Robert Shishko

NASA technology assessment using real options valuation

We examine the use of real options valuation in the context of prioritizing advanced technologies for NASA funding. Further, we offer a set of computational procedures that quantifies the option value of each technology. Other researchers have applied a real options framework to private sector investments. In the case of NASA investments in advanced technologies, the underlying products, which must be used to justify the investments, are space-related scientific results and discoveries from completed missions to be shared worldwide. As in the private sector, uncertainty plays a significant role in the motivation to use real options in NASA. Uncertainty in NASA technology investments can be classified as development risk and programmatic risk (whether missions using the technology will actually fly). The latter might be called the technology “market risk.” We carried out the approach on a number of planetary exploration technologies. We illustrate the detailed calculations using one of them—lightweight propellant tank technology.

Generalized Multicommodity Network Flow Model for the Earth–Moon–Mars Logistics System

Simple logistics strategies such as “carry-along” and Earth-based “resupply” were sufficient for past human space programs. Next-generation space logistics paradigms are expected to be more complex, involving multiple exploration destinations and in situ resource utilization. Optional in situ resource utilization brings additional complexity to the interplanetary supply chain network design problem. This paper presents an interdependent network flow modeling method for determining optimal logistics strategies for space exploration and its application to the human exploration of Mars. It is found that a strategy using lunar resources in the cislunar network may improve overall launch mass to low Earth orbit for recurring missions to Mars compared to NASA’s Mars Design Reference Architecture 5.0, even when including the mass of the in situ resource utilization infrastructures that need to be predeployed. Other findings suggest that chemical propulsion using liquid oxygen/liquid hydrogen, lunar in situ resou...

The Future of Asset Management for Human Space Exploration: Supply Classification and an Integrated Database

One of the major logistical challenges in human space exploration is asset management. This paper presents observations on the practice of asset management in support of human space flight to date and discusses a functional-based supply classification and a framework for an integrated database that could be used to improve asset management and logistics for future human missions to the Moon, Mars and beyond.

A flexible architecture and object-oriented model for space logistics simulation

This paper summarizes the motivation for and the resulting development of a flexible object-oriented software model for simulation and analysis of space exploration campaign logistics. The software model was designed to be applicable to several widely-varying use case scenarios including International Space St ation resupply, support for a long-term lunar outpost and global lunar exploration, and Martian exploration by human and robotic agents. The model includes analysis capability fo r exploration sustainability topics including reusability, reconfigurability, commonality, and repairability. Key additional features include modular demand models that are easily interchanged, element-level models for finegrained demand integration, and reconfigurable system operational states to dynamically change demand models. Other capabilities include generalized impulsive burn maneuvers, surface transportation, abstracted flight transportation, improved support for multidestination scenarios, and multi-user collaboration via online databases.

SpaceNet: Modeling and Simulating Space Logistics

This paper summarizes the current state of the art in interplanetary supply chain modeling and discusses SpaceNet as one particular method and tool to address space logistics modeling and simulation challenges. Fundamental upgrades to the interplanetary supply chain framework such as process groups, nested elements, and cargo sharing, enabled SpaceNet to model an integrated set of missions as a campaign. The capabilities and uses of SpaceNet are demonstrated by a step-by-step modeling and simulation of a lunar campaign.

An integrated economics model for ISRU in support of a Mars colony - initial status report

The aim of this effort is to develop an integrated set of risk-based financial and technical models to evaluate multiple Off-Earth Mining (OEM) scenarios. This quantitative, scenarioand simulation-based tool will help identify combinations of market variables, technical parameters, and policy levers that will enable the expansion of the global economy into the solar system and return economic benefits. Human ventures in space are entering a new phase in which missions formerly driven by government agencies are now being replaced by those led by commercial enterprises – in launch, satellite deployment, resupply of the International Space Station, and space tourism. In the not-too-distant future, commercial opportunities will also include the mining of asteroids, the Moon, and Mars. This investigation will examine the role of OEM in a growing space economy. (In this investigation, the term ‘mining’ is taken to embrace minerals, ice/water, and other in situ resources.) OEM can be the engine that drives the space economy, so it would be useful to understand what OEM market conditions and technology requirements are needed for that economy to prosper. These specific elements will be studied in the wider context of creating an economy that could ultimately support a sustainable Mars Colony. Such a colony will need in situ resources not only for its own survival, but to prosper and grow, it must create viable business ventures, essentially by fulfilling the demand for in situ resources from and on Mars. This investigation will focus on understanding the role and economic prospect for OEM associated with the Human Colonization of Mars (HCM).

Stochastic Analysis of Constellation Performance and Mass Margins

A new method for analyzing margins in the Constellation program is described and applied to the performance and mass margins for the integrated transportation system returning humans to the lunar surface. The approach treats the Ares-V Earth-departure-stage gross payload-delivery capability and the translunar injection masses of Orion and Altair as random variables. For various vehicle requirements, vehicle control masses, and design reference missions, a Monte Carlo simulation estimate is used to estimate the critical probability that the delivery capability exceeds that injected mass. This critical probability can be used to establish program performance and mass margins and, in conjunction with other measures, to manage vehicle selection and trades at the program level.

NASA technology assessment using real options valuation: Regular Paper

This paper investigates alternative approaches to constant rate discounting for calculation of Net Present Value (NPV) in life cycle cost models that are used for engineering trade studies. Alternative approaches are necessary to meet the challenge of equitable intergenerational resource allocation for projects like radioactive waste disposal that have a life cycle that impacts future generations well beyond the 30-year maximum time horizon limit that results from using market-determined interest rates on bonds. This paper reviews the literature on long-term discount models, provides a consistent nomenclature for describing the models, summarizes the theoretical and empirical basis for hyperbolic discounting models, evaluates the research results to date, and provides a recommendation for applying hyperbolic discounting. It also identifies issues with the current U.S. government policy on discounting and the future research necessary to establish an improved foundation for discounting models for long-term projects.

Developing Analogy Cost Estimates for Space Missions

*The analogy approach in cost estimation combines actual cost data from similar existing systems, activiti es, or items with adjustments for a new project’s technical, physical or programmatic differences to derive a cost estimate for the new system. This method is normally used early in a project cycle when there is insufficient design/cost data to use as a ba sis for (or insufficient time to perform) a detailed engineering cost estimate. The major limitation of this method is that it relies on the judgment and experience of the analyst/estimator. The analyst must ensure that the best analogy or analogies have b een selected, and that appropriate adjustments have been made. While analogy costing is common, there is a dearth of advice in the literature on the “adjustment methodology”, especially for hardware projects. This paper discusses some potential approaches that can improve rigor and repeatability in the analogy costing process.

Optimizing technology investments: a broad mission model approach

A long-standing problem in NASA is how to allocate scarce technology development resources across advanced technologies in order to best support a large set of future potential missions. Within NASA, two orthogonal paradigms have received attention in recent years: the real-options approach and the broad mission model approach. This paper focuses on the latter.