Robert W. Howard

Preliminary Real-World Evidence That Average Human Intelligence Really is Rising

Abstract Average IQ score has been rising for several decades but researchers dispute whether population intelligence really is increasing. Clear real-world evidence of a rise may settle the issue. I first examined the domain of chess, where performance can be readily measured and tracked over decades and people of all ages compete. The young increasingly have dominated the game since the 1970s, outperforming older players at progressively earlier ages. The median age of the top 50 players dropped from 38 years old in the 1970s to 29 in 1995, and the proportion aged under 25 more than doubled. The median age of the top 10 dropped from the late-30s in the 1970s to the mid-20s in the 1990s. The median age of world championship contenders dropped from 37 in 1971 to just 26 in 1994. The Soviet team which won the 1970 Chess Olympiad had a median age of 40 and the Russian team which won the 1998 Olympiad had a median age of 22.5. The longstanding record for youngest grandmaster, set in 1958, has been broken four times since 1991. I also looked at patent and educational statistics, which have been used to suggest that intelligence is not rising. Number of U.S. patents granted largely rose from 1963 to 1996. SAT test scores overall largely have fallen from 1951, but possibly for many reasons. The chess data are the first real-world evidence that population intelligence really may be rising.

Western retirees in Thailand: motives, experiences, wellbeing, assimilation and future needs

ABSTRACT Westerners increasingly retire outside their home countries, and some venture to developing nations. A growing number go to Thailand, usually after working there or after many tourist visits. The present study examined currently and formerly resident Western retirees in Thailand, with a focus on their reasons for migrating to Thailand, their wellbeing and perceived assimilation, the reasons why some leave, and their long-term welfare needs. The principal data source was an online survey of 152 current and former retirees in Thailand. The major reported motives were low living costs, a warm climate, to escape a disliked home nation, like of the Thai lifestyle and culture, and the availability of attractive sexual partners. Most survey respondents had a Thai spouse or live-in partner. The move apparently works out well for most, at least initially. They report positive wellbeing and feel assimilated, but most live with visa insecurity and their assimilation may be partly illusory, as many reported socialising mainly with other foreigners. The major long-term concerns of Western retired men in Thailand are their health-care and welfare needs, income problems, increasing negative local reactions to the influx of Westerners, and the possibility of visa cancellation that would enforce a move elsewhere.

Searching the real world for signs of rising population intelligence

Abstract Average raw scores on IQ tests have been rising for decades but it still is controversial whether population intelligence really is increasing. The present study looked at several real world indicators for evidence of a rise. First, the prevalence of mild mental retardation in the US population and elsewhere has been steadily declining for decades. Second, players in various intellectual games, particularly chess but to a lesser extent bridge and go, are reaching high performance levels at earlier and earlier ages. There are many more prodigies. Third, scientific productivity, measured by number of journal articles and patents awarded, has risen greatly over the last few decades, even though much top intellectual talent may be shifting from science. Finally, I surveyed perceptions of teachers who had taught in high schools for over 20 years. Most reported perceiving that average general intelligence, ability to do school work, and literacy skills of school children had not risen since 1979 but most believed that childrens’s practical ability had increased. Most reported perceiving a decline in students’s motivation, which may be affecting their perceptions of general intelligence. All these trends have various possible causes other than rising intelligence. However, together, and with other recent empirical evidence, most indicators suggest population intelligence really could be rising.

Individual differences in expertise development over decades in a complex intellectual domain

Learners acquire expertise at different rates and reach different peak performance levels. Key questions arise regarding what patterns of individual differences in expertise development occur and whether innate talent affects such development. International chess is a good test domain for both issues, because it has objective performance measures, actual practice measures (number of games), longitudinal population data, and minimal gatekeeper influence. Players’ expertise development typically follows either a logarithmic or a power-function curve, approaching asymptote by around 750 games. A comparison of eventual top players and other eventually well-practiced players typically reveals a performance difference at domain entry, which widens progressively with practice and then stays large and constant. The data show various correlated signs of apparent greater natural talent in eventual top players: precocity (indexed by entering the domain and gaining the grandmaster title much younger on average), faster acquisition of expertise (indexed by fewer years and games needed to gain the grandmaster title from domain entry), and a higher peak performance level after extensive actual practice. A factor analysis found evidence for an underlying natural talent factor that constrains ultimate performance level.

A complete database of international chess players and chess performance ratings for varied longitudinal studies

Chess is an oft-used study domain in psychology and artificial intelligence because it is well defined, its performance rating systems allow easy identification of experts and their development, and chess playing is a complex intellectual task. However, usable computerized chess data have been very limited. The present article has two aims. The first is to highlight the methodological value of chess data and how researchers can use them to address questions in quite different areas. The second is to present a computerized database of all international chess players and official performance ratings beginning from the inaugural 1970 international rating list. The database has millions of records and gives complete longitudinal official performance data for over 60,000 players from 1970 to the present. Like a time series of population censuses, these data can be used for many different research and teaching purposes. Three quite different studies, conducted by the author using the database, are described.

