Robert Q. Hanham

Shift-Share Analysis and Changes in Japanese Manufacturing Employment

Shift-share analysis is used to examine the role of spatial structure on changes in regional manufacturing employment, in contrast to the traditional focus of shift-share studies on the role of industrial structure. It is argued that changes in a regions space-economy can be understood not only in terms of the economic subdivisions of the region but also in terms of the contribution of its spatial subdivisions. The latter is illustrated by means of a case study of the contribution of different types of local area to changes in regional manufacturing employment in Japan. Each region was subdivided into four types of local area based on population density. The analysis covered the period from 1981 to 1995, a time of major transformation in Japans space-economy. The shift-share model was also used to estimate the impact of local area output and productivity on changes in regional employment. In general, the results show that there was a progressive underdevelopment of the core regions, associated with falling output and productivity. The countrys peripheral regions were characterized by development, associated with rising output and productivity. Atthe local scale, however, the picture is far more complex. Types of local area contributed to regional employment change in very different ways, with respect to both time, region, and output/productivity. The contribution of local spatial structure to the regional space-economy of Japan is fundamentally fragmented and uneven. Copyright 2000 Gatton College of Business and Economics, University of Kentucky.

Urban Sprawl Detection Using Satellite Imagery and Geographically Weighted Regression

Urban sprawl is a contentious public policy issue in the United States today. For those people who move into the outer fringes of metropolitan areas it may be seen as an opportunity to buy a bigger home in a much less heavily urbanized place, where the quality of life is thought to be better and taxes may be lower. Local governments, businesses, and property developers in these areas can benefit from increased tax revenues, the growing demand for private services and the need for new housing. On the other hand, public services may be stretched thin, farmland lost, the local environment degraded and conflict can arise between the interests of newcomers and locals. For governments in the metropolitan areas from where these people moved, the consequences can be lost tax revenue, increased pressure on transportation services and infrastructure and diminished support for local businesses.

Deviance Residual Moran's I Test and Its Application to Spatial Clusters of Small Manufacturing Firms in Japan

It is proposed that when data exhibit local clusters, a logit local association model coupled with deviance residual Morans I can be an alternative to the global Poisson autoregressive model because the former can explicitly reveal local clusters and remove residual clustering. Because small firms in Japan traditionally exhibit local clusters, they are a good illustration. In this article, the authors introduce the deviance residual Morans I to capture local cluster tendencies in a set of logit models and then evaluate their performance by simulation and case study. Results show that IDR can effectively serve as a global measure of a clustering tendency for logit models and can complement other autoregressive logistic regressions for local cluster modeling when a significant IDR is contributed by local clusters. In addition, ecological covariates identified in the previous literature were sufficient to account for the spatial clustering of small firms in 1990 but not in 2000.

TWO VIEWS OF THE CITY AS A SOURCE OF SPACE-TIME TRENDS IN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND THE DECLINE OF HUMAN FERTILITY

The relationship between the spread of economic development and the spread in the decline of human fertility within a regional setting is examined. A two-equation recursive model is developed by means of Casettis expansion method. The model is evaluated using county data for Oklahoma over the period 1940-1972. Two alternative indicators of economic development are used in the model , the proportion of the labor force employed in agriculture and per capita retail sales, to capture the effects of changes in production and consumption upon fertility. The results indicate that changes in agricultural employment have neither diffused nor become more polarized, but that retail sales became more polarized with respect to major urban centers during the period. The decline in fertility resulted largely from changes in economic development, which was a polarizing influence on the former. There was also, however, an independent spread effect upon the decline of fertility, giving rise to a situation in which major u...

Regional change and problem drinking in the United States, 1970–1978

Smith C. J. and Hanham R. Q. (1984) Regional change and problem drinking in the United States, 1970–1978, Reg. Studies 19, 149–162. In the 1970s significant regional change occurred in the United States in connection with the distribution of population, employment, and income. Some external costs have results from these regional changes, as different areas have experienced varying economic and demographic fortunes. In this paper we investigate one such cost—the effect of alcohol abuse on human health. Our analysis suggests that both regional growth and decline in the United States during the 1970s can be related directly to the prevalence of alcohol-induced health problems. It is also apparent that economic and demographic changes have had an indirect influence on the prevalence of alcohol problems by altering the geographical pattern of drinking in the United States.

What drives people to drink? Interpreting the effect of urban living on the use and abuse of alcohol

Abstract Drinking has become a serious problem for as many as 15 million Americans. Previous research on this subject has shown that urban living is often strongly correlated with problem drinking, although the underlying causes are not well understood. This paper attempts to shed some light on these causes by identifying factors that are associated with a variety of indices of problem drinking. These relationships are examined in the context of four alternative models of alcohol use and abuse: these are a ‘blaming the victim model’; a ‘social opportunities model’; a ‘cultural integration model’; and a ‘distribution of consumption model’. The models are estimated using county-level data from Oklahoma for 1970, and the results indicate that although urban living is related to problem drinking, the case for the urban variable has probably been over-stated.

The Spatially Varying Relationship Between Local Land-Use Policies and Urban Growth: A GeographicallyWeighted Regression Analysis

This chapter examines the geography of urban growth and public policy. The chapter uses geographically weighted regression to investigate observed urbanization and sprawl across southwest Pennsylvania. Using Landsat data, the chapter focuses on observed land use change and the relationship, if any, between change and land use policy. This research shows that the spatial fragmentation of local land-use policy has a variable impact on observed land-use from non-forested open space to an urban built environment.

Changing Energy Prices and State Revenue

There has been much discussion in recent years about the relationship between changing energy prices and state economic development. The affect of rising energy prices on shifts of income, employment and firms from energy deficit to energy surplus states has been debated in the literature. This chapter focuses upon state revenue changes among energy surplus and deficit states over the period 1967–80. It is found that revenues are sensitive to the type of fuel which comprises a state’s energy balance.