Roberto Quinlan

Setting minimum head capsule abundance and taxa deletion criteria in chironomid-based inference models

Criteria for removing training set lakes and taxa in chironomid‐based inference models, due to low abundances, have largely been ad hoc. We used an anoxia inference model and a hypolimnetic oxygen model from south‐central Ontario to determine what effect subfossil head capsule abundance and taxa deletion criteria have on fossil inference statistics. Results from six training set lakes suggest that a minimum abundance of 40–50 head capsules is sufficient for use in inference models, however more diverse samples likely require more than 50 head capsules. Taxa deletion criteria substantially improved the predictive ability of inference models (lowered the root mean squared error of prediction (RMSEP)). The common practice of including taxa with only ≥ 2% abundance in at least two lakes was one of the deletion criteria that much improved inference models. Similar deletion criteria, such as ≥ 2% in at least 3 lakes and ≥ 3% in at least 1 lake, produced comparable improvements (up to 18% reduction in RMSEP).

Quantitative inferences of past hypolimnetic anoxia and nutrient levels from a Canadan Precambrian Shield lake

Paleolimnological analyses were used to infer limnological changes during the past ~ 300 yrs in the west basin of Peninsula Lake, a small (853 ha) Precambrian Shield lake in Ontario, Canada, that has been subjected to moderate cultural disturbances (forest clearance, cottage and resort development). This study represents a pioneering attempt to use sedimentary chironomid assemblages and weighted-averaging models to quantify past hypolimnetic anoxia (expressed as the anoxic factor, AF). Impacts of forest clearance and human land-use on deepwater oxygen availability and surface water quality were assessed by comparing chironomid-inferred AF and diatom-inferred total phosphorus concentration ([TP]) to changes in terrestrial pollen and historical data. This study also discusses the ability of chironomids to quantitatively infer changes in AF.Pre-disturbance chironomid assemblages were stable and dominated by taxa indicative of oxygen-rich hypolimnetic conditions (e.g., Protanypus, Heterotrissocladius, Micropsectra type), while diatoms indicated oligotrophic lake status (diatom inferred [TP] = 5-7 μg·l-1). Chironomids characteristic of lower oxygen availability (e.g., Chironomus, Procladius) increased following land-clearance, road construction, establishment of a grist mill and lakeshore development beginning ca. 1870. Increased abundances of Tanytarsus s. lat., a multigeneric group of mainly littoral chironomids, since 1900, indicated that littoral chironomids may have comprised a greater proportion of fossil assemblages during periods of eutrophication and prolonged anoxia. Abundances of meso-eutrophic diatom taxa (e.g., Fragilaria crotonensis, Asterionella formosa, Aulacoseira ambigua, A. subarctica) increased concurrent with European settlement (ca. 1870) and diatom-inferred [TP] doubled (~ 6-12 μg·l-1), further indicating that naturally-oligotrophic Precambrian Shield lakes were extremely sensitive to initial land-clearance activities.Recent increases in oligotrophic diatom taxa (e.g., Cyclotella stelligera) indicate a shift to more oligotrophic conditions since ca. mid-1960s, with greatest changes since ca. 1980. The chironomids Heterotrissocladius and Micropsectra type also increased at this time suggesting greater deepwater oxygen availability. These recent water-quality improvements, possibly in response to enhanced nutrient removal from detergents and sewage, climate-related reductions in external phosphorus loads, and catchment (but not lake) acidification and reforestation, suggest that habitat for commercially-valuable cold-water fishes has improved in recent decades despite greater recreational lake-use.Paleolimnological assessment of trophic status changes in Peninsula Lake using fossil diatom and chironomid assemblages were in good agreement. Diatom inferences of [TP] and chironomid inferences of AF both suggest that Peninsula Lake was historically oligotrophic, became oligo-mesotrophic after European settlement, and returned to oligotrophy in recent yrs. Chironomid inferences of [TP] consistently underestimated the trophic status of Peninsula Lake, possibly due to its relatively large hypolimnion. These results suggest that AF represents a useful tool for quantitatively reconstructing the past trophic status of deeper, stratified lakes.

