Robyn A. North

Clinical risk prediction for pre-eclampsia in nulliparous women: development of model in international prospective cohort

Objectives To develop a predictive model for pre-eclampsia based on clinical risk factors for nulliparous women and to identify a subgroup at increased risk, in whom specialist referral might be indicated. Design Prospective multicentre cohort. Setting Five centres in Auckland, New Zealand; Adelaide, Australia; Manchester and London, United Kingdom; and Cork, Republic of Ireland. Participants 3572 “healthy” nulliparous women with a singleton pregnancy from a large international study; data on pregnancy outcome were available for 3529 (99%). Main outcome measure Pre-eclampsia defined as ≥140 mm Hg or diastolic blood pressure ≥90 mm Hg, or both, on at least two occasions four hours apart after 20 weeks’ gestation but before the onset of labour, or postpartum, with either proteinuria or any multisystem complication. Preterm pre-eclampsia was defined as women with pre-eclampsia delivered before 37+0 weeks’ gestation. In the stepwise logistic regression the comparison group was women without pre-eclampsia. Results Of the 3529 women, 186 (5.3%) developed pre-eclampsia, including 47 (1.3%) with preterm pre-eclampsia. Clinical risk factors at 14-16 weeks’ gestation were age, mean arterial blood pressure, body mass index (BMI), family history of pre-eclampsia, family history of coronary heart disease, maternal birth weight, and vaginal bleeding for at least five days. Factors associated with reduced risk were a previous single miscarriage with the same partner, taking at least 12 months to conceive, high intake of fruit, cigarette smoking, and alcohol use in the first trimester. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC), under internal validation, was 0.71. Addition of uterine artery Doppler indices did not improve performance (internal validation AUC 0.71). A framework for specialist referral was developed based on a probability of pre-eclampsia generated by the model of at least 15% or an abnormal uterine artery Doppler waveform in a subset of women with single risk factors. Nine per cent of nulliparous women would be referred for a specialist opinion, of whom 21% would develop pre-eclampsia. The relative risk for developing pre-eclampsia and preterm pre-eclampsia in women referred to a specialist compared with standard care was 5.5 and 12.2, respectively. Conclusions The ability to predict pre-eclampsia in healthy nulliparous women using clinical phenotype is modest and requires external validation in other populations. If validated, it could provide a personalised clinical risk profile for nulliparous women to which biomarkers could be added. Trial registration ACTRN12607000551493.

Spontaneous preterm birth and small for gestational age infants in women who stop smoking early in pregnancy: prospective cohort study

Objectives To compare pregnancy outcomes between women who stopped smoking in early pregnancy and those who either did not smoke in pregnancy or continued to smoke. Design Prospective cohort study. Setting Auckland, New Zealand and Adelaide, Australia. Participants 2504 nulliparous women participating in the Screening for Pregnancy Endpoints (SCOPE) study grouped by maternal smoking status at 15 (±1) week’s gestation. Main outcome measures Spontaneous preterm birth and small for gestational age infants (birth weight <10th customised centile). We compared odds of these outcomes between stopped smokers and non-smokers, and between current smokers and stopped smokers, using logistic regression, adjusting for demographic and clinical risk factors. Results 80% (n=1992) of women were non-smokers, 10% (n=261) had stopped smoking, and 10% (n=251) were current smokers. We noted no differences in rates of spontaneous preterm birth (4%, n=88 v 4%, n=10; adjusted odds ratio 1.03, 95% confidence interval l0.49 to 2.18; P=0.66) or small for gestational age infants (10%, n=195 v 10%, n=27; 1.06, 0.67 to 1.68; P=0.8) between non-smokers and stopped smokers. Current smokers had higher rates of spontaneous preterm birth (10%, n=25 v 4%, n=10; 3.21, 1.42 to 7.23; P=0.006) and small for gestational age infants (17%, n=42 v 10%, n=27; 1.76, 1.03 to 3.02; P=0.03) than stopped smokers. Conclusion In women who stopped smoking before 15 weeks’ gestation, rates of spontaneous preterm birth and small for gestational age infants did not differ from those in non-smokers, indicating that these severe adverse effects of smoking may be reversible if smoking is stopped early in pregnancy.

Perinatal morbidity in chronic hypertension.

