Roland Rau

Ageing populations: the challenges ahead

If the pace of increase in life expectancy in developed countries over the past two centuries continues through the 21st century, most babies born since 2000 in France, Germany, Italy, the UK, the USA, Canada, Japan, and other countries with long life expectancies will celebrate their 100th birthdays. Although trends differ between countries, populations of nearly all such countries are ageing as a result of low fertility, low immigration, and long lives. A key question is: are increases in life expectancy accompanied by a concurrent postponement of functional limitations and disability? The answer is still open, but research suggests that ageing processes are modifiable and that people are living longer without severe disability. This finding, together with technological and medical development and redistribution of work, will be important for our chances to meet the challenges of ageing populations.

Trends in educational and occupational differentials in all-cause mortality in Austria between 1981/82 and 1991/92

SummaryComparative international studies regularly find an increase in mortality differentials by education and socioeconomic group. We are interested in whether the same is true for Austria, a country for which no previous comparable study exists. On the basis of linked death and census records for the Austrian population in the years 1981/82 and 1991/92, we observed a widening gap in educational and occupational differentials of Austrian men in relative and absolute mortality from all causes. The increase was restricted to ages 50 to 74, whereas mortality differentials at younger and older ages were unchanged or slightly lower. The growing gap resulted from increasing mortality advantages for men with tertiary education, the highest educational group. Their absolute mortality and relative mortality risks decreased faster than those of all other educational groups. Educational differentials among women remained unchanged.ZusammenfassungZunehmende Unterschiede in der Sterblichkeit für unterschiedliche Bildungsebenen und sozioökonomische Schichten werden häufig in international vergleichenden Studien nachgewiesen. Unsere Arbeit untersucht, ob dies auch für Österreich zutrifft, ein Land, für das noch keine vergleichbare Analyse existiert. Die Grundlage unserer Untersuchung war die Verknüpfung von Daten der Volkszählungen der Jahre 1981 und 1991 mit Daten aus der Registrierung der Sterbefälle aus den beiden jeweiligen Folgejahren. Wir zeigen, dass die bereits im Jahre 1981/82 existierenden Unterschiede in der Sterblichkeit nach Bildungsstand und sozioökonomischer Gruppe über die Zeit hinweg für österreichische Männer in Bezug auf absolute als auch auf relative Sterblichkeit zugenommen haben. Diese Zunahme beschränkt sich auf die Altersstufen von 50 bis 75; die Unterschiede in anderen Altersgruppen blieben relativ konstant oder verringerten sich leicht. Verantwortlich für diese Zunahme der Sterblichkeitsunterschiede ist die Gruppe von Männern mit tertiärer Bildung, deren absolute Sterblichkeit sowie deren relative Sterberisiken schneller abnahmen als irgendeiner anderen Bildungsstufe. Für Frauen hingegen lässt sich kein Trend über die Zeit hinweg feststellen.

Modulation models for seasonal time series and incidence tables.

We model monthly disease counts on an age-time grid using the two-dimensional varying-coefficient Poisson regression. Since the marginal profile of counts shows a very strong and varying annual cycle, sine and cosine regressors model periodicity, but their coefficients are allowed to vary smoothly over the age and time plane. The coefficient surfaces are estimated using a relatively large tensor product B-spline basis. Smoothness is tuned using difference penalties on the rows and columns of the tensor product coefficients. Heavy over-dispersion occurs, making it impossible to use Akaikes information criterion or Bayesian information criterion based on a Poisson likelihood. It is handled by selective weighting of part of the data and by the use of extended quasi-likelihood. Very efficient computation is achieved with fast array algorithms. The model is applied to monthly deaths due to respiratory diseases, for U.S. females during 1959-1998 and for ages 51-100.

The emergence of longevous populations

Significance Public interest in social and economic equality is burgeoning. We examine a related phenomenon, lifespan equality, using data from charismatic primate populations and diverse human populations. Our study reveals three key findings. First, lifespan equality rises in lockstep with life expectancy, across primate species separated by millions of years of evolution and over hundreds of years of human social progress. Second, industrial humans differ more from nonindustrial humans in these measures than nonindustrial humans do from other primates. Third, in spite of the astonishing progress humans have made in lengthening the lifespan, a male disadvantage in lifespan measures has remained substantial—a result that will resonate with enduring public interest in male–female differences in many facets of life. The human lifespan has traversed a long evolutionary and historical path, from short-lived primate ancestors to contemporary Japan, Sweden, and other longevity frontrunners. Analyzing this trajectory is crucial for understanding biological and sociocultural processes that determine the span of life. Here we reveal a fundamental regularity. Two straight lines describe the joint rise of life expectancy and lifespan equality: one for primates and the second one over the full range of human experience from average lifespans as low as 2 y during mortality crises to more than 87 y for Japanese women today. Across the primate order and across human populations, the lives of females tend to be longer and less variable than the lives of males, suggesting deep evolutionary roots to the male disadvantage. Our findings cast fresh light on primate evolution and human history, opening directions for research on inequality, sociality, and aging.

