shaw is greatly appreciated.

Bidding behavior in the department of defense's commercial activities competitions

From 1978 to 1994, the Department of Defense conducted more than 2,000 competitions in which private contractors and the governments in-house team bid to provide a service performed in-house before the competition. A three-equation model is constructed, which is used to estimate the in-house bid, the minimum contractor bid, and the in-house teams baseline cost. The model accounts for the fact that the in-house bid is constrained not to exceed its baseline cost. The estimates are used in simulations of the savings from the completed competitions (

Using stochastic simulation to test the effect of seasonal adjustment on forecast standard errors of motor gasoline demand

1.55 billion annually, 35 percent of the baseline cost) as well as the savings from various alternative policies, including competitively tendering all the functions on the Department of Defenses list of potential candidates (

Technical Training and Earnings: A Polychotomous Choice Model with Selectivity

7.58 billion annually).

Does employer-financed general training pay? Evidence from the US Navy

Abstract Most government agencies and private forecasting firms using large econometric models construct ad hoc confidence intervals with a base case forecast followed by a high and low case forecast. These do not provide a true measure of confidence in the predictions; rather, they represent different states of the world. Forecast standard errors represent a way of incorporating uncertainty into forecasts. In the complicated models the theoretical forecast standard errors are not easily computed. In our paper we estimate forecast standard errors using stochastic simulation and are able to inflate the standard errors if model misspecification is suspected. We compare the results using different seasonal adjustment filtering techniques on econometric models and time series models.