Roberto Ruiz de Austri

New cosmological and experimental constraints on the CMSSM

We analyze the implications of several recent cosmological and experimental measurements for the mass spectra of the Constrained MSSM (CMSSM). We compute the relic abundance of the neutralino and compare the new cosmologically expected and excluded mass ranges with those ruled out by the final LEP bounds on the lightest chargino and Higgs masses, with those excluded by current experimental values of BR(B→Xsγ), and with those favored by the recent measurement of the anomalous magnetic moment of the muon. We find that for tan β45 there remains relatively little room for the mass spectra to be consistent with the interplay of the several constraints. On the other hand, at larger values of tan β the decreasing mass of the pseudoscalar Higgs gives rise to a wide resonance in the neutralino WIMP pair-annihilation, whose position depends on the ratio of top and bottom quark masses. As a consequence, the cosmologically expected regions consistent with other constraints often grow significantly and generally shift towards superpartner masses in the TeV range.

A Markov chain Monte Carlo analysis of the CMSSM

We perform a comprehensive exploration of the Constrained MSSM parameter space employing a Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique and a Bayesian analysis. We compute superpartner masses and other collider observables, as well as a cold dark matter abundance, and compare them with experimental data. We include uncertainties arising from theoretical approximations as well as from residual experimental errors of relevant Standard Model parameters. We delineate probability distributions of the CMSSM parameters, the collider and cosmological observables as well as a dark matter direct detection cross section. The 68% probability intervals of the CMSSM parameters are: 0.52TeV < m1/2 < 1.26TeV, m0 < 2.10TeV, ?0.34TeV < A0 < 2.41TeV and 38.5 < tan ? < 54.6. Generally, large fractions of high probability ranges of the superpartner masses will be probed at the LHC. For example, we find that the probability of m < 2.7TeV is 78%, of mR < 2.5TeV is 85% and of m?1? < 0.8TeV is 65%. As regards the other observables, for example at 68% probability we find 3.5 ? 10?9 < BR(Bs??+??) < 1.7 ? 10?8, 1.9 ? 10?10 < ?a?SUSY < 9.9 ? 10?10 and 1 ? 10?10?pb < ?SIp < 1 ? 10?8?pb for direct WIMP detection. We highlight a complementarity between LHC and WIMP dark matter searches in exploring the CMSSM parameter space. We further expose a number of correlations among the observables, in particular between BR(Bs??+??) and BR(?Xs?) or ?SIp. Once SUSY is discovered, this and other correlations may prove helpful in distinguishing the CMSSM from other supersymmetric models. We investigate the robustness of our results in terms of the assumed ranges of CMSSM parameters and the effect of the (g?2)? anomaly which shows some tension with the other observables. We find that the results for m0, and the observables which strongly depend on it, are sensitive to our assumptions, while our conclusions for the other variables are robust.

The Impact of priors and observables on parameter inferences in the Constrained MSSM

We use a newly released version of the SuperBayeS code to analyze the impact of the choice of priors and the influence of various constraints on the statistical conclusions for the preferred values of the parameters of the Constrained MSSM. We assess the effect in a Bayesian framework and compare it with an alternative likelihood-based measure of a profile likelihood. We employ a new scanning algorithm (MultiNest) which increases the computational efficiency by a factor ~ 200 with respect to previously used techniques. We demonstrate that the currently available data are not yet sufficiently constraining to allow one to determine the preferred values of CMSSM parameters in a way that is completely independent of the choice of priors and statistical measures. While B R ( ? Xs?) generally favors large m0, this is in some contrast with the preference for low values of m0 and m1/2 that is almost entirely a consequence of a combination of prior effects and a single constraint coming from the anomalous magnetic moment of the muon, which remains somewhat controversial. Using an information-theoretical measure, we find that the cosmological dark matter abundance determination provides at least 80% of the total constraining power of all available observables. Despite the remaining uncertainties, prospects for direct detection in the CMSSM remain excellent, with the spin-independent neutralino-proton cross section almost guaranteed above ?SIp 10-10pb, independently of the choice of priors or statistics. Likewise, gluino and lightest Higgs discovery at the LHC remain highly encouraging. While in this work we have used the CMSSM as particle physics model, our formalism and scanning technique can be readily applied to a wider class of models with several free parameters.

