Roderick G. Eggert

Supply-chain dynamics of tellurium, indium and gallium within the context of PV module manufacturing costs

If humankind is to implement more sustainable energy choices, it will be crucial for energy systems such as photovoltaics (PV) to demonstrate success both soon and over the long-term quest. To that end, both the crystalline silicon and thin-film technologies have made, and continue to make, remarkable strides toward providing solutions that are quickly becoming more competitive against the traditional sources for power generation. But, within the thin-film segment of this industry the highest demonstrated sunlight power conversion efficiencies have thus far come from material sets containing relatively rare constituent elements. These include tellurium in the cadmium telluride technology, and indium and/ or gallium in the CIS/copper indium gallium diselenide and III-V families of technologies. In this paper we show that the current global supply base for these three energy-critical elements is not sufficient for enabling energy-significant levels of PV deployment, but also show that each of the thin-film PV technologies that are described has an ability to absorb potential increases in the price for these constituent element(s). This ability then leads to the possibility that the supply base for each element can be augmented.Given the need for humankind to implement more sustainable energy choices, it is crucial for energy systems such as PV to demonstrate success both soon and over the long-term quest for meaningful deployment. To that end, both the crystalline silicon and thin-film technologies have made, and continue to make, remarkable strides toward providing solutions that are quickly becoming more competitive against the traditional sources for power generation. But, within the thin-film segment of this industry, the highest demonstrated sunlight power conversion efficiencies have thus far come from technologies containing relatively rare constituent elements. These include tellurium in cadmium telluride, and indium and/or gallium in the CIS/ CIGS and III–V families of technologies. In this paper we show that the current global supply base for these three energy-critical elements is not sufficient for enabling energy-significant levels of deployment, but also show that every one of the thin-film PV technologies that we describe has the ability to absorb an increase in the price for each constituent element(s). This ability then leads to the possibility that the supply base for each element can be augmented.

Minerals go critical

The spectre of insecure supplies of some mineral raw materials could hinder the development and deployment of new technology. This Commentary discusses and analyses the reasons behind the potential insecurity, how markets are responding, and what roles government should play.

International mineral economics

This book provides an integrated overview of the concepts important for mineral exploration, mine valuation, mineral market analysis, and international mineral policies. The treatment is interdisciplinary, drawing on the fields of economics, geology, business, and mining engineering. Part I, Economic Geology and Mineral Development, examines the technical concepts important for understanding the geology of ore deposits, the methods of exploration and deposit evaluation, and the activities of mining and mineral processing. Part II, Mineral Economics, focuses on the economic and related concepts important for understanding mineral development, the evaluation of exploration and mining projects, and mineral markets and market models. Finally, Part III, International Mineral Policies, reviews and traces the historical development of the policies of international organizations, the industrialized countries, and the developing countries.

Base and Precious Metals Exploration by Major Corporations

Major private corporations are among the principal actors in the world of mineral exploration. This study analyzes changes in the level and distribution of base and precious metals exploration by a number of large North American and European firms over the last twenty years. It finds that corporate exploration, like other forms of investment, responds to an interplay of economic, political, and technical factors influencing the expected revenues, costs, and risks associated with this activity. The level of exploration expenditure varies to a large degree with changes in overall expected returns, which are strongly influenced by changing mineral prices, discovery rates, and corporate goals such as diversification. The distribution of funds with respect to both commodities and countries tends to vary with changes in relative potential returns. In the first case, relative mineral prices, discovery rates, advances in exploration and production technologies, new exploration models, and corporate goals such as diversification are important determinants of change. In the second case, geologic criteria, particularly recent discoveries in an area, are the most important determinants of change; the importance of government policies and political risks, although not trivial, has been exaggerated. Accordingly, corporate exploration works together with material substitution and other forms of technologic change to offset the cost-increasing effects of mineral resource depletion.

