Robert R. Golden

Detection of dementia and depression cases with the Comprehensive Assessment and Referral Evaluation interview schedule.

The objective of this research was to develop two indicator-scales for detection of dementia and detection of depression for individuals aged sixty-five or over who are living in the community. Data were collected in two large surveys in London and New York City using a semistructured interview technique, the Comprehensive Assessment and Referral Evaluation. Each of the two indicator-scales were developed so as to meet criteria regarding content and construct validity and internal consistency reliability such as is required in geriatric epidemiological research. The advantage of simultaneously using both indicator-scales in the detection of dementia and depression cases and in the differential diagnosis of dementia and depression is demonstrated.

The relationship of long term global temperature change and human fertility

UNLABELLED According to the United Nations, global fertility has declined in the last century as reflected by a decline in birth rates. The earths surface air temperature has increased considerably and is referred to as global warming. Since changes in temperature are well known to influence fertility we sought to determine if a statistical relationship exists between long-term changes in global air temperatures and birth rates. The most complete and reliable birth rate data in the 20th century was available in 19 industrialized countries. Using bivariate and multiple regression analysis, we compared yearly birth rates from these countries to global air temperatures from 1900 to 1994.A common pattern of change in birth rates was noted for the 19 industrialized countries studied. In general, birth rates declined markedly throughout the century except during the baby boom period of approximately 1940 to 1964. An inverse relationship was found between changes in global temperatures and birth rates in all 19 countries. Controlling for the linear yearly decline in birth rates over time, this relationship remained statistically significant for all the 19 countries in aggregate and in seven countries individually (p<0.05). CONCLUSIONS The results of our analyses are consistent with the underlying premise that temperature change affects fertility and suggests that human fertility may have been influenced by change in environmental temperatures.