Ron T. Gansevoort

Association of estimated glomerular filtration rate and albuminuria with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in general population cohorts: a collaborative meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND Substantial controversy surrounds the use of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and albuminuria to define chronic kidney disease and assign its stages. We undertook a meta-analysis to assess the independent and combined associations of eGFR and albuminuria with mortality. METHODS In this collaborative meta-analysis of general population cohorts, we pooled standardised data for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality from studies containing at least 1000 participants and baseline information about eGFR and urine albumin concentrations. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality associated with eGFR and albuminuria, adjusted for potential confounders. FINDINGS The analysis included 105,872 participants (730,577 person-years) from 14 studies with urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) measurements and 1,128,310 participants (4,732,110 person-years) from seven studies with urine protein dipstick measurements. In studies with ACR measurements, risk of mortality was unrelated to eGFR between 75 mL/min/1.73 m(2) and 105 mL/min/1.73 m(2) and increased at lower eGFRs. Compared with eGFR 95 mL/min/1.73 m(2), adjusted HRs for all-cause mortality were 1.18 (95% CI 1.05-1.32) for eGFR 60 mL/min/1.73 m(2), 1.57 (1.39-1.78) for 45 mL/min/1.73 m(2), and 3.14 (2.39-4.13) for 15 mL/min/1.73 m(2). ACR was associated with risk of mortality linearly on the log-log scale without threshold effects. Compared with ACR 0.6 mg/mmol, adjusted HRs for all-cause mortality were 1.20 (1.15-1.26) for ACR 1.1 mg/mmol, 1.63 (1.50-1.77) for 3.4 mg/mmol, and 2.22 (1.97-2.51) for 33.9 mg/mmol. eGFR and ACR were multiplicatively associated with risk of mortality without evidence of interaction. Similar findings were recorded for cardiovascular mortality and in studies with dipstick measurements. INTERPRETATION eGFR less than 60 mL/min/1.73 m(2) and ACR 1.1 mg/mmol (10 mg/g) or more are independent predictors of mortality risk in the general population. This study provides quantitative data for use of both kidney measures for risk assessment and definition and staging of chronic kidney disease. FUNDING Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO), US National Kidney Foundation, and Dutch Kidney Foundation.Background A comprehensive evaluation of the independent and combined associations of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and albuminuria with mortality is required for assessment of the impact of kidney function on risk in the general population, with implications for improving the definition and staging of chronic kidney disease (CKD).

Tolvaptan in Patients with Autosomal Dominant Polycystic Kidney Disease

BACKGROUND The course of autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) is often associated with pain, hypertension, and kidney failure. Preclinical studies indicated that vasopressin V(2)-receptor antagonists inhibit cyst growth and slow the decline of kidney function. METHODS In this phase 3, multicenter, double-blind, placebo-controlled, 3-year trial, we randomly assigned 1445 patients, 18 to 50 years of age, who had ADPKD with a total kidney volume of 750 ml or more and an estimated creatinine clearance of 60 ml per minute or more, in a 2:1 ratio to receive tolvaptan, a V(2)-receptor antagonist, at the highest of three twice-daily dose regimens that the patient found tolerable, or placebo. The primary outcome was the annual rate of change in the total kidney volume. Sequential secondary end points included a composite of time to clinical progression (defined as worsening kidney function, kidney pain, hypertension, and albuminuria) and rate of kidney-function decline. RESULTS Over a 3-year period, the increase in total kidney volume in the tolvaptan group was 2.8% per year (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.5 to 3.1), versus 5.5% per year in the placebo group (95% CI, 5.1 to 6.0; P<0.001). The composite end point favored tolvaptan over placebo (44 vs. 50 events per 100 follow-up-years, P=0.01), with lower rates of worsening kidney function (2 vs. 5 events per 100 person-years of follow-up, P<0.001) and kidney pain (5 vs. 7 events per 100 person-years of follow-up, P=0.007). Tolvaptan was associated with a slower decline in kidney function (reciprocal of the serum creatinine level, -2.61 [mg per milliliter](-1) per year vs. -3.81 [mg per milliliter](-1) per year; P<0.001). There were fewer ADPKD-related adverse events in the tolvaptan group but more events related to aquaresis (excretion of electrolyte-free water) and hepatic adverse events unrelated to ADPKD, contributing to a higher discontinuation rate (23%, vs. 14% in the placebo group). CONCLUSIONS Tolvaptan, as compared with placebo, slowed the increase in total kidney volume and the decline in kidney function over a 3-year period in patients with ADPKD but was associated with a higher discontinuation rate, owing to adverse events. (Funded by Otsuka Pharmaceuticals and Otsuka Pharmaceutical Development and Commercialization; TEMPO 3:4 ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00428948.).