Regional assessment of long-term hypolimnetic oxygen changes in Ontario (Canada) shield lakes using subfossil chironomids

Subfossil chironomid assemblages were used to infer long-term water quality changes in south-central Ontario shield lakes, which are currently being impacted by anthropogenic eutrophication, acid rain, and recent climate change. Using a transfer function developed to infer average end-of-summer volume-weighted hypolimnetic oxygen (avg VWHO), a ‘top-bottom’ paleolimnological approach was used to reconstruct pre-industrial (pre-1850) deepwater oxygen conditions. Comparison with present-day (‘top’ surface sediments) chironomid-based inferences of avgVWHO results suggest that hypolimnetic oxygen levels are presently similar to natural, pre-industrial (‘bottom’ sediments) levels in most lakes. Approximately half of the study lakes recorded an increase in hypolimnetic oxygen since the 19th century. Inferred changes in avgVWHO correlate well with our results from another chironomid-based oxygen model which reconstructs the Anoxic Factor (AF). When study lakes are separated according to their hydrological status (i.e., natural versus managed), lakes with a dam at their outlet and seasonally managed lake levels had significantly different changes in avgVWHO compared to lakes with natural hydrology. Lakes with a dam at their outlet generally recorded increases in avgVWHO, while natural hydrology lakes mostly recorded declines. There was no relationship between inferred changes in avgVWHO and the density of cottage and resort development along the shorelines of lakes. Changes in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) possibly related to recent climate changes may also be affecting deepwater oxygen, however patterns of change are very subtle.

The state of Lake Simcoe (Ontario, Canada): the effects of multiple stressors on phosphorus and oxygen dynamics

Abstract Lake Simcoe, the largest lake in southern Ontario outside of the Laurentian Great Lakes, is affected by numerous stressors including eutrophication resulting from total phosphorus (TP) loading, climate change, and invasions of exotic species. We synthesized the long-term responses of Lake Simcoe to these stressors by assessing trends in water quality and biological composition over multiple trophic levels. Evidence for climate change included increasing thermal stability of the lake and changes in subfossil diatom communities over time. Although the deep water dissolved oxygen (O2) minimum has increased significantly since TP load reductions, it is still below estimated historical values and the Lake Simcoe Protection Plan end-of-summer target level of 7 mg O2 L-1. Low deep water O2 concentrations corresponded with a decline in coldwater fish abundance. Since 1980, some nutrient concentrations have decreased (spring TP) while others have increased (silica), but many show no obvious changes (ice-free TP, nitrate, ammonium). Increases in water clarity, combined with declines in chlorophyll a and phytoplankton biovolumes in Cook’s Bay, were temporally consistent with declines in TP loading and the lake-wide establishment of dreissenid mussels as a major component of the Lake Simcoe ecosystem. Using an investigative tool, we identified 2 periods when abrupt shifts potentially occurred in multiple parameters: 1986 and 1995-1997. Additional ecosystem level changes such as declines in zooplankton, declines in offshore benthic invertebrate abundance, and increased nearshore invertebrate abundance likely reflect the effects of invasive species. The interaction of these multiple stressors have significantly altered the Lake Simcoe ecosystem.

Biological and nutrient responses to catchment disturbance and warming in small lakes near the Alaskan tundra–taiga boundary

Understanding effects of recent climate warming and changes in catchment conditions on nutrient cycling and the biology of shallow subarctic lakes is necessary to predict their evolution. Here, we use multiple analytical methods on sediment cores to identify effects of change in catchment conditions on nutrient availability and biotic assemblages in two subarctic lakes on the Seward Peninsula (Alaska, USA). We compare limnological and biotic responses to flooding and expansion of a thermokarst lake basin (late 1950s), increased shrub growth in the catchment of another lake (since the mid-1980s), and regional warming (since the late 1970s). Among these three environmental drivers, the largest biotic responses occurred because of flooding and expansion of the thermokarst lake. An increase in the nitrogen isotope composition and decline in organic carbon isotope composition in sediments are interpreted to reflect an elevated supply of dissolved inorganic carbon and nitrogen. This was associated with significant shifts in composition of chironomid and diatom assemblages. In contrast, increases in particulate organic carbon and nitrogen from enhanced shrub growth had less influence on the biota. Declines in cold-water biotic indicators typical of warming lakes in Arctic regions occurred several decades after catchment-induced changes to the nutrient supply in both systems. This indicates that initial lake catchment condition may mediate lake-specific changes in nutrient cycling and aquatic productivity within regions undergoing warming.

Comparing different methods of calculating volume-weighted hypolimnetic oxygen (VWHO) in lakes

Abstract.In the limnological literature there is no standard method for calculating hypolimnetic volumes using temperature profile data. Consequently, calculations of hypolimnetic dissolved oxygen concentrations differ based on the method chosen. This study examined the differences in calculations of volume-weighted hypolimnetic oxygen (VWHO) concentrations based on different methodologies and profile sampling resolution. Comparisons of VWHO values indicated that differences among methods were greatest in smaller lakes with less hypolimnetic volume. VWHO calculation methodology based on 1 m resolution for profile sampling, where the hypolimnion is defined as the strata below the lower limit of the thermocline (temperature change < 1°C m−1), produced lower VWHO values compared to other methodologies using coarser (2m) sample resolution and hypolimnetic volume determination based on visually inspecting inflection points of a temperature profile. Differences in calculated VWHO were surprisingly large, highlighting the need for researchers to standardize methodology and sampling resolution used in VWHO calculations. VWHO calculation using a 1 m sampling resolution that defines the hypolimnion as the lower limit of the thermocline is the preferred methodology when VWHO is used as a water quality parameter in assessing the habitat of lake biota sensitive to low VWHO.

