Ronald D. Ripple

Hedging effectiveness and futures contract maturity: the case of NYMEX crude oil futures

This article examines the effect of the maturity of the futures conract used as the hedging instrument on the effectiveness of futures hedging. For this purpose, daily and monthly data on the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures and spot prices are used to work out the hedge ratios and the measures of hedging effectiveness resulting from using the near-month contract and those resulting from the use of a more distant (6-month) contract. The results show that futures hedging is more effective when the near-month contract is used. They also reveal that hedge ratios are lower for near-month hedging. Some explanations are presented for these findings.

International Natural Gas market Integration

We explore the relationships among the North American, European and Asian natural gas markets for evidence of convergence and integration for the January 1997 through May 2011 period. The analyses are conducted under a multivariate framework, so the dynamics among the prices can be captured without the necessity of identifying an anchor price series. We find evidence of convergence among the Japanese, Korean, Taiwanese and UK prices. The North American price displays behaviour that is distinct from this group of prices. We conclude that there is not a fully integrated international natural gas market. The integration between European (represented by NBP) and Asian geographic regions appears to be due primarily to underlying contractual mechanisms specifically linking natural gas prices to oil prices rather than the result of market supply and demand interactions. We also find that the relationship among the Asian markets has evolved with Japanese prices adjusting to changes in South Korean and Taiwanese prices.

Income and Energy Consumption in Asia A Panel Cointegration Analysis with Common Factors

The research presented in this paper studies the relationship between energy consumption and income for a panel of Asian economies. The Asian economies represent a dynamic, diverse, and interesting set of countries on which to base an examination of these relationships and the tendencies for these economies to be on a path of convergence and integration in their energy consumption and use characteristics. We start with an overview of the evolution of energy intensities for the individual countries in our study. Panel data methodologies are then employed to gain the advantage of increased explanatory power of the econometric analysis results from pooling time series and cross-section observations. In addition, our panel cointegration analyses incorporate common factors as a means of accounting for variables beyond the bivariate relationship between income and total final energy consumption. The results find support for the flow of causality running from income to energy consumption, albeit with feedback. The results are consistent with and supportive of the findings of the seminal paper by Kraft and Kraft (1978). In addition, the long-run income elasticity estimates for the panel find that the estimates are very sensitive to the inclusion or exclusion of common factors.

The Availability of European Oil and Gas Resources

Purpose This study constructs supply cost curves for conventional and unconventional oil and gas to assess the availability of indigenous resources in the region.

The oil policies of the Gulf Arab Nations

At its heart, Arab oil policy is inseparable from Arab economic and social policy. This holds whether we are talking about the Arab nations as a group or each separately. The seven Arab nations covered in this report-Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates--participate in several organizations focusing on regional cooperation regarding economic development, social programs, and Islamic unity, as well as organizations concerned with oil policies. This report focuses on the oil-related activities of the countries that may reveal the de facto oil policies of the seven Persian Gulf nations. Nevertheless it should be kept in mind that the decision makers participating in the oil policy organizations are also involved with the collaborative efforts of these other organizations. Oil policies of five of the seven Arab nations are expressed within the forums of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OAPEC). Only Oman, among the seven, is not a member of either OAPEC or OPEC; Bahrain is a member of OAPEC but not of OPEC. OPEC and OAPEC provide forums for compromise and cooperation among their members. Nevertheless, each member state maintains its own sovereignty and follows its own policies. Each country deviates from the group prescription from time to time, depending upon individual circumstances.