Robert S. Yeats

Patterns of Historical Earthquake Rupture in the Iranian Plateau

The Iranian plateau accommodates the 35 mrn/yr convergence rate be- tween the Eurasian and Arabian plates by strike-slip and reverse faults with relatively low slip rates in a zone 1000 km across. Although these faults have only locally been the subject of paleoseismological studies, a rich historical and archeological record spans several thousand years, long enough to establish recurrence intervals of 1000 to 5000 yr on individual fault segments. Several clusters of earthquakes provide evidence of interaction among reverse and strike-slip faults, probably due to adjacent faults being loaded by individual earthquakes. The Dasht-e-Bayaz sequence of 1936 to 1997 includes earthquakes on left-lateral, right-lateral, and reverse faults. The Neyshabur sequence of four earthquakes between 1209 and 1405 respected the seg- ment boundary between the Neyshabur and Binalud reverse fault systems. The two pairs of earthquakes may have ruptured different faults in each segment, similar to the 1971 and 1994 San Fernando, California, earthquakes. The 1978 Tabas reverse- fault earthquake was preceded by the 1968 Ferdows earthquake, part of the Dasht- e-Bayaz sequence. The North Tabriz fault system ruptured from southeast to north- west in three earthquakes from 1721 to 1786; a previous cluster may have struck this region in 855 to 958. The Mosha fault north of Tehran ruptured in three earthquakes in 958, 1665, and 1830. Five large earthquakes struck the Tehran region from 743 to 1177, but only two that large have struck the area since 1177. Other earthquakes occurred in pairs in the Talesh Mountains near the Caspian Sea (1863, 1896), the Iran-Turkey border (1840, 1843), and the Nayband-Gowk fault system (both 1981). Other historical events did not occur as parts of sequences. The historic seismic moment release in Iran accounts for only a small part of the plate convergence rate, which may be due to aseismic slip or to the Iranian historical record, long as it is, being too short to sample long-term deformation across the plateau. No historic earthquakes of M --> 8 have struck Iran. However, several long, straight strike-slip faults (Doruneh, West Neh, East Neh, and Nayband) have not sustained large historical earthquakes, raising the possibility that these long faults could produce earthquakes of M => 8, thereby removing at least part of the apparent slip deficit. An increased understanding of Irans seismic hazard could be obtained by an extensive paleoseismology program and space-geodetic arrays, supplementing the abundant historical and archaeological record.

STRUCTURE AND SHORTENING OF THE KANGRA AND DEHRA DUN REENTRANTS, SUB-HIMALAYA, INDIA

Surface geology, oil-well, seismic-reflection, and magnetostratigraphic data are integrated to evaluate the structural style and the shortening rate at the Himalayan front (Sub-Himalaya) of northwest India. The Sub-Himalaya, between the Main Boundary thrust and the Himalayan Frontal fault, is the primary surface expression of shortening between the Himalaya and the Indian plate. At certain locations, the Himalayan Frontal fault is a blind thrust beneath anticlines of Siwalik (Tertiary) molasse, parallel to the Himalayan orogen. The Main Boundary thrust is sinuous, so the width of the Sub-Himalaya ranges from 30 to 80 km. Where the Sub-Himalaya is narrow (Nahan salient), Tertiary rocks are exposed in imbricate thrust sheets; where the Sub-Himalaya is broad (Kangra and Dehra Dun reentrants), alluvium fills wide synclinal valleys (duns). Seismic-reflection data reveal that surface anticlines form in association with south-vergent thrusts that root in a decollement at the base of the Tertiary section. Reflection profiles and well data also indicate that the basement lithology changes northward from Precambrian crystalline rocks beneath the Indo-Gangetic plains to Precambrian and Cambrian metasedimentary rocks beneath the Sub-Himalaya. The Sub-Himalayan decollement dips 2.5° northward beneath the Kangra reentrant, but it is steeper, 6°, beneath the Dehra Dun reentrant. The Kangra and Dehra Dun reentrants display fault-propagation folds having steep limbs in the north, and fault-propagation and fault-bend folds that have gently north-dipping limbs in the south. A balanced cross section of the Kangra reentrant shows that a minimum of 23 km shortening has occurred since 1.9–1.5 Ma, yielding a shortening rate of 14 ± 2 mm/yr. Shortening has occurred at a rate of 6–16 mm/yr across the Dehra Dun reentrant. These data are similar to other published shortening rates and indicate that approximately 25% of the total India-Eurasia convergence at this longitude is accommodated within the Sub-Himalaya. Given continued convergence and the presence of overpressured wells in the Kangra reentrant, the region is likely at risk from moderate and/or great earthquakes in the future.

