Robert Verity

Immunogenicity of the RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine and implications for duration of vaccine efficacy: secondary analysis of data from a phase 3 randomised controlled trial

Summary Background The RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine targets the circumsporozoite protein, inducing antibodies associated with the prevention of Plasmodium falciparum infection. We assessed the association between anti-circumsporozoite antibody titres and the magnitude and duration of vaccine efficacy using data from a phase 3 trial done between 2009 and 2014. Methods Using data from 8922 African children aged 5–17 months and 6537 African infants aged 6–12 weeks at first vaccination, we analysed the determinants of immunogenicity after RTS,S/AS01 vaccination with or without a booster dose. We assessed the association between the incidence of clinical malaria and anti-circumsporozoite antibody titres using a model of anti-circumsporozoite antibody dynamics and the natural acquisition of protective immunity over time. Findings RTS,S/AS01-induced anti-circumsporozoite antibody titres were greater in children aged 5–17 months than in those aged 6–12 weeks. Pre-vaccination anti-circumsporozoite titres were associated with lower immunogenicity in children aged 6–12 weeks and higher immunogenicity in those aged 5–17 months. The immunogenicity of the booster dose was strongly associated with immunogenicity after primary vaccination. Anti-circumsporozoite titres wane according to a biphasic exponential distribution. In participants aged 5–17 months, the half-life of the short-lived component of the antibody response was 45 days (95% credible interval 42–48) and that of the long-lived component was 591 days (557–632). After primary vaccination 12% (11–13) of the response was estimated to be long-lived, rising to 30% (28–32%) after a booster dose. An anti-circumsporozoite antibody titre of 121 EU/mL (98–153) was estimated to prevent 50% of infections. Waning anti-circumsporozoite antibody titres predict the duration of efficacy against clinical malaria across different age categories and transmission intensities, and efficacy wanes more rapidly at higher transmission intensity. Interpretation Anti-circumsporozoite antibody titres are a surrogate of protection for the magnitude and duration of RTS,S/AS01 efficacy, with or without a booster dose, providing a valuable surrogate of effectiveness for new RTS,S formulations in the age groups considered. Funding UK Medical Research Council.

Public health impact and cost-effectiveness of the RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine: a systematic comparison of predictions from four mathematical models

Summary Background The phase 3 trial of the RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine candidate showed modest efficacy of the vaccine against Plasmodium falciparum malaria, but was not powered to assess mortality endpoints. Impact projections and cost-effectiveness estimates for longer timeframes than the trial follow-up and across a range of settings are needed to inform policy recommendations. We aimed to assess the public health impact and cost-effectiveness of routine use of the RTS,S/AS01 vaccine in African settings. Methods We compared four malaria transmission models and their predictions to assess vaccine cost-effectiveness and impact. We used trial data for follow-up of 32 months or longer to parameterise vaccine protection in the group aged 5–17 months. Estimates of cases, deaths, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) averted were calculated over a 15 year time horizon for a range of levels of Plasmodium falciparum parasite prevalence in 2–10 year olds (PfPR2–10; range 3–65%). We considered two vaccine schedules: three doses at ages 6, 7·5, and 9 months (three-dose schedule, 90% coverage) and including a fourth dose at age 27 months (four-dose schedule, 72% coverage). We estimated cost-effectiveness in the presence of existing malaria interventions for vaccine prices of US

Pfhrp2 -Deleted Plasmodium falciparum Parasites in the Democratic Republic of the Congo: A National Cross-sectional Survey

2–10 per dose. Findings In regions with a PfPR2–10 of 10–65%, RTS,S/AS01 is predicted to avert a median of 93 940 (range 20 490–126 540) clinical cases and 394 (127–708) deaths for the three-dose schedule, or 116 480 (31 450–160 410) clinical cases and 484 (189–859) deaths for the four-dose schedule, per 100 000 fully vaccinated children. A positive impact is also predicted at a PfPR2–10 of 5–10%, but there is little impact at a prevalence of lower than 3%. At

What is genetic differentiation, and how should we measure it—GST, D, neither or both?

5 per dose and a PfPR2–10 of 10–65%, we estimated a median incremental cost-effectiveness ratio compared with current interventions of

The effect of polyploidy and hybridization on the evolution of floral colour in Nicotiana (Solanaceae).

30 (range 18–211) per clinical case averted and

Spatial targeting of infectious disease control: Identifying multiple, unknown sources

80 (44–279) per DALY averted for the three-dose schedule, and of

Estimating the Number of Subpopulations (K) in Structured Populations.

25 (16–222) and

minotaur: A platform for the analysis and visualization of multivariate results from genome scans with R Shiny.

87 (48–244), respectively, for the four-dose schedule. Higher ICERs were estimated at low PfPR2–10 levels. Interpretation We predict a significant public health impact and high cost-effectiveness of the RTS,S/AS01 vaccine across a wide range of settings. Decisions about implementation will need to consider levels of malaria burden, the cost-effectiveness and coverage of other malaria interventions, health priorities, financing, and the capacity of the health system to deliver the vaccine. Funding PATH Malaria Vaccine Initiative; Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation; Global Good Fund; Medical Research Council; UK Department for International Development; GAVI, the Vaccine Alliance; WHO.

Modelling the drivers of the spread of Plasmodium falciparum hrp2 gene deletions in sub-Saharan Africa

Background Rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) account for more than two-thirds of malaria diagnoses in Africa. Deletions of the Plasmodium falciparum hrp2 (pfhrp2) gene cause false-negative RDT results and have never been investigated on a national level. Spread of pfhrp2-deleted P. falciparum mutants, resistant to detection by HRP2-based RDTs, would represent a serious threat to malaria elimination efforts. Methods Using a nationally representative cross-sectional study of 7,137 children under five years of age from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), we tested 783 subjects with RDT-/PCR+ results using PCR assays to detect and confirm deletions of the pfhrp2 gene. Spatial and population genetic analyses were employed to examine the distribution and evolution of these parasites. Results We identified 149 pfhrp2-deleted parasites, representing 6.4% of all P. falciparum infections country-wide (95% confidence interval 5.1-8.0%). Bayesian spatial analyses identified statistically significant clustering of pfhrp2 deletions near Kinshasa and Kivu. Population genetic analysis revealed significant genetic differentiation between wild-type and pfhrp2-deleted parasite populations (GST = .046, p ≤ .00001). Conclusions Pfhrp2-deleted P. falciparum is a common cause of RDT-/PCR+ malaria among asymptomatic children in the DRC and appears to be clustered within select communities. Surveillance for these deletions is needed, and alternatives to HRP2-specific RDTs may be necessary.

Vaccine approaches to malaria control and elimination: Insights from mathematical models

Estimates of the fixation index, FST, have been used as measures of population differentiation for many decades. However, there have been persistent voices in the literature suggesting that these statistics do not measure true differentiation. In particular, the statistics Neis GST and Wier and Cockerhams θ have been criticized for being ‘constrained’ to not equal one in some situations that seem to represent maximal differentiation. Here, we address the issue of how to evaluate exactly how much information a particular statistic contains about the process of differentiation. This criterion can be used to counter most concerns about the performance of GST (and related statistics), while also being reconciled with the insights of those who have proposed alternative measures of differentiation. In particular, the likelihood‐based framework that we put forward can justify the use of GST as an effective measure of differentiation, but also shows that in some situations GST is insufficient on its own and needs supplementing by another measure such as Josts D or Hedricks G′ST. This approach will become increasingly important in the future, as greater emphasis is placed on analysing large data sets.