Roberto Basili

Toward a Ground-Motion Logic Tree for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment in Europe

The Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe (SHARE) project, which began in June 2009, aims at establishing new standards for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in the Euro-Mediterranean region. In this context, a logic tree for ground-motion prediction in Europe has been constructed. Ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs) and weights have been determined so that the logic tree captures epistemic uncertainty in ground-motion prediction for six different tectonic regimes in Europe. Here we present the strategy that we adopted to build such a logic tree. This strategy has the particularity of combining two complementary and independent approaches: expert judgment and data testing. A set of six experts was asked to weight pre-selected GMPEs while the ability of these GMPEs to predict available data was evaluated with the method of Scherbaum et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am 99:3234–3247, 2009). Results of both approaches were taken into account to commonly select the smallest set of GMPEs to capture the uncertainty in ground-motion prediction in Europe. For stable continental regions, two models, both from eastern North America, have been selected for shields, and three GMPEs from active shallow crustal regions have been added for continental crust. For subduction zones, four models, all non-European, have been chosen. Finally, for active shallow crustal regions, we selected four models, each of them from a different host region but only two of them were kept for long periods. In most cases, a common agreement has been also reached for the weights. In case of divergence, a sensitivity analysis of the weights on the seismic hazard has been conducted, showing that once the GMPEs have been selected, the associated set of weights has a smaller influence on the hazard.

The 2013 European Seismic Hazard Model: key components and results

The 2013 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM13) results from a community-based probabilistic seismic hazard assessment supported by the EU-FP7 project “Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe” (SHARE, 2009–2013). The ESHM13 is a consistent seismic hazard model for Europe and Turkey which overcomes the limitation of national borders and includes a through quantification of the uncertainties. It is the first completed regional effort contributing to the “Global Earthquake Model” initiative. It might serve as a reference model for various applications, from earthquake preparedness to earthquake risk mitigation strategies, including the update of the European seismic regulations for building design (Eurocode 8), and thus it is useful for future safety assessment and improvement of private and public buildings. Although its results constitute a reference for Europe, they do not replace the existing national design regulations that are in place for seismic design and construction of buildings. The ESHM13 represents a significant improvement compared to previous efforts as it is based on (1) the compilation of updated and harmonised versions of the databases required for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, (2) the adoption of standard procedures and robust methods, especially for expert elicitation and consensus building among hundreds of European experts, (3) the multi-disciplinary input from all branches of earthquake science and engineering, (4) the direct involvement of the CEN/TC250/SC8 committee in defining output specifications relevant for Eurocode 8 and (5) the accounting for epistemic uncertainties of model components and hazard results. Furthermore, enormous effort was devoted to transparently document and ensure open availability of all data, results and methods through the European Facility for Earthquake Hazard and Risk (www.efehr.org).

Earthquake‐generated tsunamis in the Mediterranean Sea: Scenarios of potential threats to Southern Italy

Italian Civil Defense; Project “Development of new technologies for the protection of the Italian territory from natural hazards” funded by the Italian Ministry of University and Research

Seismology and Tectonic Setting of the 2002 Molise, Italy, Earthquake

Two Mw 5.7 earthquakes struck a sparsely populated region of southern Italy, on October 31 and November 1, triggering a swarm-like sequence that lasted for several days. The earthquakes were caused by pure right-lateral slip between 10 and 24 km depth over a nearly vertical, previously undetected east-west fault. This mechanism is not typical for southern Italy, where normal faulting in the uppermost 12 km of the crust seems to dominate. However, east-west strike-slip faulting is kinematically consistent with the widely documented Apennines extension. The earthquake-causative fault appears to connect the Mattinata fault, a major active strike-slip feature cutting across the Gargano promontory, with east-west structures known beneath the axial part of the Apennines. The 2002 earthquakes thus highlighted a mode of earthquake release that may explain several large yet poorly understood historical earthquakes (e.g., 1361, 1456, 1731, 1930) located between the crest of the Apennines and the Adriatic coastline.

Revised slip rates for the Alpine fault at Inchbonnie: Implications for plate boundary kinematics of South Island, New Zealand

The northeast-striking, dextral-reverse Alpine fault transitions into the Marlborough Fault System near Inchbonnie in the central South Island, New Zealand. New slip-rate estimates for the Alpine fault are presented following a reassessment of the geomorphology and age of displaced late Holocene alluvial surfaces of the Taramakau River at Inchbonnie. Progressive avulsion and abandonment of the Taramakau floodplain, aided by fault movements during the late Holocene, have preserved a left-stepping fault scarp that grows in height to the northeast. Surveyed dextral (22.5 ± 2 m) and vertical (4.8 ± 0.5 m) displacements across a left stepover in the fault across an alluvial surface are combined with a precise maximum age from a remnant tree stump (≥1590–1730 yr) to yield dextral, vertical, and reverse-slip rates of 13.6 ± 1.8, 2.9 ± 0.4, and 3.4 ± 0.6 mm/yr, respectively. These values are larger (dextral) and smaller (dip slip) than previous estimates for this site, but they reflect advances in the local chronology of surfaces and represent improved time-averaged results over 1.7 k.y. A geological kinematic circuit constructed for the central South Island demonstrates that (1) 69%–89% of the Australian-Pacific plate motion is accommodated by the major faults (Alpine-Hope-Kakapo) in this transitional area, (2) the 50% drop in slip rate on the Alpine fault between Hokitika and Inchbonnie is taken up by the Hope and Kakapo faults at the southwestern edge of the Marlborough Fault System, and (3) the new slip rates are more compatible with contemporary models of strain partitioning presented from geodesy.

