Roger I. Glass

Grand challenges in global mental health

A consortium of researchers, advocates and clinicians announces here research priorities for improving the lives of people with mental illness around the world, and calls for urgent action and investment.

Oral Rotavirus Vaccines: How Well Will They Work Where They Are Needed Most?

Rotavirus vaccines hold promise to decrease the burden of severe diarrhea in the poorest countries, where 85% of deaths due to rotavirus occur. However, the potency of live oral vaccines is lower in these challenging settings than in middle- and upper-income countries. Many hypotheses have been suggested to explain these differences that could provide clues to improve the ultimate success of these novel vaccines. Although introduction today of even moderately effective vaccines will decrease the morbidity and mortality associated with rotavirus in low-income settings, research is urgently needed to understand why these differences in efficacy occur and what could be done to improve vaccine performance to maximize the life-saving benefits of vaccination.

Molecular Epidemiology of Genogroup II-Genotype 4 Noroviruses in the United States between 1994 and 2006

ABSTRACT Human noroviruses (NoVs) of genogroup II, genotype 4 (GII.4) are the most common strains detected in outbreaks of acute gastroenteritis worldwide. To gain insight into the epidemiology and genetic variation of GII.4 strains, we analyzed 773 NoV outbreaks reported to the CDC from 1994 to 2006. Of these NoV outbreaks, 629 (81.4%) were caused by GII viruses and 342 (44.2%) were caused by GII.4 strains. The proportion of GII.4 outbreaks increased from 5% in 1994 to 85% in 2006, but distinct annual differences were noted, including sharp increases in 1996, 2003, and 2006 each associated with newly emerging GII.4 strains. Sequence analysis of the full-length VP1 gene of GII.4 strains identified in this study and from GenBank segregated these viruses into at least 9 distinct subclusters which had 1.3 to 3.2% amino acid variation between strains in different subclusters. We propose that GII.4 subclusters be defined as having >5% sequence variation between strains. Our data confirm other studies on the rapid emergence and displacement of highly virulent GII.4 strains.

Demographic Variability, Vaccination, and the Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Rotavirus Epidemics

Ecology of Diarrhea Rotavirus is an important cause of morbidity and mortality globally, and, although the infection takes a terrible toll on infant lives, its epidemiology is rather poorly known. New vaccines have become available and are being introduced in the United States prior to global rollout, but they may have some unexpected effects on disease dynamics. Pitzer et al. (p. 290; see the Perspective by Medley and Nokes) analyzed data and developed models describing the epidemiology of rotavirus before and during adoption of the vaccine. Ecological analysis showed that the birth rate predicted the timing of epidemics much better than climatic variables and that shifts in birth rates explained changes over the years. But as increasing numbers of infants are vaccinated, the pool of susceptible individuals in the population will be reduced, which will affect the annual waves of geographic spread of rotavirus. Diarrhea-causing rotavirus epidemics can be predicted by shifts in birth rate rather than by seasonal variables. Historically, annual rotavirus activity in the United States has started in the southwest in late fall and ended in the northeast 3 months later; this trend has diminished in recent years. Traveling waves of infection or local environmental drivers cannot account for these patterns. A transmission model calibrated against epidemiological data shows that spatiotemporal variation in birth rate can explain the timing of rotavirus epidemics. The recent large-scale introduction of rotavirus vaccination provides a natural experiment to further test the impact of susceptible recruitment on disease dynamics. The model predicts a pattern of reduced and lagged epidemics postvaccination, closely matching the observed dynamics. Armed with this validated model, we explore the relative importance of direct and indirect protection, a key issue in determining the worldwide benefits of vaccination.

The Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS) of Diarrheal Disease in Infants and Young Children in Developing Countries: Epidemiologic and Clinical Methods of the Case/Control Study

Background. Diarrhea is a leading cause of illness and death among children aged <5 years in developing countries. This paper describes the clinical and epidemiological methods used to conduct the Global Enteric Multicenter Study (GEMS), a 3-year, prospective, age-stratified, case/control study to estimate the population-based burden, microbiologic etiology, and adverse clinical consequences of acute moderate-to-severe diarrhea (MSD) among a censused population of children aged 0–59 months seeking care at health centers in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Methods. GEMS was conducted at 7 field sites, each serving a population whose demography and healthcare utilization practices for childhood diarrhea were documented. We aimed to enroll 220 MSD cases per year from selected health centers serving each site in each of 3 age strata (0–11, 12–23, and 24–59 months), along with 1–3 matched community controls. Cases and controls supplied clinical, epidemiologic, and anthropometric data at enrollment and again approximately 60 days later, and provided enrollment stool specimens for identification and characterization of potential diarrheal pathogens. Verbal autopsy was performed if a child died. Analytic strategies will calculate the fraction of MSD attributable to each pathogen and the incidence, financial costs, nutritional consequences, and case fatality overall and by pathogen. Conclusions. When completed, GEMS will provide estimates of the incidence, etiology, and outcomes of MSD among infants and young children in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. This information can guide development and implementation of public health interventions to diminish morbidity and mortality from diarrheal diseases.

A Major Environmental Cause of Death

Exposure to indoor air pollution from household burning and solid fuels affects nearly half of the worlds population. The World Health Organization (WHO) lists indoor air pollution (IAP) (1) from primitive household cooking fires as the leading environmental cause of death in the world, as it contributes to nearly 2.0 million deaths annually (2)—more deaths than are caused each year by malaria. Almost half of the planet lives in poverty, and those households generally use biomass (wood, crop residues, charcoal, or dung) or coal as fuel for cooking and heating. The primitive fires typically fill homes with dense smoke, blackening walls and ceilings and sickening those within.