Rise, stagnation, and rise of Danish women's life expectancy

Significance Life expectancy is the most commonly used measure of health status in a population. Life expectancy has increased rapidly in most western populations over the past two centuries. There has been an ongoing debate about the relative contribution of cohort and period effects on a nation’s life expectancy, but few concrete examples of strong cohort effects exist. In this study, we use demographic approaches to study cohort effects on the life expectancy of Danish women. We identify a clear-cut and strong cohort effect: the case of the interwar generations of Danish women. Health conditions change from year to year, with a general tendency in many countries for improvement. These conditions also change from one birth cohort to another: some generations suffer more adverse events in childhood, smoke more heavily, eat poorer diets, etc., than generations born earlier or later. Because it is difficult to disentangle period effects from cohort effects, demographers, epidemiologists, actuaries, and other population scientists often disagree about cohort effects’ relative importance. In particular, some advocate forecasts of life expectancy based on period trends; others favor forecasts that hinge on cohort differences. We use a combination of age decomposition and exchange of survival probabilities between countries to study the remarkable recent history of female life expectancy in Denmark, a saga of rising, stagnating, and now again rising lifespans. The gap between female life expectancy in Denmark vs. Sweden grew to 3.5 y in the period 1975–2000. When we assumed that Danish women born 1915–1945 had the same survival probabilities as Swedish women, the gap remained small and roughly constant. Hence, the lower Danish life expectancy is caused by these cohorts and is not attributable to period effects.

The Old-Age Healthy Dependency Ratio in Europe

The aim of this study is to answer the question of whether improvements in the health of the elderly in European countries could compensate for population ageing on the supply side of the labour market. We propose a state-of-health-specific (additive) decomposition of the old-age dependency ratio into an old-age healthy dependency ratio and an old-age unhealthy dependency ratio in order to participate in a discussion of the significance of changes in population health to compensate for the ageing of the labour force. Applying the proposed indicators to the Eurostat’s population projection for the years 2010–2050, and assuming there will be equal improvements in life expectancy and healthy life expectancy at birth, we discuss various scenarios concerning future of the European labour force. While improvements in population health are anticipated during the years 2010–2050, the growth in the number of elderly people in Europe may be expected to lead to a rise in both healthy and unhealthy dependency ratios. The healthy dependency ratio is, however, projected to make up the greater part of the old-age dependency ratio. In the European countries in 2006, the value of the old-age dependency ratio was 25. But in the year 2050, with a positive migration balance over the years 2010–2050, there would be 18 elderly people in poor health plus 34 in good health per 100 people in the current working age range of 15–64. In the scenarios developed in this study, we demonstrate that improvements in health and progress in preventing disability will not, by themselves, compensate for the ageing of the workforce. However, coupled with a positive migration balance, at the level and with the age structure assumed in the Eurostat’s population projections, these developments could ease the effect of population ageing on the supply side of the European labour market.

Seasonality of birth in nineteenth‐and twentieth‐century Austria

Abstract We present an analysis of birth seasonality in nine geographical regions within Austria for two time periods, 1881–1912 and 1947–1959. In the early period, geography, climate, and agricultural patterns were related to birth seasonality. By the latter time period, these factors were no longer related to birth seasonality. We propose a “resilience hypothesis,” which suggests two levels of causal influences on birth seasonality. First, underlying the three significant features of birth seasonality patterns around the world are only a small number of major causes. But, second, there are a multiplicity of minor causes that result in small perturbations in these otherwise resilient and consistent patterns.

Probabilistic mortality forecasting with varying age-specific survival improvements

Many mortality forecasting approaches extrapolate past trends. Their predictions of the future development can be quite precise as long as turning points and/or age-shifts of mortality decline are not present. To account even for such mortality dynamics, we propose a model that combines recently developed ideas in a single framework. It (1) uses rates of mortality improvement to model the aging of mortality decline, and it (2) optionally combines the mortality trends of multiple countries to catch anticipated turning points. We use simulation-based Bayesian inference to estimate and run this model that also provides prediction intervals to quantify forecast uncertainty. Validating mortality forecasts for British and Danish women from 1991 to 2011 suggest that our model can forecast regular and irregular mortality developments and that it can perform at least as well as other widely accepted approaches like, for instance, the Lee-Carter model or the UN Bayesian approach. Moreover, prospective mortality forecasts from 2012 to 2050 suggest gradual increases for British and Danish life expectancy at birth.

Europe, the Oldest-Old Continent

Focusing particularly on the European countries in which Jan Hoem has lived his life, we provide an overview of aging and mortality developments in Europe over the last decades. According to the United Nations, Europe is already the oldest continent in the World and will retain its rank for the foreseeable future. It has mainly been reduced mortality rather than low fertility or selective migration that has contributed to this development. If current death rates persist, more than 91 % of Swedish newborn girls can expect to reach age 65. Of those, 75 % will be able to celebrate their 80th birthday. Improved survival chances among the elderly have been essential for the continued increase in life expectancy during recent decades. The number of healthy life-years has continued to grow as well, coinciding with reduced inequalities in age at death. Whereas, these developments are welcome from an individual’s perspective, they put pressure on social security systems in Europe. We conclude by suggesting that the redistribution of work commitments throughout the life course might alleviate some of these challenges for the welfare states.

How long do centenarians survive? Life expectancy and maximum lifespan

The purpose of this study was to explore the pattern of mortality above the age of 100 years. In particular, we aimed to examine whether Scandinavian data support the theory that mortality reaches a plateau at particularly old ages. Whether the maximum length of life increases with time was also investigated.