Robert Smalley

The 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule Megathrust Earthquake of Central Chile, Monitored by GPS

Rupture kinematics of this very large earthquake were obtained from high-resolution Global Positioning System data. Large earthquakes produce crustal deformation that can be quantified by geodetic measurements, allowing for the determination of the slip distribution on the fault. We used data from Global Positioning System (GPS) networks in Central Chile to infer the static deformation and the kinematics of the 2010 moment magnitude (Mw) 8.8 Maule megathrust earthquake. From elastic modeling, we found a total rupture length of ~500 kilometers where slip (up to 15 meters) concentrated on two main asperities situated on both sides of the epicenter. We found that rupture reached shallow depths, probably extending up to the trench. Resolvable afterslip occurred in regions of low coseismic slip. The low-frequency hypocenter is relocated 40 kilometers southwest of initial estimates. Rupture propagated bilaterally at about 3.1 kilometers per second, with possible but not fully resolved velocity variations.

The Nazca -South America Euler vector and its rate of change

We present velocities relative to the South American plate for five GPS stations on the Nazca plate and use these measurements to estimate the modern Euler vector. We find a pole at 55.88N, 92.58W with a rotation rate of 0.60 8/Myr. Because the GPS station at Easter Island appears to be moving at approximately 6.6 mm/yr relative to the other Nazca stations, we repeat our analysis with this station excluded from the inversion to obtain a second and preferred result (called CAP10) with a pole at 61.08N, 94.48W and a rate of 0.57 8/Myr. We compare these results with published finite rotation vectors and infer that during the past 10 – 20 Myrs, the Nazca – South America rotation rate has decelerated by 0.048 – 0.06 8/Myr 2 .

Crustal motion in the zone of the 1960 Chile earthquake: Detangling earthquake-cycle deformation and forearc-sliver translation

Temporary deformation in great earthquake cycles and permanent shear deformation associated with oblique plate convergence both provide critical clues for understanding geodynamics and earthquake hazard at subduction zones. In the region affected by the Mw 9.5 great Chile earthquake of 1960, we have obtained GPS observations that provide information on both types of deformation. Our velocity solutions for the first time span the entire latitudinal range of the 1960 earthquake. The new observations revealed a pattern of opposing (roughly arc-normal) motion of coastal and inland sites, consistent with what was reported earlier for the northern part of this region. This finding supports the model of prolonged postseismic deformation as a result of viscoelastic stress relaxation in the mantle. The new observations also provide the first geodetic evidence for the dextral motion of an intravolcanic arc fault system and the consequent northward translation of a forearc sliver. The sliver motion can be modeled using a rate of 6.5 mm/a, accommodating about 75% of the margin-parallel component of Nazca–South America relative plate motion, with the rate diminishing to the north. Furthermore, the new GPS observations show a southward decrease in margin-normal velocities of the coastal area. We prefer explaining the southward decrease in terms of changes in the width or frictional properties of the megathrust seismogenic zone. Because of the much younger age of the subducting plate and warmer thermal regime in the south, the currently locked portion of the plate interface may be narrower. Using a three-dimensional viscoelastic finite element model of postseismic and interseismic deformation following the 1960 earthquake, we demonstrate that this explanation, although not unique, is consistent with the GPS observations to the first order.

The 2010 Maule, Chile earthquake: Downdip rupture limit revealed by space geodesy

Radar interferometry from the ALOS satellite captured the coseismic ground deformation associated with the 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule, Chile earthquake. The ALOS interferograms reveal a sharp transition in fringe pattern at ~150 km from the trench axis that is diagnostic of the downdip rupture limit of the Maule earthquake. An elastic dislocation model based on ascending and descending ALOS interferograms and 13 near-field 3-component GPS measurements reveals that the coseismic slip decreases more or less linearly from a maximum of 17 m (along-strike average of 6.5 m) at 18 km depth to near zero at 43–48 km depth, quantitatively indicating the downdip limit of the seismogenic zone. The depth at which slip drops to near zero appears to be at the intersection of the subducting plate with the continental Moho. Our model also suggests that the depth where coseismic slip vanishes is nearly uniform along the strike direction for a rupture length of ~600 km. The average coseismic slip vector and the interseismic velocity vector are not parallel, which can be interpreted as a deficit in strike-slip moment release.

Basement seismicity beneath the Andean precordillera thin-skinned thrust belt and implications for crustal and lithospheric behavior

Data from a digitally recording seismic network in San Juan, Argentina, provide the first images of crustal scale basement faults beneath the Precordillera. This seismicity is near the boundary between the Precordillera (a thin-skinned thrust belt) and the Sierras Pampeanas (a region of thick-skinned basement deformation), two seismically active tectonic provinces of the Andean foreland. The seismicity data support models for this region in which crustal thickening, rather than magmatic addition or thermal uplift, plays the dominant mountain building role. The Precordillera seismicity occurs in three segments distributed north to south. The southern segment is an area of diffuse activity extending across the Precordillera and eastward into the Sierras Pampeanas that shows no patterns in map or cross section. The northern and central segments have well-defined dipping planes that define crustal scale faults extending from 5 to 35 km depth. It is clear from the relative fault geometries that the overlying Precordillera is not simply related to the basement activity. The seismicity here may result from reactivation of an ancient suture between the Precordillera and Pampeanas terranes or be occurring in basement of unknown affinity west of the suture. The seismicity provides the first constraints on basement fault geometries, and we present models integrating this information with the surface geology. These basement faults may have been responsible for the 1944 Ms 7.4 earthquake that destroyed the city of San Juan. The imaging of these faults suggests that seismic risk estimates for San Juan made on the basis of surface geologic studies may be too low.