Objective To investigate if chronic hypertension in the absence of superimposed pre‐eclampsia is associated with increased perinatal morbidity (especially small for gestational age babies and preterm deliveries) when compared to the general obstetric population.

Pregnancy outcomes and cardiac complications in women with mechanical, bioprosthetic and homograft valves

Objectives Firstly, to compare pregnancy outcomes and cardiac complications in women with: 1. either mechanical or bioprosthetic valves at the mitral site; 2. mechanical valves treated with warfarin or subcutaneous heparin. Secondly, to determine pregnancy and cardiac outcomes in women with aortic homograft valves.

Long-Term Survival and Valve-Related Complications in Young Women With Cardiac Valve Replacements

BACKGROUND The type of cardiac valve replacement associated with the lowest health risks for young women who may undergo pregnancies is unknown. We investigated which valve type was associated with greatest patient and valve survival and the effect of pregnancy on valve loss. METHODS AND RESULTS In this retrospective study, all women 12 to 35 years old who underwent valve replacements between 1972 and 1992 at Greenlane Hospital were identified, and follow-up was available in 93%. The 232 women were followed up for 1499 patient-years. Ten-year survival of women with mechanical (n=178), bioprosthetic (n=73), and homograft (n=72) valves was 70% (95% CI, 59% to 83%), 84% (95% CI, 72% to 99%), and 96% (95% CI, 91% to 100%), P=0.002. After adjustment for confounding variables, the relative risk (RR) of death with mechanical compared with bioprosthetic valves was 2.17 (95% CI, 0.78 to 5.88). Thromboembolic events occurred in 45% of women with mechanical valves within 5 years, compared with 13% with bioprosthetic valves, P=0.0001. Valve loss at 10 years was higher in bioprosthetic valves [82% (95% CI, 62% to 92%)] than in mechanical [29% (95% CI, 17% to 39%)] or homograft [28% (95% CI, 12% to 41%)] valves, P=0.0001. Pregnancy was not associated with increased bioprosthetic (RR, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.68 to 1. 35), homograft (RR, 0.65; 95% CI, 0.37 to 1.13), or mechanical (RR, 0.54; 95% CI, 0.27 to 1.08) valve loss. CONCLUSIONS Although 10-year valve survival was greater with mechanical than bioprosthetic valves, mechanical valves may be associated with reduced patient survival in young women. Thromboembolic complications, often with long-term sequelae, were common with mechanical valves. Pregnancy did not increase structural deterioration or reduce survival of bioprosthetic valves.

Mid-trimester uterine artery Doppler screening as a predictor of adverse pregnancy outcome in high-risk women.

Objective To assess the value of uterine artery Doppler ultrasound screening, when performed in a clinical setting, to predict complications of impaired uteroplacental blood flow in high‐risk women.

Maternal complications and pregnancy outcome in women with mechanical prosthetic heart valves treated with enoxaparin

Objective  To determine maternal and fetal outcomes in women with mechanical heart valves managed with therapeutic dose enoxaparin during pregnancy.

Urinary Proteomics for Prediction of Preeclampsia

Preeclampsia is a major determinant of fetal and maternal morbidity and mortality. We used a proteomic strategy to identify urinary biomarkers that predict preeclampsia before the onset of disease. We prospectively collected urine samples from women throughout pregnancy. Samples from gestational weeks 12 to 16 (n=45), 20 (n=50), and 28 (n=18) from women who subsequently had preeclampsia develop were matched to controls (n=86, n=49, and n=17, respectively). We performed capillary electrophoresis online coupled to micro-time-of-flight mass spectrometry. Disease-specific peptide patterns were generated using support vector machine-based software. Candidate biomarkers were sequenced by liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry. From comparison with nonpregnant controls, we defined a panel of 284 pregnancy-specific proteomic biomarkers. Subsequently, we developed a model of 50 biomarkers from specimens obtained at week 28 that was associated with future preeclampsia (classification factor in cases, 1.032±0.411 vs controls, −1.038±0.432; P<0.001). Classification factor increased markedly from week 12 to 16 to 28 in women who subsequently had preeclampsia develop (n=16; from −0.392±0.383 to 1.070±0.383; P<0.001) and decreased slightly in controls (n=16; from −0.647±0.437 to −1.024±0.433; P=0.043). Among the biomarkers are fibrinogen alpha chain, collagen alpha chain, and uromodulin fragments. The markers appear to predict preeclampsia at gestational week 28 with good confidence but not reliably at earlier time points (weeks 12–16 and 20). After prospective validation in other cohorts, these markers may contribute to better prediction, monitoring, and accurate diagnosis of preeclampsia.

