Rodrigo Saens

Does energy use cause economic growth in Latin America

This study analyses the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth, using annual panel data from 16 Latin American countries over the period 1971–2001. We use a random coefficient (RC) method to control for both finite sample and sample-heterogeneity biases. Our results show (1) a long-run relationship between real GDP, energy consumption, labour force and real capital stock and (2) a long-run unidirectional causality running from energy to economic growth. These results support the energy-driven growth hypothesis.

Extensión y Aplicación de AspectZ a la Administración de un Sistema de Fichas de Salud Electrónicas en Chile

This paper presents an extension of AspectZ to model the requirements of software that manages a system of electronic health records in Chile: SYSFIC 1.0. AspectZ is an aspect-oriented language that preserves the basic characteristics of language Z and that aims to encapsulate cross-cutting concerns of a system into separate and independent entities. The application includes the use of Unified Modeling Language (UML) diagrams and a formal modeling of the system using AspectZ. The main features of the aspect-oriented modeling paradigm, such as the separation of concerns and the reduction and elimination of scattered and tangled code, are discussed. The results of this study show that the combination of aspect-oriented modeling and a formal method of software development allow obtaining more reliable solutions for critical information systems such as SYSFIC.

INCLUDING RISK IN ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS:A STOCHASTIC SIMULATION MODEL FOR BLUEBERRY INVESTMENT DECISIONS IN CHILE

The traditional method of net present value (NPV) to analyze the economic profitability of an investment (based on a deterministic approach) does not adequately represent the implicit risk associated with different but correlated input variables. Using a stochastic simulation approach for evaluating the profitability of blueberry (Vaccinium corymbosum L.) production in Chile, the objective of this study is to illustrate the complexity of including risk in economic feasibility analysis when the project is subject to several but correlated risks. The results of the simulation analysis suggest that the non-inclusion of the intratemporal correlation between input variables underestimate the risk associated with investment decisions. The methodological contribution of this study illustrates the complexity of the interrelationships between uncertain variables and their impact on the convenience of carrying out this type of business in Chile. The steps for the analysis of economic viability were: First, adjusted probability distributions for stochastic input variables (SIV) were simulated and validated. Second, the random values of SIV were used to calculate random values of variables such as production, revenues, costs, depreciation, taxes and net cash flows. Third, the complete stochastic model was simulated with 10,000 iterations using random values for SIV. This result gave information to estimate the probability distributions of the stochastic output variables (SOV) such as the net present value, internal rate of return, value at risk, average cost of production, contribution margin and return on capital. Fourth, the complete stochastic model simulation results were used to analyze alternative scenarios and provide the results to decision makers in the form of probabilities, probability distributions, and for the SOV probabilistic forecasts. The main conclusion shown that this project is a profitable alternative investment in fruit trees in Chile.

The country-brand in the wine industry: how important is variety specialization?

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze whether or not the reputation of a region/country in the international wine market depends on a region/country’s efforts to specialize in a specific grape variety. Design/methodology/approach Data on 19,959 bottles of wine corresponding to six vintages across ten wine producing regions worldwide are used to estimate a hedonic price model that measures consumer valuations of the different wine attributes. Findings The results of this study show that although variety specialization has successfully underpinned the reputation of some New World regions, such as the Napa Valley (with its Cabernet Sauvignon) or Oregon (with its Pinot Noir); in others, such as Australia (with its Shiraz), this has not been successful. Practical implications Over the last ten years, the exponential growth of Australian bulk wine exports has seriously harmed the reputation of Australian wine. With respect to the Napa Valley wines, price discount received by Australian wines increases between the 1997 and 2007 vintage from 33 to 61 percent. Thus, in order to successfully build a collective reputation of an entrant (New World) country, an institutional framework that mediates differences of interest between the large and small vineyards and, above all, that regulates the free-rider problem in the wine market is required. Originality/value This paper empirically illustrates how cooperative (and non-cooperative) behavior between firms can help to build (and to destroy) collective reputation of wines that come from the same region or country.