Coseismic and postseismic displacements related with the 1997 earthquake sequence in Umbria-Marche (Central Italy)

We study the coseismic and postseismic displacements related with the 1997 Umbria-Marche earthquake sequence by means of leveling lines along a deformed aqueduct located in the epicentral area. Comparing the 1960 and 10/1997 measurements we obtain 0.49±0.10 m of coseismic displacement distributed along 3 km across the normal fault zone. Modeling of the coseismic surface dislocation is obtained from a combination of low angle (38°) faults at depth and high angle (80°) upper fault branches. The best fit model indicates that the upper branches stop at 0.4 km below the ground surface and have 60% of slip with respect to the lower faults. The postseismic displacement measured during 1998 is 0.18 m and represents 36% of the apparent coseismic deformation. Moderate earthquakes in the Apennines and related surface deformation may thus result from curved faults that reflect the brittle-elastic properties of the uppermost crustal structures.

Ups and downs in western Crete (Hellenic subduction zone)

Studies of past sea-level markers are commonly used to unveil the tectonic history and seismic behavior of subduction zones. We present new evidence on vertical motions of the Hellenic subduction zone as resulting from a suite of Late Pleistocene - Holocene shorelines in western Crete (Greece). Shoreline ages obtained by AMS radiocarbon dating of seashells, together with the reappraisal of shoreline ages from previous works, testify a long-term uplift rate of 2.5–2.7 mm/y. This average value, however, includes periods in which the vertical motions vary significantly: 2.6–3.2 mm/y subsidence rate from 42 ka to 23 ka, followed by ~7.7 mm/y sustained uplift rate from 23 ka to present. The last ~5 ky shows a relatively slower uplift rate of 3.0–3.3 mm/y, yet slightly higher than the long-term average. A preliminary tectonic model attempts at explaining these up and down motions by across-strike partitioning of fault activity in the subduction zone.

The 2014 Earthquake Model of the Middle East: seismogenic sources

The Earthquake Model of Middle East (EMME) project was carried out between 2010 and 2014 to provide a harmonized seismic hazard assessment without country border limitations. The result covers eleven countries: Afghanistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Cyprus, Georgia, Iran, Jordan, Lebanon, Pakistan, Syria and Turkey, which span one of the seismically most active regions on Earth in response to complex interactions between four major tectonic plates i.e. Africa, Arabia, India and Eurasia. Destructive earthquakes with great loss of life and property are frequent within this region, as exemplified by the recent events of Izmit (Turkey, 1999), Bam (Iran, 2003), Kashmir (Pakistan, 2005), Van (Turkey, 2011), and Hindu Kush (Afghanistan, 2015). We summarize multidisciplinary data (seismicity, geology, and tectonics) compiled and used to characterize the spatial and temporal distribution of earthquakes over the investigated region. We describe the development process of the model including the delineation of seismogenic sources and the description of methods and parameters of earthquake recurrence models, all representing the current state of knowledge and practice in seismic hazard assessment. The resulting seismogenic source model includes seismic sources defined by geological evidence and active tectonic findings correlated with measured seismicity patterns. A total of 234 area sources fully cross-border-harmonized are combined with 778 seismically active faults along with background-smoothed seismicity. Recorded seismicity (both historical and instrumental) provides the input to estimate rates of earthquakes for area sources and background seismicity while geologic slip-rates are used to characterize fault-specific earthquake recurrences. Ultimately, alternative models of intrinsic uncertainties of data, procedures and models are considered when used for calculation of the seismic hazard. At variance to previous models of the EMME region, we provide a homogeneous seismic source model representing a consistent basis for the next generation of seismic hazard models within the region.

The application of palaeolandsurface analysis to the study of recent tectonics in central Italy

Abstract The analysis of remnant landsurfaces was carried out on the ranges surrounding three intermontane basins located in the central and southern Apennines. All three basins developed during the Pliocene and Quaternary, but each had a different geological, geomor-phological and structural setting. Landsurfaces taken into account were those which aided in the identification of strath terraces situated on the walls of the basins. Recognition and comparison of terrace sequences aided the evaluation of the tectonic behaviour of each area by identifying sectors with differential vertical movements and by assessing the activity of the faults that caused them. The analysis of individual cases also provided useful information on fault activity that could help in devising structural schemes related to active tectonics.

A global probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment from earthquake sources

Abstract Large tsunamis occur infrequently but have the capacity to cause enormous numbers of casualties, damage to the built environment and critical infrastructure, and economic losses. A sound understanding of tsunami hazard is required to underpin management of these risks, and while tsunami hazard assessments are typically conducted at regional or local scales, globally consistent assessments are required to support international disaster risk reduction efforts, and can serve as a reference for local and regional studies. This study presents a global-scale probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA), extending previous global-scale assessments based largely on scenario analysis. Only earthquake sources are considered, as they represent about 80% of the recorded damaging tsunami events. Globally extensive estimates of tsunami run-up height are derived at various exceedance rates, and the associated uncertainties are quantified. Epistemic uncertainties in the exceedance rates of large earthquakes often lead to large uncertainties in tsunami run-up. Deviations between modelled tsunami run-up and event observations are quantified, and found to be larger than suggested in previous studies. Accounting for these deviations in PTHA is important, as it leads to a pronounced increase in predicted tsunami run-up for a given exceedance rate.