Rocco Scolozzi

Spatial Rule-Based Assessment of Habitat Potential to Predict Impact of Land Use Changes on Biodiversity at Municipal Scale

In human dominated landscapes, ecosystems are under increasing pressures caused by urbanization and infrastructure development. In Alpine valleys remnant natural areas are increasingly affected by habitat fragmentation and loss. In these contexts, there is a growing risk of local extinction for wildlife populations; hence assessing the consequences on biodiversity of proposed land use changes is extremely important. The article presents a methodology to assess the impacts of land use changes on target species at a local scale. The approach relies on the application of ecological profiles of target species for habitat potential (HP) assessment, using high resolution GIS-data within a multiple level framework. The HP, in this framework, is based on a species-specific assessment of the suitability of a site, as well of surrounding areas. This assessment is performed through spatial rules, structured as sets of queries on landscape objects. We show that by considering spatial dependencies in habitat assessment it is possible to perform better quantification of impacts of local-level land use changes on habitats.

Assessing habitat connectivity for land-use planning: a method integrating landscape graphs and Delphi survey

Increasing fragmentation is occurring in most valley floors in Alpine regions, where urbanization and infrastructure development are reducing connectivity among remnant natural areas. This undermines the conservation of alpine biodiversity. Using a landscape graph-based approach, we visualized and assessed the dispersal opportunities for three target species (Rana synk. esculenta, Erinaceus europaeus, Moscardinus avellanarius) on a municipal scale. We considered the barrier effect caused by landscape objects, such as linear infrastructures and artificial land covers. Species-specific barrier effects were estimated through a Delphi survey involving 25 experts. The information collected was then used to draw a landscape graph of local connections and to estimate the functioning of the networks of habitat patches in terms of their capability of sustaining local populations of target species. The methodology was applied in an alpine valley floor in Trentino, northern Italy, and resulted in the mapping of all possible and remnant linkages between habitat patches in its current state. The approach may provide a better qualitative understanding of the impacts of proposed land-use changes, and was found to be particularly helpful in contexts where availability of data is limited.

The anthroposphere as an anticipatory system: Open questions on steering the climate

Climate change research and action counteracting it affect everyone and would involve cross-societal transformations reshaping the anthroposphere in its entirety. Scrutinizing climate-related science and policies, we recognize attempts to steer the evolution of climate according to expected (or modelled) futures. Such attempts would turn the anthroposphere into a large anticipatory system, in which human society seeks to anticipate and, possibly, to govern climate dynamics. The chief aim of this discussion paper is to open a critical debate on the climate change paradigm (CCP) drawing on a strategic and systemic framework grounded in the concept of anticipatory system sensu Rosen (1991). The proposed scheme is ambitiously intended to turn an intricate issue into a complex but structured problem that is to say, to make such complexity clear and manageable. This framework emerges from concepts borrowed from different scientific fields (including future studies and system dynamics) and its background lies in a simple quantitative literature overview, relying upon a broad level of analysis. The proposed framework will assist researchers and policy makers in thinking of CCP in terms of an anticipatory system, and in disentangling its interrelated (and sometimes intricate) aspects. In point of fact, several strategic questions related to CCP were not subjected to an adequate transdisciplinary discussion: what are the interplays between physical processes and social-political interventions, who is the observer (what he/she is looking for), and which paradigm is being used (or who defines the desirable future). The proposed scheme allows to structure such various topics in an arrangement which is easier to communicate, highlighting the linkages in between, and making them intelligible and open to verification and discussion. Furthermore, ideally developments will help scientists and policy makers address the strategic gaps between the evidence-based climatological assessments and the plurality of possible answers as applied to the geopolitical contingencies.

System dynamics education: becoming part of anticipatory systems

– This paper aims to present an overview of deep issues flanking the ideas of system and complexity, and an overview of the mentioned course as a proposal for systems thinking. , – The paper provides a discursive overview of systems and philosophical concepts related to the described course. , – The review offers a perspective of a super-system that includes the students, the lecturers and the context of their interaction, in which one may recognize a relational framework for social learning of a systemic sustainability. , – The overview concerns only the actual intervention in the University of Trento. , – The described concepts and related philosophical discussion may contribute to the integration of system thinking in the future studies. , – The described intervention is a new Italian context and the integration of systems concepts with futures studies seems not to be commonly established.

