Rogier Woltjer

Comparing a multi-linear (STEP) and systemic (FRAM) method for accident analysis

Accident models and analysis methods affect what accident investigators look for, which contributory factors are found, and which recommendations are issued. This paper contrasts the Sequentially Timed Events Plotting (STEP) method and the Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM) for accident analysis and modelling. The main issue addressed in this paper is the comparison of the established multi-linear method STEP with the new systemic method FRAM and which new insights the latter provides for accident analysis in comparison to the former established multi-linear method. Since STEP and FRAM are based on a different understandings of the nature of accidents, the comparison of the methods focuses on what we can learn from both methods, how, when, and why to apply them. The main finding is that STEP helps to illustrate what happened, involving which actors at what time, whereas FRAM illustrates the dynamic interactions within socio-technical systems and lets the analyst understand the how and why by describing non-linear dependencies, performance conditions, variability, and their resonance across functions.

Role-playing exercises to strengthen the resilience of command and control systems

In this paper, we describe how role-playing exercises can be used to strengthen the resilience of command and control systems in emergency management. Through role-playing exercises, the participants gain experience with adapting to changing demands and risk relative to challenges to their ability to predict future risk, adapt, and recover from harmful events. Role-playing exercises at the same time enable researchers to analyse how resilient behaviour emerges, or how the resilience of complex socio-technical systems may be improved. Two role-playing exercises, one concerning forest fire fighting, the other concerning power grid restoration, are discussed to illustrate these concepts.

A case study of information and communication technology in emergency management training

This paper addresses the roles of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) in training for effective emergency management and inter-organisational coordination. Collocation can encourage the ...

Sensemaking following surprise in the cockpit--a re-framing problem

Re-framing is the process by which a person “fills the gap” between what is expected and what has been observed, that is, to try and make sense of what is going on following a surprise. It is an active and adaptive process guided by expectations, which are based on knowledge and experience. In this article, surprise situations in cockpit operations are examined by investigating the re-framing process. The results show difficulties that pilots have in re-framing following surprise, including the identification of subtle cues and managing uncertainties regarding automated systems, coping with multiple goals, tasks and narrow time frames and identifying an appropriate action. A crew-aircraft sensemaking model is presented, outlining core concepts of re-framing processes and sensemaking activities. Based on the findings, three critical areas are identified that deserve further attention to improve pilot abilities to cope with unexpected events; (1) identification of what enables and obstructs re-framing, (2) training to build frames and develop re-framing strategies and (3) control strategies as part of the re-framing process.

FUNCTIONAL MODELING AND CONSTRAINT MANAGEMENT IN COMMAND AND CONTROL: TWO MICROWORLD STUDIES

Abstract Command and control settings are increasing in complexity, and are likely to continue to do so with the envisioned increase in communication and cooperation between interdependent networked units. This paper describes two microworld studies, with a focus on a method for the management of constraints in network-based command and control. The method enables the recognition, modeling, and analysis of constraints, combining goals-means task analysis, functional modeling, essential variables analysis, and generation of constraint-based recommendations for the design of tasks and interfaces. The first microworld study utilizes an emergency management task, the second an adversarial command and control task.

Decision support through constraint propagation in collaborative distributed command and control

In this paper we develop a conceptual model of the interdependences among plans that can be expected to emerge in a collaborative, distributed command and control center. The foundations of the model are the problem space representation of problem solving and analyses of the nature of constraints and their propagation and of the task of planning. The model has informed the development of a series of empirical studies of the propagation of constraints in a simulated command and control center. The CBFire microworld is the test bed for the studies. Analysis of the behavioral data captured by C3Fire would serve to inform the design of an intelligent interface for decision support in command and control that highlights constraints on action and facilitates human decision making