Linking extreme precocity and adult eminence: a study of eight prodigies at international chess

Do prodigies have extraordinary innate talent or do they just start very early and get much practice? Why do relatively few become eminent as adults? Is it because early and later success often need somewhat different abilities and gatekeepers rule? International chess is a good test domain for both issues because it has objective longitudinal data, unvarying task requirements, and no glass ceiling. Eight prodigies were studied. Some did not start chess particularly young but quickly reached high performance levels. Five already are very eminent, one becoming the youngest‐ever world champion at age 18. Chess prodigies probably do have great natural talent. Prodigies in domains with certain characteristics may tend to become eminent if they persist.

Evidence that rising population intelligence is impacting in formal education

Consensus is growing that rising IQ scores at least partly reflect rising population intelligence. However, there is no apparent impact in formal education, the one real world domain where it should be strongly and obviously impacting. Teachers evidently are not reporting brighter children. There is only one relevant formal study, however, which found that most Australian high school teachers surveyed did not perceive that students became brighter between 1979 and 1999. The present study investigated several possible reasons why; declining motivation in high school students masking rising intelligence, too short a time span or the wrong nation examined. The study was replicated in Australian primary school teachers who had been teaching for 20 or 30 years and in Singapore and Korea, where the environmental improvements thought to raise IQ have happened mainly in the last 40 years. Also, these nations lack the Wests grave classroom motivation problems. Most Australian primary teachers did not perceive brighter children even over 30 years, but most in the two Asian nations did, particularly those in Singapore. General intelligence may have largely stopped rising in Western nations decades ago while visuospatial ability has been increasing, which with test sophistication has been pushing up IQ scores slightly. When the environmental improvements occur rapidly, teachers readily note brighter children.

Musical instrument choice and playing history in post‐secondary level music students: some descriptive data, some causes and some background factors

Why do musicians specialize in the specific instruments that they do? Research has shown effects of such factors as the perceived masculinity/femininity of instruments and musicians personality but there are little background data on other factors. The present study had two major aims. The first aim was to gather some useful background data on musicians history of playing, looking at such things as number of instruments played and given up, number of main instruments, age of starting studying, and so on. The second was to examine some additional background factors and specific motives for choice, such as instrument availability and perceived need for players, in students studying music at post‐secondary level. A total of 157 music students completed a questionnaire that asked about their musical history and about various background factors. The results show complex musical histories, and many varied and multiple motives for specialization. Percentage of participants citing each instrument as a main instrument; most (about 82%) cited only one current main instrument Instrument Total Males Females Piano, 40.8, 39.7, 41.7 Voice, 28.7, 23.3, 33.3 Guitar, 19.7, 34.2, 7.1 Flute, 8.3, 2.7, 13.1 Violin, 5.1, 4.1, 6.0 Saxophone, 5.7, 8.2, 3.6 Clarinet, 4.5, 4.1, 4.8 Bass, 3.2, 6.8, 0 Drums, 3.2, 6.8, 0 Percussion, 1.3, 1.4, 1.2 Trumpet, 1.3, 1.4, 1.2 Viola, 1.3, 1.4, 1.2 Trombone, 1.3, 2.7, 0 Cello, 1.3, 2.7, 0 Recorder, 0.6, 1.4, 0 n = 157.

Generalization and transfer: An interrelation of paradigms and a taxonomy of knowledge extension processes

This article integrates work on generalization and transfer into a coherent framework. It analyzes the evolutionary problem with which generalization deals and then outlines a model of responses to a situation requiring generalization and a taxonomy of generalization and transfer processes. Key tenets are that many different generalization processes exist, that there are wide individual differences in which processes may occur, and that generalization of declarative knowledge usually involves concepts. Three experiments tested 2 tenets. One experiment suggested that generalization gradients found in the specialized paradigm used to study human stimulus generalization simply represent failure to perceptually discriminate between stimuli. The other experiments, involving a different paradigm, found step functions along dimensions instead of decremental gradients. They show that the traditional stimulus generalization paradigm is a type of concept learning paradigm. Participants generalize along a continuum by placing stimuli into categories. The experiments also show many different responses to a situation requiring generalization.

Practice other than playing games apparently has only a modest role in the development of chess expertise

Evidence that chess expertise rests on practice alone mostly comes from studies using a correlational retrospective recall paradigm, which confounds amount of study with number of games played and possible innate talent. Researchers also often use latest performance rating and include participants who play and study little. Study 1 partially replicated such studies with improvements such as use of peak rating and a large, skilled sample. Number of internationally-rated games played was the strongest predictor of peak rating. Total study hours was a significant but weaker predictor. Study 2 controlled for sampling confounds by including only very well-practiced players who had played at least 350 internationally-rated games. Total study hours did not predict rating at 350 games. Study 3 found that the subjective phenomenon of reaching a performance ceiling and undertaking specific practice to get beyond it does occur but does not distinguish between stronger and weaker players. Study 4 found that many players play relatively few internationally-rated games mostly because of other commitments, such as work and education. Extensive study may go along with great interest in and persistence at chess but apparently lacks a major causative role in chess performance level.