Contribution of archaeological data to studies of earthquake history in the Iranian Plateau

We use archaeological evidence to identify ancient earthquakes in the vicinity of large 20th century events in the Iranian Plateau. Two large earthquakes on the Zagros Main Recent Fault were preceded by historical earthquakes in AD 1008 and AD 1107 and by earthquakes in the intervals AD 224‐459 and 1650‐1600 BC, giving return times of 1800‐2100, 500‐800, and 850‐950 years. The AD 1962 (Ms 7.2) Bo’in Zahra earthquake on the Ipak fault in north-central Iran was preceded by an earthquake in 2000‐1500 BC recorded at the Sagzabad mound, a return time of 3500‐4000 years if there are no missing events. The AD 1990 (Ms 7.3) Rudbar‐Tarom earthquake in the western Alborz Mountains was preceded by an earthquake in 1000‐800 BC recorded at the Marlik mound, a return time of 2800‐3000 years. The AD 1948 (Ms 7.2) Kopeh Dagh earthquake that destroyed Ashkabad, capital of Turkmenistan, was preceded by an earthquake in 10 BC‐AD 10 recorded at Mithradatkert (Nesa) mound and by an earthquake in 2000 BC recorded at Ak Tapeh mound. Assuming no missing earthquakes, this region has an earthquake return time of about 2000 years. In Khorasan province, which was struck by a sequence of large earthquakes from AD 1936 to 1997, a mosque at Qa’en was destroyed in the mid-11th century AD, probably the historical earthquake of AD1066. In the absence of palaeoseismic investigations, archaeology offers the promise of recording earthquakes through more than one seismic cycle in different regions of Iran. q 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prospects for Larger or More Frequent Earthquakes in the Los Angeles Metropolitan Region

Far too few moderate earthquakes have occurred within the Los Angeles, California, metropolitan region during the 200-year-long historic period to account for observed strain accumulation, indicating that the historic era represents either a lull between clusters of moderate earthquakes or part of a centuries-long interseismic period between much larger (moment magnitude, Mw, 7.2 to 7.6) events. Geologic slip rates and relations between moment magnitude, average coseismic slip, and rupture area show that either of these hypotheses is possible, but that the latter is the more plausible of the two. The average time between Mw 7.2 to 7.6 earthquakes from a combination of six fault systems within the metropolitan area was estimated to be about 140 years.

Community Fault Model (CFM) for Southern California

We present a new three-dimensional model of the major fault systems in southern California. The model describes the San Andreas fault and associated strike- slip fault systems in the eastern California shear zone and Peninsular Ranges, as well as active blind-thrust and reverse faults in the Los Angeles basin and Transverse Ranges. The model consists of triangulated surface representations (t-surfs) of more than 140 active faults that are defined based on surfaces traces, seismicity, seismic reflection profiles, wells, and geologic cross sections and models. The majority of earthquakes, and more than 95% of the regional seismic moment release, occur along faults represented in the model. This suggests that the model describes a comprehen- sive set of major earthquake sources in the region. The model serves the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) as a unified resource for physics-based fault systems modeling, strong ground-motion prediction, and probabilistic seismic hazards assessment.

