Roly Gosling

The changing epidemiology of malaria elimination: new strategies for new challenges

Malaria-eliminating countries achieved remarkable success in reducing their malaria burdens between 2000 and 2010. As a result, the epidemiology of malaria in these settings has become more complex. Malaria is increasingly imported, caused by Plasmodium vivax in settings outside sub-Saharan Africa, and clustered in small geographical areas or clustered demographically into subpopulations, which are often predominantly adult men, with shared social, behavioural, and geographical risk characteristics. The shift in the populations most at risk of malaria raises important questions for malaria-eliminating countries, since traditional control interventions are likely to be less effective. Approaches to elimination need to be aligned with these changes through the development and adoption of novel strategies and methods. Knowledge of the changing epidemiological trends of malaria in the eliminating countries will ensure improved targeting of interventions to continue to shrink the malaria map.

Hitting hotspots: spatial targeting of malaria for control and elimination.

Teun Bousema and colleagues argue that targeting malaria “hotspots” is a highly efficient way to reduce malaria transmission at all levels of transmission intensity.

Identification of hot spots of malaria transmission for targeted malaria control.

BACKGROUND Variation in the risk of malaria within populations is a frequently described but poorly understood phenomenon. This heterogeneity creates opportunities for targeted interventions but only if hot spots of malaria transmission can be easily identified. METHODS We determined spatial patterns in malaria transmission in a district in northeastern Tanzania, using malaria incidence data from a cohort study involving infants and household-level mosquito sampling data. The parasite prevalence rates and age-specific seroconversion rates (SCRs) of antibodies against Plasmodium falciparum antigens were determined in samples obtained from people attending health care facilities. RESULTS Five clusters of higher malaria incidence were detected and interpreted as hot spots of transmission. These hot spots partially overlapped with clusters of higher mosquito exposure but could not be satisfactorily predicted by a probability model based on environmental factors. Small-scale local variation in malaria exposure was detected by parasite prevalence rates and SCR estimates for samples of health care facility attendees. SCR estimates were strongly associated with local malaria incidence rates and predicted hot spots of malaria transmission with 95% sensitivity and 85% specificity. CONCLUSIONS Serological markers were able to detect spatial variation in malaria transmission at the microepidemiological level, and they have the potential to form an effective method for spatial targeting of malaria control efforts.

Primaquine Clears Submicroscopic Plasmodium falciparum Gametocytes that Persist after Treatment with Sulphadoxine-Pyrimethamine and Artesunate

Background P. falciparum gametocytes may persist after treatment with sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) plus artesunate (AS) and contribute considerably to malaria transmission. We determined the efficacy of SP+AS plus a single dose of primaquine (PQ, 0.75 mg/kg) on clearing gametocytaemia measured by molecular methods. Methodology The study was conducted in Mnyuzi, an area of hyperendemic malaria in north-eastern Tanzania. Children aged 3–15 years with uncomplicated P. falciparum malaria with an asexual parasite density between 500–100,000 parasites/µL were randomized to receive treatment with either SP+AS or SP+AS+PQ. P. falciparum gametocyte prevalence and density during the 42-day follow-up period were determined by real-time nucleic acid sequence-based amplification (QT-NASBA). Haemoglobin levels (Hb) were determined to address concerns about haemolysis in G6PD-deficient individuals. Results 108 individuals were randomized. Pfs25 QT-NASBA gametocyte prevalence was 88–91% at enrolment and decreased afterwards for both treatment arms. Gametocyte prevalence and density were significantly lower in children treated with SP+AS+PQ. On day 14 after treatment 3.9% (2/51) of the SP+AS+PQ treated children harboured gametocytes compared to 62.7% (32/51) of those treated with SP+AS (p<0.001). Hb levels were reduced in the week following treatment with SP+AS+PQ and this reduction was related to G6PD deficiency. The Hb levels of all patients recovered to pre-treatment levels or greater within one month after treatment. Conclusions PQ clears submicroscopic gametocytes after treatment with SP+AS and the persisting gametocytes circulated at densities that are unlikely to contribute to malaria transmission. For individuals without severe anaemia, addition of a single dose of PQ to an efficacious antimalarial drug combination is a safe approach to reduce malaria transmission following treatment. Trial Registration Controlled-Trials.com ISRCTN61534963

Rapid Assessment of Malaria Transmission Using Age-Specific Sero-Conversion Rates