Bending the Bolivian orocline in real time

Global positioning system (GPS) data from the central Andes record vertical axis rotations that are consistently counterclockwise in Peru and Bolivia north of the bend in the mountain belt, and clockwise to the south in southern Bolivia, Argentina, and Chile. These geologically instantaneous rotations have the same sense as rotations that have accrued over millions of years and are recorded by paleomagnetic and geologic indicators. The change in sign of the rotation at both decadal and million-year time scales occurs across the axis of topographic symmetry that defines the Bolivian orocline. When extrapolated to a common time interval, the magnitudes of rotation from geologic features and from GPS are surprisingly similar, given that a significant part of the instantaneous deformation field is probably elastic and due to interseismic locking of the plate boundary. Some of the interseismic deformation field must reflect permanent deformation, and/or some of the current elastic deformation will be converted to upper-plate permanent deformation over time rather than be recovered by elastic rebound during interplate earthquakes. We suggest that the spatial patterns of the elastic and the permanent modes of bending are similar because they are driven by the same stress field.

Geodetic measurements of vertical crustal velocity in West Antarctica and the implications for ice mass balance

We present preliminary geodetic estimates for vertical bedrock velocity at twelve survey GPS stations in the West Antarctic GPS Network, an additional survey station in the northern Antarctic Peninsula, and eleven continuous GPS stations distributed across the continent. The spatial pattern of these velocities is not consistent with any postglacial rebound (PGR) model known to us. Four leading PGR models appear to be overpredicting uplift rates in the Transantarctic Mountains and West Antarctica and underpredicting them in the peninsula north of 65°. This discrepancy cannot be explained in terms of an elastic response to modern ice loss (except, perhaps, in part of the peninsula). Therefore, our initial geodetic results suggest that most GRACE ice mass rate estimates, which are critically dependent on a PGR correction, are systematically biased and are overpredicting ice loss for the continent as a whole.

Space geodetic evidence for rapid strain rates in the New Madrid seismic zone of central USA.

In the winter of 1811–1812, near the town of New Madrid in the central United States and more than 2,000 km from the nearest plate boundary, three earthquakes within three months shook the entire eastern half of the country and liquefied the ground over distances far greater than any historic earthquake in North America. The origin and modern significance of these earthquakes, however, is highly contentious. Geological evidence demonstrates that liquefaction due to strong ground shaking, similar in scale to that generated by the New Madrid earthquakes, has occurred at least three and possibly four times in the past 2,000 years (refs 4–6), consistent with recurrence statistics derived from regional seismicity. Here we show direct evidence for rapid strain rates in the area determined from a continuously operated global positioning system (GPS) network. Rates of strain are of the order of 10-7 per year, comparable in magnitude to those across active plate boundaries, and are consistent with known active faults within the region. These results have significant implications for the definition of seismic hazard and for processes that drive intraplate seismicity.

Significant Motions between GPS Sites in the New Madrid Region: Implications for Seismic Hazard

Position time series from Global Positioning System (GPS) stations in the New Madrid region were differenced to determine the relative motions between sta- tions. Uncertainties in rates were estimated using a three-component noise model con- sisting of white, flicker, and random walk noise, following the methodology of Langbein, 2004. Significant motions of 0:37 0:07 (one standard error) mm/yr were found between sites PTGVand STLE, for which the baseline crosses the inferred deep portion of the Reelfoot fault. Baselines between STLE and three other sites also show significant motion. Site MCTY (adjacent to STLE) also exhibits significant motion with respect to PTGV. These motions are consistent with a model of interseismic slip of about 4 mm=yr on the Reelfoot fault at depths between 12 and 20 km. If constant over time, this rate of slip produces sufficient slip for an M 7.3 earthquake on the shallow portion of the Reelfoot fault, using the geologically derived recurrence time of 500 years. This model assumes that the shallow portion of the fault has been pre- viously loaded by the intraplate stress. A GPS site near Little Rock, Arkansas, shows significant southward motion of 0:3-0:4 mm=yr (0:08 mm=yr) relative to three sites to the north, indicating strain consistent with focal mechanisms of earthquake swarms in northern Arkansas.

Local tsunami warnings: Perspectives from recent large events

We demonstrate a flexible strategy for local tsunami warning that relies on regional geodetic and seismic stations. Through retrospective analysis of four recent tsunamigenic events in Japan and Chile, we show that rapid earthquake source information, provided by methodologies developed for earthquake early warning, can be used to generate timely estimates of maximum expected tsunami amplitude with enough accuracy for tsunami warning. We validate the technique by comparing to detailed models of earthquake source and tsunami propagation as well as field surveys of tsunami inundation. Our approach does not require deployment of new geodetic and seismic instrumentation in many subduction zones and could be implemented rapidly by national monitoring and warning agencies. We illustrate the potential impact of our method with a detailed comparison to the actual timeline of events during the recent 2015 Mw8.3 Illapel, Chile, earthquake and tsunami that prompted the evacuation of 1 million people.