Hope fault, Jordan thrust, and uplift of the Seaward Kaikoura Range, New Zealand

In the northern South Island of New Zealand, displacement at the Pacific-Indian plate boundary is accommodated by the east-north-east-striking, right-lateral strike-slip Marlborough fault system. The southernmost Marlborough fault is the Hope fault; the late Pleistocene-Holocene horizontal slip rate on this fault is 20-25 mm/yr, about half of the rate of Pacific-Australian plate motion. Near the eastern end of the Hope fault, most displacement is transferred to the north-northeast-striking Jordan thrust, but the average dip-slip rate at the surface trace of this thrust is less than 4 mm/yr. We propose that most slip takes place on a blind thrust, expressed at the surface by the fault-propagation folding of the Seaward Kaikoura Range, and that the rate of uplift of this range is as high as that of the Southern Alps, 6 to 10 mm/yr. The major restraining bend of the Alpine fault has the same average slip rate as the Wairau fault, 4-6 mm/yr. Even though the Alpine fault is an east-dipping, reverse-separation fault at the restraining bend, this low slip rate results in uplift of the Spenser Mountains east of the bend at a rate lower than that of the Southern Alps and Seaward Kaikoura Range.

Development of the Himalayan frontal thrust zone: Salt Range, Pakistan

The Salt Range is the active frontal thrust zone of the Himalaya in Pakistan. Seismic reflection data show that a 1 km offset of the basement acted as a buttress that caused the central Salt Range-Potwar Plateau thrust sheet to ramp to the surface, exposing Mesozoic and Paleozoic strata. The frontal part of the thrust sheet was folded passively as it overrode the subthrust surface on a ductile layer of Eocambrian salt. Lack of internal deformation of the rear part of the thrust sheet is due to decoupling of sediments from the basement along this salt layer. Early to middle Pliocene (~4.5 Ma) conglomerate deposition in the southern Potwar Plateau, previously interpreted in terms of compressional deformation, may instead document uplift related to basement normal faulting. Stratigraphic evidence, paleomagnetic dating of unconformities, and sediment-accumulation rates suggest that the thrust sheet began to override the basement offset from 2.1 to 1.6 Ma. Cross-section balancing demonstrates at least 20 to 23 km of shortening across the ramp. The rate of Himalayan convergence that can be attributed to underthrusting of Indian basement beneath sediments in the Pakistan foreland is therefore at least 9-14 mm/yr, about 20%-35% of the total plate convergence rate.

Contemporary tectonics of the Himalayan frontal fault system: folds, blind thrusts and the 1905 Kangra earthquake

The Sub-Himalayan fold-thrust belt consists of deformed late Cenozoic and older deposits south of the Main Boundary thrust (MBT). In Pakistan, east of the Indus River, the Sub-Himalaya comprises the Potwar Plateau and the Salt Range, which is thrust southward over the Jhelum River floodplain along the Salt Range thrust. Although an estimated 9–14 mm a−1 shortening has been taken up on the Salt Range thrust during the last 2 Ma, the range-front scarp does not show signs of recent faulting. Shortening may be shifting southward to the Lilla overpressured anticline, which rises from the Jhelum floodplain as a fault-propagation fold. Farther east, shortening is partitioned among several anticlines underlain by foreland- and hinterland-dipping blind thrusts. Southeast of the main deformation zone, the Pabbi Hills overpressured anticline is best explained as a fault-propagation fold. Throughout the Potwar Plateau and Salt Range, thrusts and folds rise from a basal decollement horizon in Eocambrian evaporites. The Pakistani part of the decollement horizon could generate large earthquakes only if these evaporites die out northward at seismogenic depths. In India and Nepal, the Sub-Himalaya is narrower, reflecting the absence of evaporites and a steeper slope of the basement towards the hinterland. The southern boundary of the Sub-Himalaya is the Himalayan Front fault, discontinuous because part of the shortening is expressed at the surface by folding. Broad, alluvial synclinal valleys (dun valleys) are bounded on the south by rising barrier anticlines of Siwalik molasse. The 1905 Kangra earthquake (M8) produced uplift on the Mohand anticline and the Dehra Dun Valley, suggesting that this earthquake occurred on a decollement horizon above basement, downdip from the fold. If so, the Kangra event is the largest known earthquake on a blind thrust expressed at the surface as a fold.

