Robin Lardner

Hindcast of oil-spill pollution during the Lebanon crisis in the Eastern Mediterranean, July–August 2006

MOON (Mediterranean Operational Oceanography Network http://www.moon-oceanforecasting.eu) provides near-real-time information on oil-spill detection (ocean color and SAR) and predictions [ocean forecasts (MFS and CYCOFOS) and oil-spill predictions (MEDSLIK)]. We employ this system to study the Lebanese oil-pollution crisis in summer 2006 and thus to assist regional and local decision makers in Europe, regionally and locally. The MEDSLIK oil-spill predictions obtained using CYCOFOS high-resolution ocean fields are compared with those obtained using lower-resolution MFS hydrodynamics, and both are validated against satellite observations. The predicted beached oil distributions along the Lebanese and Syrian coasts are compared with in situ observations. The oil-spill predictions are able to simulate the northward movement of the oil spill, with the CYCOFOS predictions being in better agreement with satellite observations. Among the free MEDSLIK parameters tested in the sensitivity experiments, the drift factor appears to be the most relevant to improve the quality of the results.

Modelling of oil spills in confined maritime basins: The case for early response in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea

Oil spill models are combined with bathymetric, meteorological, oceanographic, and geomorphological data to model a series of oil spill accidents in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea. A total of 104 oil spill simulations, computed for 11 different locations in the Levantine Basin, show that oil slicks will reach the coast of Cyprus in four (4) to seven (7) days in summer conditions. Oil slick trajectories are controlled by prevailing winds and current eddies. Based on these results, we support the use of chemical dispersants in the very few hours after large accidental oil spills. As a corollary, we show shoreline susceptibility to vary depending on: a) differences in coastline morphology and exposure to wave action, b) the existence of uplifted wave-cut platforms, coastal lagoons and pools, and c) the presence of tourist and protected environmental areas. Mitigation work should take into account the relatively high susceptibility of parts of the Eastern Mediterranean.

Multidisciplinary oil spill modeling to protect coastal communities and the environment of the Eastern Mediterranean Sea

We present new mathematical and geological models to assist civil protection authorities in the mitigation of potential oil spill accidents in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea. Oil spill simulations for 19 existing offshore wells were carried out based on novel and high resolution bathymetric, meteorological, oceanographic, and geomorphological data. The simulations show a trend for east and northeast movement of oil spills into the Levantine Basin, affecting the coastal areas of Israel, Lebanon and Syria. Oil slicks will reach the coast in 1 to 20 days, driven by the action of the winds, currents and waves. By applying a qualitative analysis, seabed morphology is for the first time related to the direction of the oil slick expansion, as it is able to alter the movement of sea currents. Specifically, the direction of the major axis of the oil spills, in most of the cases examined, is oriented according to the prevailing azimuth of bathymetric features. This work suggests that oil spills in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea should be mitigated in the very few hours after their onset, and before wind and currents disperse them. We explain that protocols should be prioritized between neighboring countries to mitigate any oil spills.

AN OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN GLOBAL OCEAN OBSERVING SYSTEM FOR THE EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN LEVANTINE BASIN: THE CYPRUS COASTAL OCEAN FORECASTING AND OBSERVING SYSTEM

The countries surrounding the Mediterranean Sea have joined together in several multinational initiatives to conduct long-term, integrated, operational oceanographic observations and modeling of this region. This paper discusses some of these initiatives and the country members involved in them. Particular emphasis is given to long-term observing systems and modeling conducted in the Eastern Mediterranean Levantine Basin and the region around the island of Cyprus. A complete operational oceanographic forecasting and observing system has been developed in Cyprus, in operation since 2002. The system, Cyprus Coastal Ocean Forecasting and Observing System (CYCOFOS), is a component of the Global Ocean Observing System and its European modules. CYCOFOS and its design, development and parameters are detailed.

Modelling oil plumes from subsurface spills

An oil plume model to simulate the behavior of oil from spills located at any given depth below the sea surface is presented, following major modifications to a plume model developed earlier by Malačič (2001) and drawing on ideas in a paper by Yapa and Zheng (1997). The paper presents improvements in those models and numerical testing of the various parameters in the plume model. The plume model described in this paper is one of the numerous modules of the well-established MEDSLIK oil spill model. The deep blowout scenario of the MEDEXPOL 2013 oil spill modelling exercise, organized by REMPEC, has been applied using the improved oil plume module of the MEDSLIK model and inter-comparison with results having the oil spill source at the sea surface are discussed.

Cyprus coastal ocean forecasting and observing system

A complete operational oceanographic forecasting and observing system has been developed in Cyprus, covering the coastal and open deep sea areas around Cyprus and the Levantine Basin, and has been operational since early 2002. The system is called CYCOFOS—Cyprus Coastal Ocean Forecasting and Observing System—and integrates the main features, which are required in GOOS, EuroGOOS and MedGOOS design. CYCOFOS is a result of several years of oceanographic research activities carried out in the framework of EU projects such as the MFSPP, MAMA and MedGLOSS. The CYCOFOS at present consists of several modules that provide regular NRT oceanographic information, both to local and sub-regional end-users in the Levantine Basin.

Numerical modeling of oil pollution in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea

This chapter presents a summary of major applications in numerical oil spill predictions for the Eastern Mediterranean Sea. Since the trilateral agreement between Cyprus, Egypt, and Israel back in 1997, under the framework of the subregional contingency plan for preparedness and response to major oil spill pollution incidents in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, several oil spill models have been implemented during real oil pollution accidents and after oil spills that were detected from satellite remote sensing SAR data. In addition, several projects cofinanced by the European Commission addressed particularly issues with oil spill modeling, taking the advantage of developments in operational oceanography, as well as collaboration with the Mediterranean Oceanographic Network for Global Ocean Observing System (MONGOOS), with the European Maritime Safety Agency CleanSeaNet (EMSA-CSN), and Regional Marine Pollution Emergency Response Centre for the Mediterranean Sea (REMPEC). Major oil pollution incidents in the Eastern Mediterranean and the oil spill modeling applications carried out are summarized in this work. Three well-established operational oil spill modeling systems – two of them characterized by different numerical tools MEDSLIK, MEDSLIK II, and the POSEIDON oil spill models – are described in terms of their applicability to real oil spill pollution events, the Lebanon oil pollution crisis in summer 2006, the case Costa Concordia accident, and the spill event associated with the collision of two cargo vessels in the North Aegean Sea in June 2009. Finally, an overview of the present-day capability of Eastern Mediterranean countries in oil spill modeling is provided in this chapter.