Fulfilling the promise of rotavirus vaccines: how far have we come since licensure?

Rotavirus is the most common cause of fatal and severe childhood diarrhoea worldwide. Two new rotavirus vaccines have shown efficacy against severe rotavirus disease in large clinical trials. Between 2006 and 2010, 27 countries introduced rotavirus vaccination into national immunisation programmes and, subsequently, the burden of severe rotavirus disease in these countries has decreased substantially in both vaccinated and unvaccinated children. Rotavirus vaccination has led to large, sustained declines in childhood deaths from diarrhoea in Brazil and Mexico, which supports estimates that rotavirus was the leading cause of diarrhoeal deaths in these countries. Studies after licensing have provided new insights into these vaccines, such as the duration of protection, relative effectiveness in poor populations, and strain evolution after vaccine introduction. The challenge for policy makers worldwide is to analyse the effect of vaccination in early adopter countries and to assess whether the benefits outweigh the costs and encourage wider dissemination of these vaccines.

Multicenter, Hospital-Based Surveillance of Rotavirus Disease and Strains among Indian Children Aged <5 Years

BACKGROUND Current, nationally representative data on rotavirus disease burden and rotavirus strains in India are needed to understand the potential health benefits of rotavirus vaccination. METHODS The Indian Rotavirus Strain Surveillance Network was established with 4 laboratories and 10 hospitals in 7 different regions of India. At each hospital, children aged <5 years who presented with acute gastroenteritis and required hospitalization with rehydration for at least 6 h were enrolled. A fecal specimen was obtained and was tested for rotavirus with use of a commercial enzyme immunoassay, and strains were characterized using reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction. RESULTS From December 2005 through November 2007, rotavirus was found in approximately 39% of 4243 enrolled patients. Rotavirus was markedly seasonal in northern temperate locations but was less seasonal in southern locations with a tropical climate. Rotavirus detection rates were greatest among children aged 6-23 months, and 13.3% of rotavirus infections involved children aged <6 months. The most common types of strains were G2P[4] (25.7% of strains), G1P[8] (22.1%), and G9P[8] (8.5%); G12 strains were seen in combination with types P[4], P[6], and P[8] and together comprised 6.5% of strains. CONCLUSIONS These data highlight the need for development and implementation of effective prophylactic measures, such as vaccines, to prevent the large burden of rotavirus disease among Indian children.

Distribution of rotavirus strains and strain-specific effectiveness of the rotavirus vaccine after its introduction: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND Concerns exist about whether monovalent (RV1) and pentavalent (RV5) rotavirus vaccines provide adequate protection against diverse strains and whether vaccine introduction will lead to selective pressure. We aimed to investigate the distribution of rotavirus strains and strain-specific rotavirus vaccine effectiveness after vaccine introduction. METHODS We did a systematic review of published work to assess the strain-specific effectiveness of RV1 and RV5 rotavirus vaccines. We classified strains as homotypic, partly heterotypic, and fully heterotypic based on the amount of antigen-matching between strain and vaccine. When studies reported vaccine effectiveness against single antigens (G-type or P-type), we categorised them as either single-antigen vaccine type or single-antigen non-vaccine type. Our primary outcome was strain-specific vaccine effectiveness, comparing effectiveness of homotypic strains with fully or partly heterotypic strains. A secondary outcome was the prevalence of rotavirus strains after vaccine introduction. We estimated pooled odds ratios using random-effect regression models, stratified by country income level and vaccine type, and tested for differences in strain-specific vaccine effectiveness. We assessed strain distribution trends from surveillance reports. FINDINGS In high-income countries, RV1 pooled vaccine effectiveness was 94% (95% CI 80-98) against homotypic strains, 71% (39-86) against partly heterotypic strains, and 87% (76-93) against fully heterotypic strains. In middle-income settings, respective pooled data were 59% (36-73), 72% (58-81), and 47% (28-61). In high-income countries, RV5 vaccine effectiveness was 83% (78-87) against homotypic strains, 82% (70-89) against single-antigen vaccine type strains, 82% (70-89) against partly heterotypic strains, and 75% (47-88) against single-antigen non-vaccine type strains. In middle-income settings, RV5 vaccine effectiveness was 70% (58-78) against single-antigen vaccine type strains, 37% (10-56) against partly heterotypic strains, and 87% (38-97) against single-antigen non-vaccine type strains. No difference was noted in vaccine effectiveness for either RV1 or RV5 in any setting (all p>0·05). Prevalent strains in countries using RV1 were G2P[4] (2198 of 4428, 50%) and G1P[8] (953, 22%), and those in countries using RV5 were G1P[8] (1280 of 3875, 33%) and G2P[4] (1169, 30%). Sustained predominance of a single strain was not recorded. INTERPRETATION RV1 and RV5 exert similar effectiveness against homotypic and heterotypic rotavirus strains. Persistence of specific strains was not recorded, suggesting vaccine-induced selective pressure did not occur. Expansion of rotavirus surveillance efforts to low-income countries and ongoing surveillance are crucial to identify emergence of new strains and to assess strain-specific vaccine effectiveness in various settings. FUNDING None.

Global impact of rotavirus vaccines

The WHO has recently recommended the inclusion of rotavirus vaccine in the national immunization programs of all countries. In countries in the Americas, Europe and Australia that have adopted routine childhood immunization against rotavirus, significant reductions in the burden of severe childhood diarrhea have been observed. Besides protecting vaccinated children, disease rates also appear to be reduced in unvaccinated children, suggesting indirect benefits from vaccination (i.e., herd protection). Early clinical trial data from Africa and Asia are promising, and further efforts are needed to optimize the benefits of vaccination in developing countries where vaccines are likely to have their greatest impact.