Robin Cowan

Sprayed to Death: Path Dependence, Lock-In and Pest Control Strategies

Theoretical literature on the economics of technology has emphasized the effects on technological trajectories of positive feedbacks. In a competition among technologies that all perform a similar function, the presence of increasing returns to adoptions can force all but one technology from the market. Furthermore, the victor need not be the superior technology. This paper provides an empirical study of one technological competition which illuminates this theoretical work. It uses theoretical results to explain why chemical control of agricultural pests remains the dominant technology in spite of many claims that it is inferior to its main competitor, integrated pest management. Copyright 1996 by Royal Economic Society.

Escaping lock-in: The case of the electric vehicle☆

The study addresses the issue of technological “lock-in” and the possibilities of escape from it. Earlier literature on technological lock-in has tended to focus on intraindustry sources of positive feedbacks that are at the core of the technological lock-in phenomena. This study draws attention to the importance of interindustry sources in contributing to technological lock-in. Several possible avenues of escape from lock-in are discussed: crisis in existing technology, regulation, technological breakthroughs, changes in taste, emergence of niche markets, and new scientific results. The study includes a brief history of the competition among automobile technologies. The analysis of the current state of the electric vehicle, its technology, and the surrounding supporting industries and infrastructures is relatively pessimistic about a rapid transition away from the internal combustion engine technological lock-in. However, regulation could create enough niche markets so that some self-reinforcing processes would become possible. In this way, the electric vehicle might emerge as a visible part of the automobile market.

Tortoises and Hares: Choice among Technologies of Unknown Merit

Recent work in the area of competing technologies and increasing returns has largely been concerned with the effectiveness of the market in delivering optimal outcomes. The existence of inefficient market outcomes suggests that there might be a place for intervention in the technology choice process. This paper develops a model of sequential choice in which the choice process is subject to centralized control. The model is used to show that intervention can increase the expected present value of the technology adoption process. It remains, however, that one technology, and not necessarily the best, will come to dominate the market. Copyright 1991 by Royal Economic Society.

Knowledge Dynamics in a Network Industry

In this paper, we model the impact of networks on knowledge growth in an innovating industry. Specifically, we compare two mediums of knowledge exchange: random interaction, and the case in which interaction occurs on a fixed architecture. In a simulation study, we investigate how the medium of knowledge exchange contributes to knowledge growth under different scenarios related to the industrys innovative potential. We measure innovative potential by considering the extent to which knowledge can be codified, and the available technological opportunities. Our results tend to support the conjecture that spatial clustering generates higher long-run knowledge growth rates in industries characterized by highly tacit knowledge, while the opposite is true when the degree of codification is important.

Quandaries in the Economics of Dual Technologies and Spillovers from Military to Civilian Research and Development

Abstract In this paper we argue that the ‘standard’ view of the relationship between military and civilian technology is too simple and cannot account for the variety of historical experiences. In order to understand this relationship, attention must be paid to two things: that technologies have a lifecycle, in different parts of which different types of learning are important; and that the relationship between military and civilian sectors will change depending on the nature of the technology involved, in particular whether it is a process or a product technology. In addition, the standard view does not pay heed to the fact that there are specific organizational requirements to realize any potential cross-benefits. We describe a framework with which to analyse the various features of the relationship taking into account these considerations.

The Joint Dynamics of Networks and Knowledge

In this paper the evolution of networks is studied in an environment where innovation takes place as a result of agents bringing together their knowledge endowments. Agents freely form pairs that must constitute a stable matching in which the rankings are made on the basis of the innovative ability of any possible pair. Once innovation has taken place the new knowledge generated is allocated to the individuals as a function of their joint profile and the process is iterated. We study the properties of the dynamic network formed by these interactions, and the resultant knowledge dynamics. We find evidence that the substitution patterns between different types of knowledge and the details of the way partners pool their knowledge is of great importance in determining first the emergence of expertise of a certain type in the economy, and second the stability of a number of network structures.

Knowledge Creation, Knowledge Diffusion and Network Structure

This paper models knowledge creation and diffusion as processes involving many agents located on a network. Knowledge diffusion takes place when an agent broadcasts his knowledge to the agents to whom he is directly connected. Knowledge creation arises when agents receive new knowledge which is combined with their existing knowledge stocks. Thus both creation and diffusion are network-dependent activities. This paper examines the relationship between network architecture and aggregate knowledge levels. We find that knowledge growth is fastest in a “small world”, that is, when the underlying network structure is relatively cliquish (dense at a local level) yet has short paths. This corresponds to a locally-connected graph which includes a few long-distance connections or shortcuts.

On substitution of intellectual property and free disclosure: an analysis of R&D strategies in software technologies

Major firms have joined the open-source movement and have chosen to apply that development methodology in their projects. Our model examines the links between openness and innovation in software technologies by revealing how disclosure affects the technical quality of computer applications and the profits of myopic and far-sighted firms. The model analyzes the degree of disclosure that should be implemented to optimize profits in various market scenarios. Further, we reveal how social welfare of users (in terms of technical quality of the products that they implement) relates to profit-maximization decisions of the firm. If revenue is unresponsive to openness or slowly responds to it, the firm would prefer to leave the source code proprietary. Otherwise, if the market conditions change and the effective revenue increases rapidly enough with openness, the optimal strategy changes from entirely proprietary to some open-source development. †E-mail: r.cowan@merit.unimaas.nl

On Clustering in the Location of R&D: Statics and Dynamics

Empirical analyses of research and development find strong evidence that these activities tend to cluster geographically. Clusters are thought to emerge from the presence of localized positive externalities. This paper presents a model of this clustering behaviour. We find that phase changes in clustering exist both as the strength of local externalities changes and as the degree of heterogeneity among firms changes. The dynamics of the system are examined as it responds to shocks to the size of the market for RD followed by a slow re-agglomeration process as producers change their spatial decisions to lower the costs of the new production level.

If the alliance fits

Network formation is often said to be driven by social capital considerations. A typical pattern observed in the empirical data on strategic alliances is that of small-world networks: dense subgroups of firms interconnected by (few) clique-spanning ties. The typical argument is that there is social capital value both to being embedded in a dense cluster, and to bridging disconnected clusters. In this chapter we develop and analyze a simple model of joint innovation where we are able to reproduce these features, based solely on the assumption that successful partnering demands some intermediate amount of technological similarity between the partners.