Ronald A. Francisco

The Relationship between Coercion and Protest

The relationship between coercion and protest, arguably the core of any theory of rebellion, remains unresolved. Competing hypotheses have emerged from formal models and empirical research. This article uses two forms of the predator-prey model to test these competing hypotheses. Time-series data from three coercive states (the German Democratic Republic, Czechoslovakia, and the Palestinian Intifada) are used to estimate parameters for both models. Results show stable, damped relationships in all three cases. The “inverted U” hypothesis receives less support than its “backlash” alternative, that is, that dissidents react strongly to extremely harsh coercion. Moreover, the study indicates that protesters adapt to coercion by changing tactics.

Coercion and Protest: An Empirical Test in Two Democratic States

Theory: The theory of protest under varying levels of coercion forms the context for an investigation of the data on protest coercion in Germany and Northern Ireland for 11 years (1982-92), aggregated weekly. Hypotheses: The standard inverted-U hypothesis is tested against competing unstable (protest and coercion diverge and oscillate); backlash (coercion increases protest); and adaptation (protesters change tactics after coercion) hypotheses. Methods: Three forms of the biological predator-prey model are estimated with twoand three-stage least squares and supplemented with a Bayesian updating test. Results: The predator-prey mechanism fits the German data well, even in a context of low coercion. The results cast doubt on the inverted-U hypothesis, support the backlash hypothesis and strengthen the evidence that protesters adapt. Northern Irelands terror-based protest and coercion did not conform as well to the predatorprey model, but protesters did adapt in a separate test of Bayesian updating.

MACHINE CODING OF EVENT DATA USING REGIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL SOURCES

This article discusses research on the machine coding of international event data from international and regional news sources using the Kansas Event Data System (KEDS). First, we suggest that the definition of an “event” should be modified so that events are explicitly and unambiguously defined in terms of natural language. Second, we discuss KEDS: a Macintosh-based machine coding system using pattern recognition and simple linguistic parsing to code events using the WEIS event categories. Third, we compare the Reuters international news service reports with those of two specialized regional sources: the foreign policy chronologies in the Journal of Palestine Studies and the German language biweekly publication Informationen . We conclude by noting that machine coding, when combined with the numerous sources of machine-readable text that have become available in the past decade, has the potential to provide a much richer source of event data on international political interactions than that currently available. The ease of machine coding should encourage the creation of event coding schemes developed to address specific theoretical concerns; the increased density of these new data sets may allow the study of problems that could not be analyzed before.

Theories of Protest and the Revolutions of 1989

This study investigates the revolutions in the German Democratic Republic and Czechoslovakia in the context of comparative theories of protest and revolution. After a review of recent methodological advances and the two revolutions, the Gurr-Lichbach mobilization of discontent model is adapted to the two cases and tested with longitudinal data. Rational action theories are integrated into a final model that can be used to analyze protest in authoritarian systems. The model performs better for the two revolutions than any predecessor. In ex post and ex ante forecasting tests, the model generated large prediction error; however, it forecasted historically unprecedented levels of sustained protest.

The political impact of tourism dependence in Latin America.

Abstract This research seeks to test empirically the validity of hypotheses drawn from dependency theory that suggest that economic reliance on tourism creates political dependence. Specifically, it seeks to determine whether the Carribean region, strongly dependent on U.S. tourism, is demonstrably more compliant politically with the United States than other, less dependent, Latin American nations. In addition, the paper examines the relation between political compliance and other indicators of dependence, e.g., investment, aid, and trade. Compliance is measured basically by correlating each nations voting behavior in the UN General Assembly with that of the United States. A series of tests on a number of relevant economic and political variables yields no confirmation of the dependency argument in the political realm.

The SPD of East Berlin, 1945-1961

Political parties perform a variety of functions. Typically we think of them in instrumental terms-as coalitions formed to compete for public office, or as means for mobilizing the masses in support of decisions made by the ruling elites. Other parties serve expressive functions. They may be more interested in ideological purity than in gaining political office. Or they may represent the interests of a single group, such as refugees or inhabitants of a particular area, not because they want to move into policy-making positions but rather to ensure that the groups interests are kept before the public. And for individual members, of course, parties serve still other instrumental and expressive functions. The divided city of postwar Berlin witnessed the development of a party with a rather different type of function: that of a symbol with international dimensions in the emerging cold war. In mid-1945, as the dust settled on the ruins of Hitlers Third Reich and the occupying forces began to encourage the development of democratic political organizations, the Social Democratic Party of Germany (Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands, or SPD) emerged as the leading contender for political power in the countrys former capital. Before long, however, the struggle for control of Germany among the victors, with their differing conceptions of what the new, democratic Germany should look like, began in earnest. This cold war ultimately focused on the fate of Berlin itself. Before the end of 1948 the Allies, with German assistance, had split the city into two parts-the eight boroughs of East Berlin and the twelve boroughs of West Berlin-that were moving ever further apart in political terms. Throughout these three and a half frantic years the Berlin SPD remained intact, but only in an organizational sense. In fact, machinations carried out by Soviet-sponsored leaders of the Communist Party of

Forms of Investment

We survey here the types of investment that are available to individuals. There are many, but by end of our tour, I hope to convince you that stocks and bonds are the optimal choices for income. Complicated investments tend to have high fees and much higher risk profiles. We’ll start with stocks and bonds and then show you other, less wonderful options.

What Can Go Wrong? Troubleshooting Investments

Often we professors are so preoccupied with the pressures of teaching, researching, and publishing that we neglect our financial health. But we must discipline ourselves to plan for our financial future, for the simple reason that no one else will. Whether we house our money in TIAA–CREF or elsewhere, it is important to monitor at least periodically what is going on with your money. Remember, institutions of higher learning will not intervene on our behalf and of course, they pay no pension. Above all else, academics are skilled researchers and learners. It behooves us to harness those talents to protect ourselves from the whims of Wall Street and the financial markets. Economic conditions can deteriorate quickly or go awry. But the more we understand the arcane world of finance and investment, the better off we will be and the more secure we can make our future. In this chapter, we reprise most of the risks we covered in Chap. 2. But our focus is on avoiding pitfalls and distractions as we move toward our goals of preserving capital and increasing income in retirement.

Dividend-Growth Stocks

Inflation is the enemy of most households. It is insidious and hugely underestimated by the CPI. Regardless, the CPI, a composite number of retail prices, is the official measure of inflation. In 1970, the CPI was 38.8. In 1980, it climbed to 82.4; in 1990 it was 130.7 and in 2000 it rose to 172.2. This means that in 30 years prices more than quadrupled; in fact, in 2000 the CPI was 4.4381 times higher than it was in 1970.

Master Limited Partnerships

How would you like to get completely tax-free income both at the federal and state levels? It sounds good, but there is a catch. What if I were to tell you that the income is tax free because it is the return of the money you originally invested? That puts a different spin on things. And that, in a nutshell, is how MLPs work.