Background Malaria transmission intensity is a crucial determinant of malarial disease burden and its measurement can help to define health priorities. Rapid, local estimates of transmission are required to focus resources better but current entomological and parasitological methods for estimating transmission intensity are limited in this respect. An alternative is determination of antimalarial antibody age-specific sero-prevalence to estimate sero-conversion rates (SCR), which have been shown to correlate with transmission intensity. This study evaluated SCR generated from samples collected from health facility attendees as a tool for a rapid assessment of malaria transmission intensity. Methodology and Principal Findings The study was conducted in north east Tanzania. Antibodies to Plasmodium falciparum merozoite antigens MSP-119 and AMA-1 were measured by indirect ELISA. Age-specific antibody prevalence was analysed using a catalytic conversion model based on maximum likelihood to generate SCR. A pilot study, conducted near Moshi, found SCRs for AMA-1 were highly comparable between samples collected from individuals in a conventional cross-sectional survey and those collected from attendees at a local health facility. For the main study, 3885 individuals attending village health facilities in Korogwe and Same districts were recruited. Both malaria parasite prevalence and sero-positivity were higher in Korogwe than in Same. MSP-119 and AMA-1 SCR rates for Korogwe villages ranged from 0.03 to 0.06 and 0.07 to 0.21 respectively. In Same district there was evidence of a recent reduction in transmission, with SCR among those born since 1998 [MSP-119 0.002 to 0.008 and AMA-1 0.005 to 0.014 ] being 5 to 10 fold lower than among individuals born prior to 1998 [MSP-119 0.02 to 0.04 and AMA-1 0.04 to 0.13]. Current health facility specific estimates of SCR showed good correlations with malaria incidence rates in infants in a contemporaneous clinical trial (MSP-119 r2 = 0.78, p<0.01 & AMA-1 r2 = 0.91, p<0.001). Conclusions SCRs generated from age-specific anti-malarial antibody prevalence data collected via health facility surveys were robust and credible. Analysis of SCR allowed detection of a recent drop in malaria transmission in line with recent data from other areas in the region. This health facility-based approach represents a potential tool for rapid assessment of recent trends in malaria transmission intensity, generating valuable data for local and national malaria control programs to target, monitor and evaluate their control strategies.

Protective efficacy and safety of three antimalarial regimens for intermittent preventive treatment for malaria in infants: a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial

BACKGROUND Administration of sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine at times of vaccination-intermittent preventive treatment in infants (IPTi)-is a promising strategy to prevent malaria. However, rising resistance to this combination is a concern. We investigated a shortacting and longacting antimalarial drug as alternative regimens for IPTi. METHODS We undertook a double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of IPTi in an area of high resistance to sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine at sites of moderate (n=1280 infants enrolled) and low (n=1139) intensity of malaria transmission in Tanzania. Infants aged 8-16 weeks were randomly assigned in blocks of 16 to sulfadoxine (250 mg) plus pyrimethamine (12.5 mg; n=319 in moderate-transmission and 283 in low-transmission sites), chlorproguanil (15 mg) plus dapsone (18.75 mg; n=317 and 285), mefloquine (125 mg; n=320 and 284), or placebo (n=320 and 284), given at the second and third immunisations for diphtheria, pertussis, and tetanus, and for measles. Research team and child were masked to treatment. Recruitment was stopped early at the low-transmission site because of low malaria incidence. The primary endpoint was protective efficacy against all episodes of clinical malaria at 2-11 months of age. Analysis was by intention to treat. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00158574. FINDINGS All randomly assigned infants were analysed. At the moderate-transmission site, mefloquine had a protective efficacy of 38.1% (95% CI 11.8-56.5, p=0.008) against clinical malaria in infants aged 2-11 months, but neither sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (-6.7%, -45.9 to 22.0) nor chlorproguanil-dapsone (10.8%, -24.6 to 36.1) had a protective effect. No regimen had any protective efficacy against anaemia or hospital admission. Mefloquine caused vomiting in 141 of 1731 (8%) doses given on day 1 (odds ratio vs placebo 5.50, 95% CI 3.56-8.46). More infants died in the chlorproguanil-dapsone and mefloquine groups (18 and 15, respectively) than in the sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine or placebo groups (eight deaths per group; p=0.05 for difference between chlorproguanil-dapsone and placebo). INTERPRETATION IPTi with a longacting, efficacious drug such as mefloquine can reduce episodes of malaria in infants in a moderate-transmission setting. IPTi with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine has no benefit in areas of very high resistance to this combination. The appropriateness of IPTi should be measured by the expected incidence of malaria and the efficacy, tolerability, and safety of the drug. FUNDING IPTi Consortium and the Gates Malaria Partnership.

Epidemiology of subpatent Plasmodium falciparum infection: implications for detection of hotspots with imperfect diagnostics

BackgroundAt the local level, malaria transmission clusters in hotspots, which may be a group of households that experience higher than average exposure to infectious mosquitoes. Active case detection often relying on rapid diagnostic tests for mass screen and treat campaigns has been proposed as a method to detect and treat individuals in hotspots. Data from a cross-sectional survey conducted in north-western Tanzania were used to examine the spatial distribution of Plasmodium falciparum and the relationship between household exposure and parasite density.MethodsDried blood spots were collected from consenting individuals from four villages during a survey conducted in 2010. These were analysed by PCR for the presence of P. falciparum, with the parasite density of positive samples being estimated by quantitative PCR. Household exposure was estimated using the distance-weighted PCR prevalence of infection. Parasite density simulations were used to estimate the proportion of infections that would be treated using a screen and treat approach with rapid diagnostic tests (RDT) compared to targeted mass drug administration (tMDA) and Mass Drug Administration (MDA).ResultsPolymerase chain reaction PCR analysis revealed that of the 3,057 blood samples analysed, 1,078 were positive. Mean distance-weighted PCR prevalence per household was 34.5%. Parasite density was negatively associated with transmission intensity with the odds of an infection being subpatent increasing with household exposure (OR 1.09 per 1% increase in exposure). Parasite density was also related to age, being highest in children five to ten years old and lowest in those > 40 years. Simulations of different tMDA strategies showed that treating all individuals in households where RDT prevalence was above 20% increased the number of infections that would have been treated from 43 to 55%. However, even with this strategy, 45% of infections remained untreated.ConclusionThe negative relationship between household exposure and parasite density suggests that DNA-based detection of parasites is needed to provide adequate sensitivity in hotspots. Targeting MDA only to households with RDT-positive individuals may allow a larger fraction of infections to be treated. These results suggest that community-wide MDA, instead of screen and treat strategies, may be needed to successfully treat the asymptomatic, subpatent parasite reservoir and reduce transmission in similar settings.