Early pregnancy prediction of preeclampsia in nulliparous women, combining clinical risk and biomarkers: the Screening for Pregnancy Endpoints (SCOPE) international cohort study

More than half of all cases of preeclampsia occur in healthy first-time pregnant women. Our aim was to develop a method to predict those at risk by combining clinical factors and measurements of biomarkers in women recruited to the Screening for Pregnancy Endpoints (SCOPE) study of low-risk nulliparous women. Forty-seven biomarkers identified on the basis of (1) association with preeclampsia, (2) a biological role in placentation, or (3) a role in cellular mechanisms involved in the pathogenesis of preeclampsia were measured in plasma sampled at 14 to 16 weeks’ gestation from 5623 women. The cohort was randomly divided into training (n=3747) and validation (n=1876) cohorts. Preeclampsia developed in 278 (4.9%) women, of whom 28 (0.5%) developed early-onset preeclampsia. The final model for the prediction of preeclampsia included placental growth factor, mean arterial pressure, and body mass index at 14 to 16 weeks’ gestation, the consumption of ≥3 pieces of fruit per day, and mean uterine artery resistance index. The area under the receiver operator curve (95% confidence interval) for this model in training and validation cohorts was 0.73 (0.70–0.77) and 0.68 (0.63–0.74), respectively. A predictive model of early-onset preeclampsia included angiogenin/placental growth factor as a ratio, mean arterial pressure, any pregnancy loss <10 weeks, and mean uterine artery resistance index (area under the receiver operator curve [95% confidence interval] in training and validation cohorts, 0.89 [0.78–1.0] and 0.78 [0.58–0.99], respectively). Neither model included pregnancy-associated plasma protein A, previously reported to predict preeclampsia in populations of mixed parity and risk. In nulliparous women, combining multiple biomarkers and clinical data provided modest prediction of preeclampsia. # Novelty and Significance {#article-title-41}More than half of all cases of preeclampsia occur in healthy first-time pregnant women. Our aim was to develop a method to predict those at risk by combining clinical factors and measurements of biomarkers in women recruited to the Screening for Pregnancy Endpoints (SCOPE) study of low-risk nulliparous women. Forty-seven biomarkers identified on the basis of (1) association with preeclampsia, (2) a biological role in placentation, or (3) a role in cellular mechanisms involved in the pathogenesis of preeclampsia were measured in plasma sampled at 14 to 16 weeks’ gestation from 5623 women. The cohort was randomly divided into training (n=3747) and validation (n=1876) cohorts. Preeclampsia developed in 278 (4.9%) women, of whom 28 (0.5%) developed early-onset preeclampsia. The final model for the prediction of preeclampsia included placental growth factor, mean arterial pressure, and body mass index at 14 to 16 weeks’ gestation, the consumption of ≥3 pieces of fruit per day, and mean uterine artery resistance index. The area under the receiver operator curve (95% confidence interval) for this model in training and validation cohorts was 0.73 (0.70–0.77) and 0.68 (0.63–0.74), respectively. A predictive model of early-onset preeclampsia included angiogenin/placental growth factor as a ratio, mean arterial pressure, any pregnancy loss <10 weeks, and mean uterine artery resistance index (area under the receiver operator curve [95% confidence interval] in training and validation cohorts, 0.89 [0.78–1.0] and 0.78 [0.58–0.99], respectively). Neither model included pregnancy-associated plasma protein A, previously reported to predict preeclampsia in populations of mixed parity and risk. In nulliparous women, combining multiple biomarkers and clinical data provided modest prediction of preeclampsia.

Evaluation of a definition of pre‐eclampsia

Objectives To determine: 1. whether an alternative definition of gestational hypertension and pre‐eclampsia stratifies women according to their risk of maternal and fetal complications; 2. whether pregnancy outcome in women with gestational hypertension differs in the presence or absence of ‘+’ proteinuria; and 3. whether a blood pressure rise of ≥ 30/15 mmHg during pregnancy is associated with adverse outcome in women who remain normotensive.