Roberto Telleria

Agricultural Productivity in the WANA Region

The interest of governments, international organizations, NGOs and the general public has recently been aroused by studies considering the use of existing agricultural technology, the use of innovations in such technology and the production of agricultural goods. The attention received by such studies has grown as a result of an unprecedented wave of trade liberalization in the world (involving bilateral, regional and multilateral trade-integration processes), coupled with concerns over food security, high rates of population growth and the use of limited and frequently degraded natural resources. In this context, the Malmquist Index, used to measure agricultural productivity, is a powerful tool, providing insights into whether or not a country is approaching what may be termed “best practice” by using and disseminating existing technology (efficiency change), and/or by innovating technology (technical change). Using the Malmquist Index on a sample of 12 countries within West Asia and North Africa (WANA) indicated that, between 1961 and 1997, Turkey, Tunisia, Syria and Algeria (in that order) were the “most productive” countries. Following them, in terms of agricultural productivity, were Iran, Egypt, Jordan and Morocco, while Pakistan, Sudan, Yemen and Ethiopia were the “least productive” countries of the 12 considered. Recurring negative results, with respect to both technical change and efficiency change, in Ethiopia, Sudan, Pakistan and Yemen, suggest that governments and national and international organizations and research institutions should make greater efforts to strengthen agricultural research and extension services if food security and competitiveness are to be improved.

Advancing the climate data driven crop-modeling studies in the dry areas of Northern Syria and Lebanon: An important first step for assessing impact of future climate

Inter-annual and seasonal variability in climatic parameters, most importantly rainfall, have potential to cause climate-induced risk in long-term crop production. Short-term field studies do not capture the full nature of such risk and the extent to which modifications to crop, soil and water management recommendations may be made to mitigate the extent of such risk. Crop modeling studies driven by long-term daily weather data can predict the impact of climate-induced risk on crop growth and yield however, the availability of long-term daily weather data can present serious constraints to the use of crop models. To tackle this constraint, two weather generators namely, LARS-WG and MarkSim, were evaluated in order to assess their capabilities of reproducing frequency distributions, means, variances, dry spell and wet chains of observed daily precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, and solar radiation for the eight locations across cropping areas of Northern Syria and Lebanon. Further, the application of generated long-term daily weather data, with both weather generators, in simulating barley growth and yield was also evaluated. We found that overall LARS-WG performed better than MarkSim in generating daily weather parameters and in 50 years continuous simulation of barley growth and yield. Our findings suggest that LARS-WG does not necessarily require long-term e.g., >30 years observed weather data for calibration as generated results proved to be satisfactory with >10 years of observed data except in area with higher altitude. Evaluating these weather generators and the ability of generated weather data to perform long-term simulation of crop growth and yield is an important first step to assess the impact of future climate on yields, and to identify promising technologies to make agricultural systems more resilient in the given region.

Decadal analysis of impact of future climate on wheat production in dry Mediterranean environment: A case of Jordan

Different aspects of climate change, such as increased temperature, changed rainfall and higher atmospheric CO2 concentration, all have different effects on crop yields. Process-based crop models are the most widely used tools for estimating future crop yield responses to climate change. We applied APSIM crop simulation model in a dry Mediterranean climate with Jordan as sentinel site to assess impact of climate change on wheat production at decadal level considering two climate change scenarios of representative concentration pathways (RCP) viz., RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Impact of climatic variables alone was negative on grain yield but this adverse effect was negated when elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations were also considered in the simulations. Crop cycle of wheat was reduced by a fortnight for RCP4.5 scenario and by a month for RCP8.5 scenario at the approach of end of the century. On an average, a grain yield increase of 5 to 11% in near future i.e., 2010s-2030s decades, 12 to 16% in mid future i.e., 2040s-2060s decades and 9 to 16% in end of century period can be expected for moderate climate change scenario (RCP4.5) and 6 to 15% in near future, 13 to 19% in mid future and 7 to 20% increase in end of century period for a drastic climate change scenario (RCP8.5) based on different soils. Positive impact of elevated CO2 is more pronounced in soils with lower water holding capacity with moderate increase in temperatures. Elevated CO2 had greater positive effect on transpiration use efficiency (TUE) than negative effect of elevated mean temperatures. The change in TUE was in near perfect direct relationship with elevated CO2 levels (R2>0.99) and every 100-ppm atmospheric CO2 increase resulted in TUE increase by 2kgha-1mm-1. Thereby, in this environment yield gains are expected in future and farmers can benefit from growing wheat.

The role of agriculture for economic development and gender in iraq: a computable general equilibrium model approach

ABSTRACT:This paper analyzes the extent to which productivity-driven growth in agricultural subsectors might contribute to accelerating economywide growth, raising household incomes, and affecting household income distribution. The findings show that raising agricultural productivity according to the Iraqi National Development Plan could more than double the average agricultural growth rates and add an average of 0.7 percent each year to economywide GDP in the period 2013–2017. As a consequence, the economy would not only diversify into agriculture, but agricultural growth would also lift growth in the food processing and service sectors. Household incomes could rise by an additional 3.3 percent on average during the simulation period, compared with a situation in which the yield targets are not achieved. This rise in household incomes would benefit the poorest households and female-headed urban households the most. The following policy priorities to ensure that such positive outcomes materialize: First, achieving the yield targets for wheat and for fruits and vegetables will provide the most growth and income enhancement. Therefore, increasing agricultural productivity in these sectors should be a priority. To achieve sustainable yield improvements would involve improved agricultural technology and management, including improved soil watering and nutrient management practices, new agricultural technology for harvesting and postharvest processing, and improved seed varieties. They also include improved water harvesting, greater irrigation efficiency, and expanded implementation of modern irrigation projects—with particular emphasis on modern drip and spray irrigation systems that rely on solar power. These steps would be part of an overall effort to optimally exploit water resources and address issues of water. Second, the success of efforts to rapidly accelerate agricultural growth will critically depend on whether or not additional agricultural produce can be marketed efficiently domestically and compete with imports. The results of this study show that this will be particularly important for fruits and vegetables. To support farmers and traders in this process, improving infrastructure and market information systems will be important for market access and to provide actors along the supply chain with useful information about prices and marketing opportunities. Another type of policy that would support a rapid increase in agricultural production is trade facilitation. This category includes measures to reduce the transaction costs related to international trade, including excessive documentation requirements, authorizations from multiple agencies, unclear or subjective criteria for the application of duties, and delays and uncertainties related to customs clearance.