Loss of Population Levels of Immunity to Malaria as a Result of Exposure-Reducing Interventions: Consequences for Interpretation of Disease Trends

Background The persistence of malaria as an endemic infection and one of the major causes of childhood death in most parts of Africa has lead to a radical new call for a global effort towards eradication. With the deployment of a highly effective vaccine still some years away, there has been an increased focus on interventions which reduce exposure to infection in the individual and –by reducing onward transmission-at the population level. The development of appropriate monitoring of these interventions requires an understanding of the timescales of their effect. Methods & Findings Using a mathematical model for malaria transmission which incorporates the acquisition and loss of both clinical and parasite immunity, we explore the impact of the trade-off between reduction in exposure and decreased development of immunity on the dynamics of disease following a transmission-reducing intervention such as insecticide-treated nets. Our model predicts that initially rapid reductions in clinical disease incidence will be observed as transmission is reduced in a highly immune population. However, these benefits in the first 5–10 years after the intervention may be offset by a greater burden of disease decades later as immunity at the population level is gradually lost. The negative impact of having fewer immune individuals in the population can be counterbalanced either by the implementation of highly-effective transmission-reducing interventions (such as the combined use of insecticide-treated nets and insecticide residual sprays) for an indefinite period or the concurrent use of a pre-erythrocytic stage vaccine or prophylactic therapy in children to protect those at risk from disease as immunity is lost in the population. Conclusions Effective interventions will result in rapid decreases in clinical disease across all transmission settings while population-level immunity is maintained but may subsequently result in increases in clinical disease many years later as population-level immunity is lost. A dynamic, evolving intervention programme will therefore be necessary to secure substantial, stable reductions in malaria transmission.

Review of Mass Drug Administration for Malaria and Its Operational Challenges

Mass drug administration (MDA) was a component of many malaria programs during the eradication era, but later was seldomly deployed due to concerns regarding efficacy and feasibility and fear of accelerating drug resistance. Recently, however, there has been renewed interest in the role of MDA as an elimination tool. Following a 2013 Cochrane Review that focused on the quantitative effects of malaria MDA, we have conducted a systematic, qualitative review of published, unpublished, and gray literature documenting past MDA experiences. We have also consulted with field experts, using their historical experience to provide an informed, contextual perspective on the role of MDA in malaria elimination. Substantial knowledge gaps remain and more research is necessary, particularly on optimal target population size, methods to improve coverage, and primaquine safety. Despite these gaps, MDA has been used successfully to control and eliminate Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax malaria in the past, and should be considered as part of a comprehensive malaria elimination strategy in specific settings.

Reactive case detection for malaria elimination: real-life experience from an ongoing program in Swaziland.

As countries move towards malaria elimination, methods to identify infections among populations who do not seek treatment are required. Reactive case detection, whereby individuals living in close proximity to passively detected cases are screened and treated, is one approach being used by a number of countries including Swaziland. An outstanding issue is establishing the epidemiologically and operationally optimal screening radius around each passively detected index case. Using data collected between December 2009 and June 2012 from reactive case detection (RACD) activities in Swaziland, we evaluated the effect of screening radius and other risk factors on the probability of detecting cases by reactive case detection. Using satellite imagery, we also evaluated the household coverage achieved during reactive case detection. Over the study period, 250 cases triggered RACD, which identified a further 74 cases, showing the value of RACD over passive surveillance alone. Results suggest that the odds of detecting a case within the household of the index case were significantly higher than in neighbouring households (odds ratio (OR) 13, 95% CI 3.1–54.4). Furthermore, cases were more likely to be detected when RACD was conducted within a week of the index presenting at a health facility (OR 8.7, 95% CI 1.1–66.4) and if the index household had not been sprayed with insecticide (OR sprayed vs not sprayed 0.11, 95% CI 0.03–0.46). The large number of households missed during RACD indicates that a 1 km screening radius may be impractical in such resource limited settings such as Swaziland. Future RACD in Swaziland could be made more effective by achieving high coverage amongst individuals located near to index cases and in areas where spraying has not been conducted. As well as allowing the programme to implement RACD more rapidly, this would help to more precisely define the optimal screening radius.