Roger Collet

Is the stagnation of individual car travel a general phenomenon in France ? A Time-Series analysis by zone of residence and standard of living

At the aggregate level, the growth in individual car use (in vehicle*kilometres per adult) over time has considerably slowed down in France in the 2000s, but is this tendency observed whatever the area and standard of living? Relying on annual data drawn from the French Household Continuous Surveys (1974–1994) and the Car Fleet surveys (1994–2010), time-series of annual mileage per adult is compared in the four quartiles of the household income scale, in three types of zone: core cities, suburbs and low-density areas. We observe that the recent stagnation of individual car use is a general phenomenon, as it has occurred in all the income groups and in all the areas, but at different levels and moments in time nonetheless. In the 2000s, fuel price has dramatically increased, providing a likely explanation for the slowdown observed in the time-series. Using a Chapman–Richards growth model where the saturation level depends on economic factors, we disentangle their effect from the diffusion process of individual car use over time. As expected, the saturation level is found to be an increasing function of income, and a decreasing function of fuel price and population density. Besides, the estimation results show that the diffusion of individual car use among low-income households in 2010 was still ongoing in all the types of zone, while it was ending for high-income households. Moreover, the model assumes that the fuel price sensitivity of individual car use is decreasing as the standard of living raises: it is probably the combination of these effects that has led the annual mileage per adult to stabilize in the 2000s.

Generating Internationally Comparable Figures on Long-Distance Travel for Europe

This paper discusses available household survey data on long-distance travel (LDT) and presents harmonized figures on LDT in Europe. First, there is a comparison of the results of different household travel surveys about LDT. The findings of this comparison have important implications for the methodology of surveying LDT: conventional mobility diary surveys are better than LDT surveys in capturing journeys up to 200 km. LDT surveys perform better in capturing travel only beyond 400 km. Second, the paper presents the first internationally comparable figures on LDT demand for Europe. These figures have been compiled by using different sources of information, avoiding the drawbacks of the different surveys. The results indicate that in northern and central Europe there is higher demand for LDT than in the south. Moreover, the results illustrate how policies and public-transport supply affect the modal split in LDT: in countries with a high-quality railroad supply, such as Switzerland, the railroad share is significantly higher than in other countries. Countries with a liberalized, interurban bus market, in contrast, have a significantly higher bus mode share.