Robert Pollin

Globalization and Progressive Economic Policy

The authors of this book challenge mainstream thinking about the nature of globalization. While not hostile to markets per se, they believe that capitalist market processes, left to operate freely, tend to generate injustice, insecurity, instability, and inefficiency. Taking account of the new realities of globalization, this volume explores an unusually wide range of subjects, including trade integration, multinational corporations, labor markets and migration, international capital flows, macroeconomic and environmental policy, and the central roles of the IMF and World Bank. It proposes alternatives to neo-liberal orthodoxy, developing policy measures that counter the destructive features of markets and promote equality as well as efficiency. The approach in this volume is particularly illuminating for understanding the Asian financial collapse of 1997–98 and similar recent crises. The volume also includes comments on each chapter by a wide range of distinguished economists, producing a lively and often controversial set of interchanges.

Inflation and economic growth: a cross-country nonlinear analysis

This paper presents new nonlinear regression estimates of the relationship between inflation and economic growth for 80 countries over the 1961- 2000 period, using middle-income and low-income countries. We also consider the four separate decades between 1961 and 2000. The paper consistently finds that higher inflation is associated with moderate gains in gross domestic product growth up to a roughly 15-18 percent inflation threshold. However, the findings diverge when we divide our full data set according to income levels. With the groupings by decade, the results indicate that inflation and growth will be more highly correlated to the degree that macroeconomic policy is focused on demand management as a stimulus to growth. We consider the implications of these findings for the conduct of monetary policy. One conclusion is that there is no justification for inflation-targeting policies as they are currently being practiced throughout the middle- and low-income countries, that is, to maintain inflation with a 3-5 percent band.

An employment-targeted economic program for South Africa

This report outlines a pro-poor, employment-focused economic policy framework for South Africa. Its specific focus is the severe problem of mass unemployment in South Africa today. Unemployment was between 26.5 and 40.5 per cent as of March 2005, depending on whether one uses the ‘official’ or ‘expanded’ definition of unemployment (with the expanded definition including so-called discouraged workers). The paper’s concentration on the problem of mass unemployment is fully consistent with the stated goals of the current African National Congress (ANC) government. At the Growth and Development Summit in 2003, President Thabo Mbeki singled out ‘more jobs, better jobs, and decent work for all’ as one of the country’s four key economic challenges. Currently, the preliminary presentations of the Government’s new economic policy framework, the ‘Accelerated and Shared Growth Initiative for South Africa (ASGISA)’, indicate that it affirms its commitment to cutting the unemployment rate by half by 2014.

Global Apparel Production and Sweatshop Labor: Can Raising Retail Prices Finance Living Wages?

This paper provides some empirical evidence on issues raised by the global antisweatshop movement. We first consider the relationship between wage and employment growth, finding no consistent trade-off between them. We then measure the share of labour costs in the production of garments in the US and Mexico. We find that the retail price increases necessary to absorb the costs of raising wages substantially are small, well within the range of price increases that polls suggest US consumers are willing to pay. We close by considering some implications of these results. Copyright 2004, Oxford University Press.

Securities Transaction Taxes for U.S. Financial Markets

This paper examines the viability of security transaction excise taxes (STETs) as one policy tool for promoting a more stable financial environment, specifically with respect to the U.S. economy. Contrary to a large recent critical literature, we show that a STET can be designed without creating large distortions between segments of the financial market. We also show that a modest STET for the U.S.—beginning with a 0.5 percent tax on equity trades and scaled appropriately for other financial instruments—would generate substantial new government revenues, on the order of

Stock Market Liquidity and Economic Growth: A Critical Appraisal of the Levine/Zervos Model

100 billion per year.

Inflation and Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Non-Linear Analysis

Levine & Zervos (1998) presented cross-country econometric evidence showing that, in a sample of 47 countries, stock market liquidity contributed a significant positive influence on GDP growth between 1976-93. We show that the Levine-Zervos results are not robust to alternative specifications because of the incomplete manner in which they control for outliers in their data. We show that when one properly controls for outliers, stock market liquidity no longer exerts any statistically observable influence on GDP growth.

Informalization, Economic Growth and the Challenge of Creating Viable Labor Standards in Developing Countries

This paper presents new non-linear regression estimates of the relationship between inflation and economic growth for 80 countries over the period 1961 – 2000. We perform tests using the full sample of countries as well as sub-samples consisting of OECD countries, middle-income countries, and low-income countries. We also consider the full sample of countries within the four separate decades between 1961 – 2000. Considering our full data set we consistently find that higher inflation is associated with moderate gains in GDP growth up to a roughly 15 – 18 percent inflation threshold. However, the findings diverge when we divide our full data set according to income levels. With the OECD countries, no clear pattern emerges at all with either the inflation coefficient or our estimated turning point. With the middle income countries, we return to a consistently positive pattern of inflation coefficients, though none are statistically significant. The turning points range within a narrow band in this sample, between 14 – 16 percent. With the low income countries, we obtain positive and higher coefficient values on the inflation coefficient than with the middle-income countries. With the groupings by decade, the results indicate that inflation and growth will be more highly correlated to the degree that macroeconomic policy is focused on demand management as a stimulus to growth. We consider the implications of these findings for the conduct of monetary policy. One is that there is no justification for inflation-targeting policies as they are currently being practiced throughout the middle- and low-income countries, that is, to maintain inflation with a 3 – 5 percent band.

The growth of U.S. household debt: Demand-side influences☆

Over recent decades, there has been the substantial rise in the proportion of people engaged in what is termed informal employment, generating a broad trend toward “informalization” of labor market conditions in developing countries, even when economic growth is proceeding. We consider the relationship between the rise of informalization and the corresponding ascendancy of neoliberal policies in developing countries, focusing in particular on how the decline in average per capita GDP growth associated with neoliberalism has fostered informalization. We then explore policy measures for raising the proportion of decent jobs with core social protections in developing countries—which means, as we argue, reversing the process of informalization. We examine policy measures in two areas: raising the rate of economic growth and improving the regulation of labor markets.

Measuring the Impact of Living Wage Laws: A Critical Appraisal of David Neumark's How Living Wage Laws Affect Low-Wage Workers and Low-Income Families

Abstract The ratio of household debt to income has been rising steadily since 1974. Working from an accounting framework developed by Enthoven, this paper shows that underlying the rise of household debt to income is a corresponding increase in the net borrowing to income ratio. Four demand-side factors are considered to explain the rise of net borrowing to income: increasingly sanguine attitudes toward debt, demographic changes, variations in the real cost of credit and real asset yields, and increased necessitous borrowing linked to declining median incomes and rising housing costs. Regression results show that the primary observed causes of the increasing net borrowing to income ratio are variations in credit costs and yields and increased necessitous demand for credit.