Comparison of risk prediction using the CKD-EPI equation and the MDRD Study equation for estimated glomerular filtration rate

CONTEXT The Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) equation more accurately estimates glomerular filtration rate (GFR) than the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) Study equation using the same variables, especially at higher GFR, but definitive evidence of its risk implications in diverse settings is lacking. OBJECTIVE To evaluate risk implications of estimated GFR using the CKD-EPI equation compared with the MDRD Study equation in populations with a broad range of demographic and clinical characteristics. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS A meta-analysis of data from 1.1 million adults (aged ≥ 18 years) from 25 general population cohorts, 7 high-risk cohorts (of vascular disease), and 13 CKD cohorts. Data transfer and analyses were conducted between March 2011 and March 2012. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES All-cause mortality (84,482 deaths from 40 cohorts), cardiovascular mortality (22,176 events from 28 cohorts), and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) (7644 events from 21 cohorts) during 9.4 million person-years of follow-up; the median of mean follow-up time across cohorts was 7.4 years (interquartile range, 4.2-10.5 years). RESULTS Estimated GFR was classified into 6 categories (≥90, 60-89, 45-59, 30-44, 15-29, and <15 mL/min/1.73 m(2)) by both equations. Compared with the MDRD Study equation, 24.4% and 0.6% of participants from general population cohorts were reclassified to a higher and lower estimated GFR category, respectively, by the CKD-EPI equation, and the prevalence of CKD stages 3 to 5 (estimated GFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m(2)) was reduced from 8.7% to 6.3%. In estimated GFR of 45 to 59 mL/min/1.73 m(2) by the MDRD Study equation, 34.7% of participants were reclassified to estimated GFR of 60 to 89 mL/min/1.73 m(2) by the CKD-EPI equation and had lower incidence rates (per 1000 person-years) for the outcomes of interest (9.9 vs 34.5 for all-cause mortality, 2.7 vs 13.0 for cardiovascular mortality, and 0.5 vs 0.8 for ESRD) compared with those not reclassified. The corresponding adjusted hazard ratios were 0.80 (95% CI, 0.74-0.86) for all-cause mortality, 0.73 (95% CI, 0.65-0.82) for cardiovascular mortality, and 0.49 (95% CI, 0.27-0.88) for ESRD. Similar findings were observed in other estimated GFR categories by the MDRD Study equation. Net reclassification improvement based on estimated GFR categories was significantly positive for all outcomes (range, 0.06-0.13; all P < .001). Net reclassification improvement was similarly positive in most subgroups defined by age (<65 years and ≥65 years), sex, race/ethnicity (white, Asian, and black), and presence or absence of diabetes and hypertension. The results in the high-risk and CKD cohorts were largely consistent with the general population cohorts. CONCLUSION The CKD-EPI equation classified fewer individuals as having CKD and more accurately categorized the risk for mortality and ESRD than did the MDRD Study equation across a broad range of populations.

Lower estimated glomerular filtration rate and higher albuminuria are associated with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. A collaborative meta-analysis of high-risk population cohorts

Screening for chronic kidney disease is recommended in people at high risk, but data on the independent and combined associations of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and albuminuria with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality are limited. To clarify this, we performed a collaborative meta-analysis of 10 cohorts with 266,975 patients selected because of increased risk for chronic kidney disease, defined as a history of hypertension, diabetes, or cardiovascular disease. Risk for all-cause mortality was not associated with eGFR between 60-105 ml/min per 1.73 m², but increased at lower levels. Hazard ratios at eGFRs of 60, 45, and 15 ml/min per 1.73 m² were 1.03, 1.38 and 3.11, respectively, compared to an eGFR of 95, after adjustment for albuminuria and cardiovascular risk factors. Log albuminuria was linearly associated with log risk for all-cause mortality without thresholds. Adjusted hazard ratios at albumin-to-creatinine ratios of 10, 30 and 300 mg/g were 1.08, 1.38, and 2.16, respectively compared to a ratio of five. Albuminuria and eGFR were multiplicatively associated with all-cause mortality, without evidence for interaction. Similar associations were observed for cardiovascular mortality. Findings in cohorts with dipstick data were generally comparable to those in cohorts measuring albumin-to-creatinine ratios. Thus, lower eGFR and higher albuminuria are risk factors for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in high-risk populations, independent of each other and of cardiovascular risk factors.

Lower estimated GFR and higher albuminuria are associated with adverse kidney outcomes. A collaborative meta-analysis of general and high-risk population cohorts.