Implications for the Constrained MSSM from a new prediction for b to s gamma

We re-examine the properties of the Constrained MSSM in light of updated constraints, paying particular attention to the impact of the recent substantial shift in the Standard Model prediction for → Xsγ. With the help of a Markov Chain Monte Carlo scanning technique, we vary all relevant parameters simultaneously and derive Bayesian posterior probability maps. We find that the case of μ > 0 remains favored, and that for μ < 0 it is considerably more difficult to find a good global fit to current constraints. In both cases we find a strong preference for a focus point region. This leads to improved prospects for detecting neutralino dark matter in direct searches, while superpartner searches at the LHC become more problematic, especially when μ < 0. In contrast, prospects for exploring the whole mass range of the lightest Higgs boson at the Tevatron and the LHC remain very good, which should, along with dark matter searches, allow one to gain access to the otherwise experimentally challenging focus point region. An alternative measure of the mean quality-of-fit which we also employ implies that present data are not yet constraining enough to draw more definite conclusions. We also comment on the dependence of our results on the choice of priors and on some other assumptions.

Global Fits of the cMSSM and NUHM including the LHC Higgs discovery and new XENON100 constraints

We present global fits of the constrained Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (cMSSM) and the Non-Universal Higgs Model (NUHM), including the most recent CMS constraint on the Higgs boson mass, 5.8 fb?1 integrated luminosity null Supersymmetry searches by ATLAS, the new LHCb measurement of BR(s ? ?+??) and the 7-year WMAP dark matter relic abundance determination. We include the latest dark matter constraints from the XENON100 experiment, marginalising over astrophysical and particle physics uncertainties. We present Bayesian posterior and profile likelihood maps of the highest resolution available today, obtained from up to 350M points. We find that the new constraint on the Higgs boson mass has a dramatic impact, ruling out large regions of previously favoured cMSSM and NUHM parameter space. In the cMSSM, light sparticles and predominantly gaugino-like dark matter with a mass of a few hundred GeV are favoured. The NUHM exhibits a strong preference for heavier sparticle masses and a Higgsino-like neutralino with a mass of 1 TeV. The future ton-scale XENON1T direct detection experiment will probe large portions of the currently favoured cMSSM and NUHM parameter space. The LHC operating at 14 TeV collision energy will explore the favoured regions in the cMSSM, while most of the regions favoured in the NUHM will remain inaccessible. Our best-fit points achieve a satisfactory quality-of-fit, with p-values ranging from 0.21 to 0.35, so that none of the two models studied can be presently excluded at any meaningful significance level.

Gravitino dark matter in the constrained minimal supersymmetric standard model with improved constraints from big bang nucleosynthesis

In the framework of the Constrained MSSM we re--examine the gravitino as the lightest superpartner and a candidate for cold dark matter in the Universe. Unlike in other recent studies, we include both a thermal contribution to its relic population from scatterings in the plasma and a non--thermal one from neutralino or stau decays after freeze--out. Relative to a previous analysis [1] we update, extend and considerably improve our treatment of constraints from observed light element abundances on additional energy released during BBN in association with late gravitino production. Assuming the gravitino mass in the GeV to TeV range, and for natural ranges of other supersymmetric parameters, the neutralino region is excluded, while for smaller values of the gravitino mass it becomes allowed again. The gravitino relic abundance is consistent with observational constraints on cold dark matter from BBN and CMB in some well defined domains of the stau region but, in most cases, only due to a dominant contribution of the thermal population. This implies, depending on the gravitino mass, a large enough reheating temperature. If

Complementarity of Dark Matter Direct Detection Targets

\mgravitino>1

Global fits of the cMSSM including the first LHC and XENON100 data

GeV then

Challenges of Profile Likelihood Evaluation in Multi-Dimensional SUSY Scans

T_R>10^7

On the detectability of the CMSSM light Higgs boson at the Tevatron

GeV, if allowed by BBN and other constraints but, for light gravitinos, if