An empirical and conceptual introduction

Abstract Prices and consumption of the major metals are unstable and, moreover, cyclical because of the regularity of instability caused by the strong link between fluctuations in the overall level of economic activity and metal demand. This paper reviews the causes and historical patterns of cyclical instability and compares major metals with gold, energy fuels, industrial minerals, primary commodities and manufactured goods. It finds that metal prices have been more unstable than consumption; that metal prices and consumption were more unstable in the 1970s than in either the 1960s or 1980s; that the synchronization from metal to metal in price and consumption patterns broke down during the 1980s; that many industrial minerals are cyclical too; and that prices for metals as a group are no more unstable than those of other primary commodities.

Is Depletion Likely to Create Significant Scarcities of Future Petroleum Resources

Some energy analysts are concerned that the world will soon face a global crisis due to dwindling petroleum resources and a peak in oil production. To shed light on the subject, we have assessed the threat that depletion poses to the availability of petroleum resources by estimating cumulative availability curves for conventional petroleum (oil, gas, and natural gas liquids) and for three unconventional sources of liquids (heavy oil, oil sands, and oil shale). Our analysis extends the important study conducted by the US Geological Survey (World petroleum assessment. CD-ROM. U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, 2000) on this topic by taking account of (1) conventional petroleum resources from provinces not assessed by the Survey or other organizations, (2) future reserve growth, (3) unconventional sources of liquids, and (4) production costs.

A market-clearing model of the uranium and enrichment industries

A market-clearing model of the uranium and enrichment industries through 2030 is presented. Built around thorough databases of primary and secondary uranium supplies as well as enrichment facilities, the model derives market-clearing conditions by locating the intersections between the annual supply-and-demand curves for uranium and enrichment services. Considering the effects of secondary supplies including highly enriched and natural uranium inventories along with depleted uranium enrichment, the model solves embedded optimization problems to account for trade-offs between uranium and enrichment requirements. The model can inform policy decisions tied to uranium inventory management and sale and market effects of purchase and disbursement from a uranium bank. This paper documents the methodologies behind the model, describes a stochastic implementation to propagate uncertainties, and contrasts its forecasts to static projections. Further, it is applied to an illustrative reference case featuring moderate (2.6%/yr) demand growth for reactor fuel. The model predicts near-level uranium prices with declining separative work unit prices and enrichment tails assays through the mid-2020s. This behavior is largely driven by the coming online of several new centrifuge enrichment plants and capacity expansions at others, which encourages more aggressive tails assays while suppressing uranium requirements.

Managing for successful mineral exploration: A review

Abstract The financial returns to mineral exploration are highly skewed - a few companies find exploration highly profitable, while most find it at best a marginal economic activity. In an attempt to identify those characteristics of the successful few, this paper reviews the literature on managing mineral exploration and on two other business activities characterized by long lead times and uncertain rewards: oil and gas exploration and industrial research and development.

Exploration and access to public lands

Abstract The issue of access to public lands for mineral exploration is much more controversial in the USA than in Canada because the USA has more competing uses for its public lands. Current US policies governing exploration on public lands need major overhaul including, most importantly, significant revision of the Mining Law of 1872. In Canada, on the other hand, incremental reforms of existing policies seem to be more appropriate. There is little to suggest that restrictive land-use policies have contributed significantly to recent problems of international competitiveness in the mining industries of either the USA or Canada.

Environmental Impacts, Health and Safety Impacts, and Financial Costs of the Front End of the Nuclear Fuel Cycle

FEFC processes, unlike many of the proposed fuel cycles and technologies under consideration, involve mature operational processes presently in use at a number of facilities worldwide. This report identifies significant impacts resulting from these current FEFC processes and activities. Impacts considered to be significant are those that may be helpful in differentiating between fuel cycle performance and for which the FEFC impact is not negligible relative to those from the remainder of the full fuel cycle. This report: • Defines ‘representative’ processes that typify impacts associated with each step of the FEFC, • Establishes a framework and architecture for rolling up impacts into normalized measures that can be scaled to quantify their contribution to the total impacts associated with various fuel cycles, and • Develops and documents the bases for estimates of the impacts and costs associated with each of the representative FEFC processes.