Rodolfo Maino

China: Strengthening Monetary Policy Implementation

The Peoples Bank of China (PBC) has made great strides in modernizing its monetary policy frameworks but their effectiveness will diminish as the sophistication of the economy increases. Empirical evidence supports maintaining a reference to money in Chinas monetary strategy and enhancing the role of interest rates in its conduct. We advocate adoption of an eclectic strategy involving the monitoring of several indicators, and of a short-term interest rate as the operational target. The PBC should be granted discretion to change its policy rate, and there are no technical obstacles for such a move to occur in the near future.

Inflation Targeting in Dollarized Economies

The shift to inflation targeting has contributed to the relatively low inflation observed in some emerging market economies although, as noted by many economists, the preconditions required for a successful implementation were not in place. The existence of managed exchange rate regimes, a narrow base of domestic nominal financial assets, the lack of market instruments to hedge exchange rate risks, together with fear of floating and dollarization, have been stressed as factors that might weaken the efficacy of monetary policy. By examining various aspects of monetary transmission and policy formulation in two highly dollarized economies (Peru and Bolivia) vis-a-vis two economies with low levels of dollarization (Chile and Colombia), we found that, while dollarization imposes differences in both the transmission capacity of monetary policy and its impact on real and financial sectors, it does not preclude the use of inflation targeting as a policy regime.

Monetary Transmission Mechanisms in Belarus

We explore monetary policy transmission by estimating VAR impulse response functions to illustrate the Belarusian economys response to unexpected changes in policy and exogenous variables. We find a significant exchange rate pass-through to prices, and interest rate policy following, rather than leading, financial market developments. Our estimated monetary policy reaction function shows the central bank striking a balance between real exchange rate stability and containing inflation. We discuss dollarization, administrative interventions, and other features complicating monetary policy transmission, review specific constraints and vulnerabilities, and conclude with observations on possible measures that could raise the effectiveness of monetary policy in Belarus.

Monetary Policy Implementation: Results from a Survey

Since the early 1990s, the IMF has been advising countries to shift to the use of indirect instruments for executing monetary policy. This paper provides information about a monetary policy instruments database, maintained by the Monetary and Capital Markets Department of the IMF. We offer an overview of the information contained in the database in the form of comparative summary tables and graphs to illustrate the use of monetary policy instruments by groups of countries (developing, emerging market and developed countries). The main trend that can be identified from the database information is the increasing reliance on money market operations for monetary policy implementation. We emphasize the relevance and usefulness of the data collected through periodic surveys of central banks, for general descriptive and analytical purposes.

Islamic Finance in Sub-Saharan Africa; Status and Prospects

Islamic finance is a fast growing activity in world markets. This paper provides a survey on Islamic Finance in SSA. Ongoing activities include Islamic banking, sukuk issuances (to finance infrastructure projects), Takaful (insurance), and microfinance. While not yet significant in most Sub-Saharan countries, several features make Islamic finance instruments relevant to the region, in particular the ability to foster SMEs and micro-credit activtities. As a first step, policy makers could introduce Islamic financing windows within the conventional system and facilitate sukuk issuance to tap foreign investors. The entrance of full-fleged Islamic banks require addressing systemic issues, and adapting the crisis management and resolution frameworks. The IMF can play a role by sharing international experiences and providing advice on supervisory and regulatory frameworks as needed.

Macroprudential Policies for a Resource Rich Economy the Case of Mongolia

This paper explores the extent to which macroprudential tools can be used to manage banking sector risks in Mongolia, a commodity producing country exposed to both procyclical and cross-sectional financial sector risks. Loose fiscal policy, rising credit activity, and heightened risk appetite attributable to the commodity boom are fuelling price volatility in asset markets, posing significant risks to financial stability if left unchecked. Rising interconnectedness, potential increase in dollarization and concentrated exposures are compounding those risks. Macroprudential tools can complement fiscal and monetary policy adjustments to avoid the buildup of vulnerabilities in the banking sector.

Dollarization in Sub-Saharan Africa : Experiences and Lessons

Dollarization—the use of foreign currencies as a medium of exchange, store of value, or unit of account—is a notable feature of financial development under macroeconomically fragile conditions. It has emerged as a key factor explaining vulnerabilities and currency crises, which have long been observed in Latin America, parts of Asia, and Eastern Europe. Dollarization is also present, prominently, in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) where it remains significant and persistent at over 30 percent rates for both bank loans and deposits—although it has not increased significantly since 2001. However, progress in reducing dollarization has lagged behind other regions and, in this regard, it is legitimate to ask whether this phenomenon is an important concern in SSA. This study fills a gap in the literature by analyzing these issues with specific reference to the SSA region on the basis of the evidence for the past decade.

Monetary Policy Implementation in China: Past, Present, and Prospects

While much has already been achieved, monetary policy implementation in China is still in transition. The effectiveness of the current framework, which still relies intensively on rules-based measures, is likely to diminish over time as the sophistication of the economy increases. The authorities are faced with the following challenges: (i) the choice of a nominal anchor; (ii) the choice of an operating target; (iii) the choice of operating instruments; and (iv) the right timing to introduce greater flexibility of the exchange rate. This chapter reviews the framework for monetary policy implementation in China by summarizing the practice of monetary policy over the past 30 years and by discussing the way forward.

Evolving Banking Trends in Sub-Saharan Africa; Key Features and Challenges

Banking in SSA has undergone very significant changes over the last two decades. Financial liberalization and related reforms, upgrades in institutional and more recently the expansion of cross-border banking activities and the rapid development of Pan-African banking groups are signaling greater financial integration and significant changes in the African banking and financial landscape. Nonetheless, excess liquidity in many countries reflects limited lending opportunities and, despite improvements, asset quality and provisioning remain comparatively low. Dollarization has also been a persistent characteristic in several natural resource-dependent economies. This paper discusses key stylized facts and trends of banking development in SSA, looking at a variety of dimensions such as size, depth, soundness, and efficiency. It also assess the rapid expansion of pan-African banking groups, which have overtaken the role of the European and U.S. banks that had traditionally dominated banking activities in SSA, creating significant cross-border networks and becoming the largest participants in new syndicates and large bilateral loans to finance infrastructure development.

From Stress to Costress: Stress Testing Interconnected Banking Systems

This paper presents an integrated framework for assessing systemic risk. The framework models banks’ capital asset ratios as a function of future losses and credit growth using a generalized method of moments to calibrate shocks to credit quality and credit growth. The analysis is complemented by a simple measure of systemic risk, which captures tail risk comovement among banks in the system. The main contribution of this paper is to advance a simple framework to integrate systemic risk scenarios that assess the impact of aggregate and idiosyncratic factors. The analysis is based on CreditRisk , which uses analytical techniques - similar to those applied in the insurance industry - to estimate banks’ credit portfolio loss distributions, making no assumptions about the cause of default.