Both a low estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and albuminuria are known risk factors for end-stage renal disease (ESRD). To determine their joint contribution to ESRD and other kidney outcomes, we performed a meta-analysis of nine general population cohorts with 845,125 participants and an additional eight cohorts with 173,892 patients, the latter selected because of their high risk for chronic kidney disease (CKD). In the general population, the risk for ESRD was unrelated to eGFR at values between 75 and 105 ml/min per 1.73 m(2) but increased exponentially at lower levels. Hazard ratios for eGFRs averaging 60, 45, and 15 were 4, 29, and 454, respectively, compared with an eGFR of 95, after adjustment for albuminuria and cardiovascular risk factors. Log albuminuria was linearly associated with log ESRD risk without thresholds. Adjusted hazard ratios at albumin-to-creatinine ratios of 30, 300, and 1000 mg/g were 5, 13, and 28, respectively, compared with an albumin-to-creatinine ratio of 5. Albuminuria and eGFR were associated with ESRD, without evidence for multiplicative interaction. Similar associations were found for acute kidney injury and progressive CKD. In high-risk cohorts, the findings were generally comparable. Thus, lower eGFR and higher albuminuria are risk factors for ESRD, acute kidney injury and progressive CKD in both general and high-risk populations, independent of each other and of cardiovascular risk factors.

Lower estimated glomerular filtration rate and higher albuminuria are associated with mortality and end-stage renal disease. A collaborative meta-analysis of kidney disease population cohorts

We studied here the independent associations of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and albuminuria with mortality and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in individuals with chronic kidney disease (CKD). We performed a collaborative meta-analysis of 13 studies totaling 21,688 patients selected for CKD of diverse etiology. After adjustment for potential confounders and albuminuria, we found that a 15 ml/min per 1.73 m² lower eGFR below a threshold of 45 ml/min per 1.73 m² was significantly associated with mortality and ESRD (pooled hazard ratios (HRs) of 1.47 and 6.24, respectively). There was significant heterogeneity between studies for both HR estimates. After adjustment for risk factors and eGFR, an eightfold higher albumin- or protein-to-creatinine ratio was significantly associated with mortality (pooled HR 1.40) without evidence of significant heterogeneity and with ESRD (pooled HR 3.04), with significant heterogeneity between HR estimates. Lower eGFR and more severe albuminuria independently predict mortality and ESRD among individuals selected for CKD, with the associations stronger for ESRD than for mortality. Thus, these relationships are consistent with CKD stage classifications based on eGFR and suggest that albuminuria provides additional prognostic information among individuals with CKD.

Cystatin C versus Creatinine in Determining Risk Based on Kidney Function

BACKGROUND Adding the measurement of cystatin C to that of serum creatinine to determine the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) improves accuracy, but the effect on detection, staging, and risk classification of chronic kidney disease across diverse populations has not been determined. METHODS We performed a meta-analysis of 11 general-population studies (with 90,750 participants) and 5 studies of cohorts with chronic kidney disease (2960 participants) for whom standardized measurements of serum creatinine and cystatin C were available. We compared the association of the eGFR, as calculated by the measurement of creatinine or cystatin C alone or in combination with creatinine, with the rates of death (13,202 deaths in 15 cohorts), death from cardiovascular causes (3471 in 12 cohorts), and end-stage renal disease (1654 cases in 7 cohorts) and assessed improvement in reclassification with the use of cystatin C. RESULTS In the general-population cohorts, the prevalence of an eGFR of less than 60 ml per minute per 1.73 m(2) of body-surface area was higher with the cystatin C-based eGFR than with the creatinine-based eGFR (13.7% vs. 9.7%). Across all eGFR categories, the reclassification of the eGFR to a higher value with the measurement of cystatin C, as compared with creatinine, was associated with a reduced risk of all three study outcomes, and reclassification to a lower eGFR was associated with an increased risk. The net reclassification improvement with the measurement of cystatin C, as compared with creatinine, was 0.23 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.18 to 0.28) for death and 0.10 (95% CI, 0.00 to 0.21) for end-stage renal disease. Results were generally similar for the five cohorts with chronic kidney disease and when both creatinine and cystatin C were used to calculate the eGFR. CONCLUSIONS The use of cystatin C alone or in combination with creatinine strengthens the association between the eGFR and the risks of death and end-stage renal disease across diverse populations. (Funded by the National Kidney Foundation and others.).

Decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate and subsequent risk of end-stage renal disease and mortality