Future-Labs in the Classroom: The Experience of -skopìa

During the past three years, -skopìa[EDUCATION], the educational branch of the recently established start-up of the University of Trento, -skopìa, has conducted an extensive series of future laboratories in the classroom, working in particular with students aged twelve years old (second year of “medie inferiori”) and fifteen years old (second year of “medie superiori”). Future labs follow an explicit protocol (initial and final tests, three major steps, respectively, focused on the past, the future and the present). Teachers wanting to conduct a lab in their classroom must attend a preliminary training course. Furthermore, all the labs are monitored by -skopìa.

Governing mountain landscapes collectively: local responses to emerging challenges within a systems thinking perspective

ABSTRACT Alpine cultural landscapes are the result of a long process of social-ecological coevolution, and today face dramatic changes and risks, such as depopulation and abandonment of traditional land use. Some communities seem to adapt better and are benefiting from the changes, compared to others, which are losing their population and identity. Historic collective property institutions and traditional ecological knowledge play a key role. The direction of local development appears to be driven by the interaction of three main forces: culture, multiple-level governance and the local economy. We propose a systems thinking approach to unravel the complexities, highlighting causal connections and interdependency. Focusing on two study areas around Alpine forest-pasture ecotones, where the driving forces mentioned have a major impact, we recognised some general structures that can foster a social learning process by merging different sources of knowledge, promoting advanced understanding of their complexity and better strategies responding to emerging challenges.

Assessing ecosystem services and biodiversity tradeoffs across agricultural landscapes in a mountain region

ABSTRACT The ability of agricultural areas to produce non-commodity outputs in addition to food and fiber, i.e. multifunctionality, is increasingly at the core of policies promoting sustainability. Assessing the potential benefits for biodiversity and understanding tradeoffs among multiple ecosystem services (ES) from agricultural areas remain key challenges, especially in mountainous landscapes. Through a case-study approach, we assess the tradeoffs and synergies between the ES associated with agricultural areas. We map and assess the ES provided by seven study areas in northern Italy, aiming to provide guidance on the relationship between the agricultural land use intensity and provision of ES. In total, we performed a quantitative evaluation of 10 ES indicators, followed by their thematic aggregation and correlation analyses to gain a better understanding of the spatial ES tradeoffs. Our findings highlight that the transition to intensive forms of agricultural exploitation, in addition to the loss of habitats, also involves a reduction in cultural services.

Enhancing outdoor recreation and biodiversity through payments for ecosystem services: emerging potentials from selected Natura 2000 sites in Italy

Efforts in preserving natural and seminatural ecosystems and associated ecosystem services are affected by scarce financial resources. Payments for ecosystem services (PES) are increasingly recognised for creating additional funding, as in protected areas, and outdoor recreation is one important ecosystem service that is promising for successfully implementing PES. Therefore, this study aimed to develop and evaluate potentials for PES schemes related to recreational services in Natura 2000 sites. For 10 sites in different Italian regions, the study first assessed the ecosystem service outdoor recreation and analysed managerial and economic aspects of Natura 2000 sites. Then, various options for PES schemes were defined in a participatory process. Furthermore, we developed a dynamic model for evaluating the effects of PES on ecosystems and related recreational ES. Whereas the provision of recreational opportunities was mostly at a high level, the potential demand varied greatly among the sites, depending on the spatial distribution of potential beneficiaries. Moreover, we found great differences in visitation rates and consequently the actual recreational value. The PES schemes included small payments (€1) via mobile phone by visitors, contributions from regional government and tourism businesses, and visitor fees or tourist taxes among others. This study highlights how economic agreements, such as PES schemes, may support funding of Natura 2000 sites for biodiversity conservation by valorising the benefits of recreational ecosystem services; however, further research is needed to evaluate the effectiveness of PES in the long term.

To what extent will climate and land-use change affect EU-28 agriculture? A computable general equilibrium analysis

This paper assesses the structural, joint implications of climate and land-use change on agriculture in the European Union, by means of a computable general equilibrium model of the world economy. The counterfactual simulations are conducted at the year 2050 under the second Shared Socioeconomic Pathway. We find that climate and land-use change are likely to affect agricultural systems very differently across Europe. Northern countries are expected to benefit from climate change impacts, whereas other areas in Europe will suffer negative consequences in terms of reduced agricultural output, real income and welfare. The most vulnerable region is not made of Mediterranean countries, but rather Central Europe. Our results suggest that climate and land-use changes may exacerbate existing disparities within the EU. Therefore, appropriate adaptation strategies and a more flexible land-use are required to limit these negative consequences and possibly exploit the beneficial effects of climate change in some countries.