Patterns in the limnology of lakes and ponds across multiple local and regional environmental gradients in the eastern Canadian Arctic

Abstract This study examined water chemistry from 113 lakes and ponds across the eastern Canadian Arctic to address the lack of limnological data and understanding of relationships among limnological variables across key local and regional gradients. Environmental and geochemical variables were compared at both the local and regional scale with the use of multivariate analysis. A principal components analysis indicated that there was a primary gradient in temperature, nutrients, and conductivity between sampled regions. In addition, there were significant regional differences observed for nutrients total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP), chlorophyll a, and dissolved major ions determined via canonical variates analysis. Across all regions TN:TP ratios were high, indicating phosphorus limitation, and mid-summer surface water temperature was strongly correlated to dissolved nitrogen concentrations. Local landscape characteristics were also examined, with multiple samples from lakes of varying elevations, surface area, and depth within the same area. Shallow pond systems (<2 m depth) were found to have significantly higher variability for major ions, especially in areas with influences from local geology. Likewise, the concentration of nutrients and ions in ponds were strongly correlated to concentrations of dissolved organic carbon, likely indicating the influence of watershed inputs and resuspended sediments on the limnology of ponds. Although there was higher regional variation in the limnology of pond systems than lakes, the general patterns within each region were similar.

Assessing hypolimnetic oxygen concentrations in Canadian Shield lakes: Deriving management benchmarks using two methods

Abstract The ability to predict hypolimnetic dissolved oxygen concentrations in lakes and to track changes in concentrations over time in response to known environmental stressors is critical for effective lake management. The background concentrations of deepwater oxygen, in particular, provide important management benchmarks for assessing the impact of current and future shoreline residential development on water quality. Background can be defined as the conditions that exist in the absence of, or prior to, human influence. We compare 2 models commonly used to predict end-of-summer, volume-weighted hypolimnetic oxygen (VWHO) concentrations in Canadian Shield lakes. The paleoecological and empirical models are evaluated in their ability to predict present-day VWHO concentrations, and then compared in their predictions of background VWHO concentrations and in predictions of changes in VWHO from background to present-day conditions. The predictive power of the 59-lake paleoecological model (jackknifed r2 = 0.51, RMSEP = 2.18 mg/L) is comparable to other models that have used chironomids to predict the degree of hypolimnetic anoxia in lakes but is lower than that produced by the empirical modelling approach (r2 = 0.87, SE = 1.04 mg/L). However, this discrepancy may be offset by the enhanced realism of the paleoecological model, including its ability to predict declines in VWHO over time. The combined use of the paleoecological and empirical modelling approaches may allow lake managers to examine changes in deepwater oxygen concentrations in response to a single “targeted” stressor (e.g., residential shoreline development) and to multiple environmental stressors (e.g., climate change, hydrological management).

Benthic Macroinvertebrate Communities in Arctic Lakes and Ponds of Central Nunavut, Canada

Abstract The diversity and distribution of aquatic benthic invertebrate communities of 17 lakes and 3 shallow ponds near Iqaluit and Rankin Inlet, Nunavut, Canada, were examined to assess patterns with respect to environmental gradients. Macroinvertebrates were collected using 500 µm mesh D-nets, and collected specimens were identified and enumerated; a total of 40 taxa were identified. Multivariate analyses (Redundancy Analysis) of relative abundance (%) data identified habitat (dominant substrate type), water chemistry, nutrients, and food/productivity (total phosphorus, total nitrogen, sulfate, dissolved oxygen, chlorophyll a), physical characteristics (maximum depth), catchment-related properties (lake elevation), and climate-related properties as significant environmental gradients influencing community composition. Ecosystem-scale lake characteristics had the greatest influence on benthic communities, followed by substrate type; however, there were substantive amounts of community variation influenced by the interaction between lake characteristics, substrate type, and regional differences. A number of environmental variables may have been significant due to differences in their values when comparing Rankin Inlet region sites versus Iqaluit region sites. The results agree with other studies indicating that benthic invertebrate communities are influenced by environmental gradients acting at different scales ranging from local, within-lake scales to large, regional scales.