Geomorphic indicators of active fold growth: South Mountain–Oak Ridge anticline, Ventura basin, southern California

South Mountain–Oak Ridge, near Ventura, California, is an asymmetric anticlinal uplift forming at the present time above the active, buried Oak Ridge reverse fault. Shortening along the Oak Ridge fault accumulated largely in Quaternary time and is responsible for the growth and present topography of the westernmost 15 km of the ridge during the past 0.5 m.y. Tectonic geomorphic analysis using several indices of active tectonics provides information concerning fold growth. Stream-gradient indices are relatively high in the northern, eroded fold scarp of the ridge, a pattern consistent with the existence of active, rapid slip on the Oak Ridge fault. Mountain-front sinuosity along the northern slope of the anticlinal ridge roughly decreases from ∼2 to 1 toward the westernmost 10 km of observed surface folding. Valley floor width to valley height ratios along the northern flank of the ridge generally decrease westward from ∼1.5 to 0.5. Values of the hypsometric integral along the northern flank increase significantly from ∼0.35 to 0.4 (maximum ∼0.55) from east to west. Drainage density varies from ∼4 to 6 km/km2 along both flanks of the South Mountain–Oak Ridge anticline. Entrenchment of streams into the (southern) backlimb of the fold along the westernmost 9 km of the structure decreases from ∼20 m to <1 m from east to west. Apparent backlimb rotation, as measured by dip of strata along the westernmost 7 km of the fold, decreases from east to west, from ∼35° to 20°. Fold growth of the South Mountain–Oak Ridge anticline occurred during the past 0.5 Ma following deposition of the Saugus Formation. Lateral and vertical fold growth were likely produced by westward decrease in fault slip along the buried Oak Ridge fault.

A Vertical Exposure of the 1999 Surface Rupture of the Chelungpu Fault at Wufeng, Western Taiwan: Structural and Paleoseismic Implications for an Active Thrust Fault

We mapped and analyzed two vertical exposures—exposed on the walls of a 3- to 5-m-deep, 70-m-long excavation and a smaller 3-m-deep, 10-m-long excavation—across the 1999 rupture of the Chelungpu fault. The primary exposure revealed a broad anticlinal fold with a 2.5-m-high west-facing principal thrust scarp contained in fluvial cobbly gravel beds and overlying fine-grained overbank deposits. Sequential restoration of the principal rupture requires initial failure on the basal, east-dipping thrust plane, followed by wedge thrusting and pop-up of an overlying symmetrical anticline between two opposing secondary thrust faults. Net vertical offset is about 2.2 m across the principal fault zone. From line-length changes, we estimate about 3.3 m of horizontal shortening normal to fault strike. The ratio of these values yields a total slip of 4.0 m and an estimate of about 34° for the dip of the fault plane below the excavation. This value is nearly the same as the 35° average dip of the fault plane from the surface to the hypocenter. Restoration of the exposed gravelly strata and adjacent overbank sediments deposited prior to the 1999 event around the principal rupture suggests the possible existence of a prior event. A buried 30-m-wide anticlinal warp beneath the uplifted crest of the 1999 event is associated with three buried reverse faults that we interpret as evidence for an earlier episode of folding and faulting in the site. The prior event is also recorded in the smaller excavation, which is located 40 m south and is oriented parallel to the larger excavation. Radiocarbon dating of samples within the exposed section did not place tight constraints on the date of the previous event. Available data are interpreted as indicating that the previous event occurred before the deposition of the less than 200 ^(14)C yr B.P. overbank sands and after the deposition of the much older fluvial gravels. We interpret the previous event as the penultimate event relative to the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake. We estimated the long-term slip rate of the Chelungpu fault to be 10-15 mm/yr during the last 1 Ma, based on previously published retrodeformable cross sections. This rate is, however, significantly higher than geodetic rates of shortening across the Chelungpu thrust where two pairs of permanent Global Positioning System stations suggest 7-10 mm/yr of shortening across the fault. Given the 4 m of average slip, the long-term slip rate yields an interseismic interval of between 267 and 400 yr for the Chelungpu fault.