IMPORTANCE The established chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression end point of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) or a doubling of serum creatinine concentration (corresponding to a change in estimated glomerular filtration rate [GFR] of −57% or greater) is a late event. OBJECTIVE To characterize the association of decline in estimated GFR with subsequent progression to ESRD with implications for using lesser declines in estimated GFR as potential alternative end points for CKD progression. Because most people with CKD die before reaching ESRD, mortality risk also was investigated. DATA SOURCES AND STUDY SELECTION Individual meta-analysis of 1.7 million participants with 12,344 ESRD events and 223,944 deaths from 35 cohorts in the CKD Prognosis Consortium with a repeated measure of serum creatinine concentration over 1 to 3 years and outcome data. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS Transfer of individual participant data or standardized analysis of outputs for random-effects meta-analysis conducted between July 2012 and September 2013, with baseline estimated GFR values collected from 1975 through 2012. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES End-stage renal disease (initiation of dialysis or transplantation) or all-cause mortality risk related to percentage change in estimated GFR over 2 years, adjusted for potential confounders and first estimated GFR. RESULTS The adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of ESRD and mortality were higher with larger estimated GFR decline. Among participants with baseline estimated GFR of less than 60 mL/min/1.73 m2, the adjusted HRs for ESRD were 32.1 (95% CI, 22.3-46.3) for changes of −57% in estimated GFR and 5.4 (95% CI, 4.5-6.4) for changes of −30%. However, changes of −30% or greater (6.9% [95% CI, 6.4%-7.4%] of the entire consortium) were more common than changes of −57% (0.79% [95% CI, 0.52%-1.06%]). This association was strong and consistent across the length of the baseline period (1 to 3 years), baseline estimated GFR, age, diabetes status, or albuminuria. Average adjusted 10-year risk of ESRD (in patients with a baseline estimated GFR of 35 mL/min/1.73 m2) was 99% (95% CI, 95%-100%) for estimated GFR change of −57%, was 83% (95% CI, 71%-93%) for estimated GFR change of −40%, and was 64% (95% CI, 52%-77%) for estimated GFR change of −30% vs 18% (95% CI, 15%-22%) for estimated GFR change of 0%. Corresponding mortality risks were 77% (95% CI, 71%-82%), 60% (95% CI, 56%-63%), and 50% (95% CI, 47%-52%) vs 32% (95% CI, 31%-33%), showing a similar but weaker pattern. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Declines in estimated GFR smaller than a doubling of serum creatinine concentration occurred more commonly and were strongly and consistently associated with the risk of ESRD and mortality, supporting consideration of lesser declines in estimated GFR (such as a 30% reduction over 2 years) as an alternative end point for CKD progression.

The effect of metformin on blood pressure, plasma cholesterol and triglycerides in type 2 diabetes mellitus: a systematic review

Background.  The UKPDS 34 showed that intensive treatment with metformin significantly reduces macrovascular end‐points and mortality in individuals with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes compared with intensive treatment with insulin or sulphonylurea derivatives, despite similar glycaemic control. How this should be explained is as yet unclear. We hypothesized that metformin may have a glucose‐lowering independent effect on blood pressure and lipid profile. In order to test this hypothesis we systematically reviewed the literature and pooled the data obtained in a meta‐analysis.

Incidence and epidemiology of new onset heart failure with preserved vs. reduced ejection fraction in a community-based cohort: 11-year follow-up of PREVEND

AIMS Differences in clinical characteristics and outcome of patients with established heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) and heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) are well established. Data on epidemiology and prediction of new onset HFpEF, compared with HFrEF, have not been described. METHODS AND RESULTS In 8592 subjects of the Prevention of Renal and Vascular End-stage Disease (PREVEND), a community-based, middle-aged cohort study, we performed cause-specific hazard analyses to study the predictive value of risk factors and established cardiovascular biomarkers on new onset HFrEF vs. HFpEF (left ventricular ejection fraction ≤ 40 and ≥ 50%, respectively). A P-value for competing risk (Pcr) <0.10 between HFrEF and HFpEF was considered statistically significant. All potential new onset heart failure cases were reviewed and adjudicated to HFrEF or HFpEF by an independent committee. During a median follow-up of 11.5 years, 374 (4.4%) subjects were diagnosed with heart failure, of which 125 (34%) with HFpEF and 241 (66%) with HFrEF. The average time to diagnosis of new onset HFrEF was 6.6 ± 3.6 years; it was 8.3 ± 3.3 years for HFpEF (P < 0.001). Male gender was associated with new onset HFrEF, whereas female gender with new onset HFpEF (Pcr < 0.001). Higher age and increased N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) increased the risk for both HFpEF and HFrEF, although for age this was stronger for HFpEF (Pcr = 0.018), whereas NT-proBNP was stronger associated with risk for HFrEF (Pcr = 0.083). Current smokers, increased highly sensitive troponin T, and previous myocardial infarction conferred a significantly increased risk for HFrEF, but not for HFpEF (Pcr = 0.093, 0.091, and 0.061, respectively). Conversely, a history of atrial fibrillation, increased urinary albumin excretion (UAE), and cystatin C were significantly more associated with the risk for HFpEF, but not for HFrEF (Pcr < 0.001, 0.061, and 0.033, respectively). The presence of obesity at baseline was associated with comparable prognostic information for both HFpEF and HFrEF. CONCLUSION Higher age, UAE, cystatin C, and history of atrial fibrillation are strong risk factors for new onset HFpEF. This underscores differential pathophysiological mechanisms for both subtypes of heart failure.